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4/2-4/3 Potential Major Severe WX Outbreak


Geoboy645
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13 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Im very curious to see how today plays out. Wonder if it will clear out a bit up my way. Had snow showers and sleet this morning. Some good rumbles of thunder and heavy rain. Let’s see what this evening brings

Most often warm fronts struggle to get as far north as modeled around here in the early spring. 

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27 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Looking like a nothing burger locally. South of a Fort Wayne to Lafayette line look like winners in Indiana.

Latest data does suggest that corridor may be the winner. Im liking between lafayette and indy right now.

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17 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Most likely yes for both of us. We might get a local threat but nothing widespread by the looks of things.

Going to be interesting to see how things play out.  Currently showers/storms are holding on in SM.  It doesn't look like we will have any surface recovery for severe weather.  I still hope to get some decent storms this evening as some models are suggesting.

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37 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Looking like a nothing burger locally. South of a Fort Wayne to Lafayette line look like winners in Indiana.

The sun is really trying to peek out here already. Some semi positive signs on the HI RES NAM and HRRR around 5-7 south of 24. Not holding my breath. 

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24 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

it's going to blast through.

This. 
 

Just going to be too little too late most likely, but hodographs look nasty from you to Detroit and south this evening. The ONLY thing we are missing is surface cape. Looks like we might squeeze 4-500 j/kg but probably not enough, if a storm does go up though, it could be a doozy. SPC will probably hang onto the ENH up here for that reasoning. 
 

Edit* 

ENH adjusted south of the state lines. 

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26 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Going to be interesting to see how things play out.  Currently showers/storms are holding on in SM.  It doesn't look like we will have any surface recovery for severe weather.  I still hope to get some decent storms this evening as some models are suggesting.

It’s 32F with icicles hanging from everything right now. That’s usually not a good sign for severe storms. lol

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

My p&c has my high at 68. I've played the I-80 warm front game and expect to see it again

Yeah I think we're in better shape further east. To that point though, these setups love to have spinners riding that toll road

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I think I'm cancelling chase plans for today. Anything north of at least I-72/74 is going to be messy garbage, and moving at 60 MPH (per the warning currently in Knox/Peoria Counties).

Got too used to these (sometimes ridiculously) early season setups performing after 3/5/22, 3/31/23 and 2/8/24.

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image.thumb.png.566647ab666796f5c893c1fb2440d8b8.png

This ACARS profile from St. Louis is bad news from E MO/central IL should any storms get loose ahead of the line. Extremely favorable hodograph for tornadic supercells and a weakening cap.

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1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Satellite showing clearing pushing in there as well as NW IL. If I'm still going to chase today it'll be because something promising fires there.

There already was a t'storm with brief rotation outside of the general thunder in N-C IA.

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12 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

HRRR making every effort to keep the dream alive here.

A little concerned the east wind off the lake is going to stall that front out. Still, some incredible differences on the obs map at this time. It's 45 in Van Wert, OH and 73 in Muncie, IN in just a 60 mile distance

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