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May 2025 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Dews up here lolz...

 

Screenshot_20250528_150230_Google.jpg

It seems like its been quite the stretch of hot weather across central Florida these last few weeks...really doing a number of SSTs. TPA has had many nights where they only drop into the upper 70's and I think even 80/81 at times...seems quite early for them. 

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Modeling has been inconsistent with that pinch low near the M/A  ...  this GGEM solution from 12z looks nothing like it's 00z predecessor wrt that feature.  The 12z version of that model would blunt warmth from getting east of the Hudson; the 00z would not.  Next week's temperatures would definitely be effected by that should it evolve - some posters are leaping on any model cycle that pimps that an inch more. Haha.  Allowing for minimal doubt as to what they want to see happen... But the surrounding super-synoptic scaffolding (both telecon, and established trends) don't really support that feature being there - for now.  if that changes, this aspect changes along. Until that happens,  I'd side with that being less meaningful. 

The EPS was not cooler than the 00z though for that period.  I'm not entirely sure when the argument is for?  but ... here's a comparison between the 00z vs this 12z EPS mean, centered on Wednesday this next week.  The 12z right (hand side) if anything is arguable a warmer complexion than the 00z

image.png.c53fb980274e0eb669941572afcc422e.png

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Modeling has been inconsistent with that pinch low near the M/A  ...  this GGEM solution from 12z looks nothing like it's 00z predecessor wrt that feature.  The 12z version of that model would blunt warmth from getting east of the Hudson; the 00z would not.  Next week's temperatures would definitely be effected by that should it evolve - some posters are leaping on any model cycle that pimps that an inch more. Haha.  Allowing for minimal doubt as to what they want to see happen... But the surrounding super-synoptic scaffolding (both telecon, and established trends) don't really support that feature being there - for now.  if that changes, this aspect changes along. Until that happens,  I'd side with that being less meaningful. 

The EPS was not cooler than the 00z though for that period.  I'm not entirely sure when the argument is for?  but ... here's a comparison between the 00z vs this 12z EPS mean, centered on Wednesday this next week.  The 12z right (hand side) if anything is arguable a warmer complexion than the 00z

image.png.c53fb980274e0eb669941572afcc422e.png

 

You have to realize ACATT .. all they see is cold .. even on a torch model output . So you just laugh and check the confused emoji to signal they are confused 

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