weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 We are just over a week away from the month of May. The snow shovels and snow blowers are put away, trees are budding and blossoming, flowers are growing, and ACs are being installed. We are entering a season of change and pretty soon we'll all be celebrating the three H's. May also begins the increasing risk for thunderstorms as we introduce greater theta-e air into the region with cold fronts making their way through at times. Looking ahead to the first week of May, it looks like April closes on an unseasonably warm note with strong ridging at 500mb coupled with a cold front approaching at the surface helping to aid in unseasonably warm llvl air with a strong southwesterly flow. While there are subtle hints at some weak troughing across the Northeast to begin the first week of May, independent on any small-scale phenomena, we should begin the month above-average with respect to climo with potential for some over the top warmth given the above-average height anomalies extending well into central Canada. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Hopefully no cutoffs for weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Mayorch looks furnaced 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Ensembles show cutoff potential for early May, leaning towards 2nd week. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of April, which was a mixed bag that's ending much warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Yeah definitely some cutoff potential after May 2-3 or so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 funny ... posted that exact same sentiment re the first little while of May over in that April thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 23 Author Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely some cutoff potential after May 2-3 or so. meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 What a furnace in early Mayorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a furnace in early Mayorch first few days look really warm then we cool to cold for this time of year.. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Friday at 02:37 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:37 AM On 4/23/2025 at 10:21 PM, ineedsnow said: first few days look really warm then we cool to cold for this time of year.. First half of May looks back and forth wrt temps. Some AN days and some BN days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 06:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:39 PM Solid model agreement over the extended on this 12z run ... Hey, ... maybe we can get one of those entertaining fights between Kevin and Kdxken going ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Sunday at 08:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:24 PM 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Solid model agreement over the extended on this 12z run ... Hey, ... maybe we can get one of those entertaining fights between Kevin and Kdxken going ! ACATT will ride the GFS everyday all day , even when it disagrees with its own ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:47 PM 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: ACATT will ride the GFS everyday all day , even when it disagrees with its own ens Will you ride the NBM bus again for this? 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:55 PM gfs ruins May 4th-10th 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 02:09 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:09 PM Yeah GFS has been quite consistent with that. I guess that period is either going to really suck or be quite warm given how close the warmth is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:40 PM Euro has sfc door potential too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:11 PM On 4/23/2025 at 7:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What a furnace in early Mayorch ya looks awesome now.. heat and dews.. oh wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:33 PM Thankfully ... the models are bum pounding another Saturday just like everyone wants - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:10 PM I think Saturday might be ok here. Gonna be a nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:19 PM Yeah we good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:53 PM 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah we good You no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 10:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:52 PM 58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You no good. Fine here as it should move out early.. but it can linger out east as front stalls there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 10:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:58 PM Also remains to be seen how much qpf. It may end up kind of light amounts Steiny in hinies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Also remains to be seen how much qpf. It may end up kind of light amounts Steiny in hinies. Saturday looks like crap but timing could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 01:47 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:47 AM 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fine here as it should move out early.. but it can linger out east as front stalls there Hangs by you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Looking like .50 to 1.00" of rain through Monday morning on the ensembles and the NBM. Trend is moving the heavier precip east at the moment. Saturday evening into Sunday seems to be the target this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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