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May 2025 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not a hot pattern going forward and I wouldn't say all that humid. Probably a lot of 78-85 with some days of dews in 60s. Solid early June weather. June hasn't been that hot lately over last several years. 

Yea I had just looked at the models before I came on here. Was going to say something similar. Nice June weather, but no HHH on the visible horizon. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not a hot pattern going forward and I wouldn't say all that humid. Probably a lot of 78-85 with some days of dews in 60s. Solid early June weather. June hasn't been that hot lately over last several years. 

Totally feasible to have an HHH summer with zero heat waves. Lots of low and mid 80s days.

I think most would be fine with that.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

SATURDAY IS GOING TO BLOW. 

For some reason ... I don't share in this idea that because a weekend day rains, the weekend "blows"   

Be that as it may, I don't mean to belittle anyone's angst for having to deal with a wet weekend.   ...just in so much as druthers are concerned..   I see a huge upside for raining on Saturday and/or Sundays.   Namely, to those that keep perpetuating the "stein" meme?   I hope that every weekend, forever, rains and is ruined for all people that keep typing that word.  

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's also only May 29 lol...I mean I know we've had some year previous where we've had multi-day stretches of 80's with spots already having at least one 90+ day but I mean come on

In 2020 we'd already hit 95F up here, ha.  Looks like 2022 had 10 days already of 80+ up this way too.

We've had some warm Mays in the past 5 years that I think people have come to expect.

This May has BTV at an exact 0.0 departure so far.  Exactly normal.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

In 2020 we'd already hit 95F up here, ha.  Looks like 2022 had 10 days already of 80+ up this way too.

We've had some warm Mays in the past 5 years that I think people have come to expect.

This May has BTV at an exact 0.0 departure so far.  Exactly normal.

Yup...all about expectations really. I would have to wager that for much of the region (for those prone to 90's), most of them on average come from like late July into the 2nd week of august.

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8 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

@weatherwiz when does our awesome SNE Severe season start ???? :twister:

I use May 1st (for no other reason except why not) but its usually mid-June through mid-July where are best window lies. But we can get some nasty stuff in august, particularly on the nocturnal side 

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27 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Subjective, but I consider HHH near 90 with dews near 70. Where is that consistently in the next 2-3 weeks

You said this, "but no HHH on the visible horizon. "

Having a powerful -PNA with a modest -EPO instructing a non-linear tendency for a major trough over the west, while the over arcing AO/NAO mass fields are evolving toward zip blocking, is not consistent with that. 
 

It's all good though ...  I realize that folks "might" not be necessarily referring to these deeper analytic methods/points when arriving to their conclusions.  LOL

But I'm not sure what "consistently in the next 2-3 weeks"  means ?

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The problem next week though is a cutoff just to our south. That will force the heat more over the top. Maybe it's 85-90 up in Quebec, but more modified here. We just don't have a good trough out west that can rip a heat plume heat for the good stuff. 

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