2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 1/23/2026 at 9:28 AM, jbenedet said:

Not financial advice but…

Check out Chevron $CVX 

Thank me later.

CVX one of the best performing stocks, up 5.3% on the week, and 3.3% on the day. If you want to keep it secret, that's fine, but do you suggest there is a lag between NG price and CVX stock? That's something I would research. Understandable if you don't want to go into it. I imagine the CVX stock price rise will continue.. ?

[MJO812]

This forecast was a bust. They also busted last year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 12/31/2025 at 8:20 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. 

Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). 

CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast!

What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today):

That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. 

Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected)

The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued... 

Practice trial #1 [CPC long range outlook vs Natural Gas Futures price]

Contract price at time of comparison: March '26 contract $3.159. 

Contract price at end of month(end of forecast period): $4.416

Total price difference: +39.8%

Experimental predictor: 1-0, +39.8% [monthly]

I will continue this in the future, when there is a significant difference between long range predicted temps and short/medium term predicted temps. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This forecast was a bust. They also busted last year.

Yeah, the Rockies and NW are much warmer. Mid Atlantic and Northeast much colder. Larry has gone back to their outlooks of the last 15 years I think and has found that the average seasonal grade is C+/B-. 

[donsutherland1]

January is winding up with the West again having been warmer to much warmer than normal and the East being colder to much colder than normal.

[schoeppeya]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Practice trial #1 [CPC long range outlook vs Natural Gas Futures price]

Contract price at time of comparison: March '26 contract $3.159. 

Contract price at end of month(end of forecast period): $4.416

Total price difference: +39.8%

Experimental predictor: 1-0, +39.8% [monthly]

I will continue this in the future, when there is a significant difference between long range predicted temps and short/medium term predicted temps. 

Im a natural gas trader, you should look at the Feb contract. Went from being dangerously close to slipping below 3 dollars to rolling off in the mid 7's, feb was a wild ride. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Im a natural gas trader, you should look at the Feb contract. Went from being dangerously close to slipping below 3 dollars to rolling off in the mid 7's, feb was a wild ride. 

Yeah, true, I was doing March because I thought the volume at the end of the month of Jan could be too low.. but you could have got out of it today comfortably. It was about a +100% price increase for Feb contract from Dec 31 to Jan 30. In the future I'll do the closest month to said forecast. 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CVX one of the best performing stocks, up 5.3% on the week, and 3.3% on the day. If you want to keep it secret, that's fine, but do you suggest there is a lag between NG price and CVX stock? That's something I would research. Understandable if you don't want to go into it. I imagine the CVX stock price rise will continue.. ?

No idea about the specifics correlation or lag. I just know the correlation is meaningful and positive.

I started looking more at the sector seeing the cold snap caused the price of nat gas to move way up but the big producers didn’t follow likewise.

I then dug a little deeper and saw evidence in the long term price behavior of the major producers that people are rotating into the sector—building positions. Of the group, CVX chart looked the best to me. I also believe natural gas is in a long term uptrend. The recent cold snap was just adding fuel for a breakout.

 

[bncho]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's still a bit west of 2015 IMHO...it does look like we may finally be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, but not enough for this season IMHO. Next year could be great.

You're thinking we're getting a west-based +QBO Nino, or did I misunderstand this post and and the one you replied to?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

No idea about the specifics correlation or lag. I just know the correlation is meaningful and positive.

I started looking more at the sector seeing the cold snap caused the price of nat gas to move way up but the big producers didn’t follow likewise.

I then dug a little deeper and saw evidence in the long term price behavior of the major producers that people are rotating into the sector—building positions. Of the group, CVX chart looked the best to me. I also believe natural gas is in a long term uptrend. The recent cold snap was just adding fuel for a breakout.

Very interesting. I am looking for other ways to trade NG, because 1 Futures contract is $12,300, and on margin a month like this can swing +$40k. That's a big move for 1 month. UNG is the Natural Gas ETF, but it has a downward bias too strong to consider. 

Re: natural gas in an upward trend: It may be, but a current difference between $7.20 for the Feb contract and $4.41 March, says it was more about recent cold this month. The difference was within $0.80 of each other at the start of this month. 

I'm going to do experiment #2, since February looks like another below average month in the east, and the Jan uptick in NG didn't happen when models had it - ahead or way ahead of time - but at Day-0 when it started in actuality.  

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61644-2025-2026-enso/?do=findComment&comment=7984701

March Natural Gas contract currently priced $4.416

One month, Feb 2026 estimated, move: +15%. Projected end Feb 27, 2026 end: $5.078

[jbenedet]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Very interesting. I am looking for other ways to trade NG, because 1 Futures contract is $12,300, and on margin a month like this can swing +$40k. That's a big move for 1 month. UNG is the Natural Gas ETF, but it has a downward bias too strong to consider. 

Re: natural gas in an upward trend: It may be, but a current difference between $7.20 for the Feb contract and $4.41 March, says it was more about recent cold this month. The difference was within $0.80 of each other at the start of this month. 

I'm going to do experiment #2, since February looks like another below average month in the east, and the Jan uptick in NG didn't happen when models had it - ahead or way ahead of time - but at Day-0 when it started in actuality.  

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61644-2025-2026-enso/?do=findComment&comment=7984701

March Natural Gas contract currently priced $4.416

One month, Feb 2026 estimated, move: +15%. Projected end Feb 27, 2026 end: $5.078

You could run circles around me about the short term stuff. I don’t do day trading. Not for me.

I’m big picture. I do well short term only when I zoom way out.

There was a major bottom put in, in early 2024. It’s a bull mkt now. 

The producers basically went no where since early 2022, following the major price decline. But nat gas is in a strengthening bull market…Thats what got me most interested. The recent cold was icingon the cake.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies has it outrightly predicting a reversal 2/12-15: @40/70 Benchmarkthe guru on this!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

You're thinking we're getting a west-based +QBO Nino, or did I misunderstand this post and and the one you replied to?

+QBO...too early to say on El Nino, but we're due for a Modoki El Nino...some of these cool ENSO seasons that are inundated with warmth throughout the western subsurface, such as 1967-1968 and 2008-2009, are predisposed to Modoki El Nino the following season...see 1968-1969 and 2009-2010.

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

They just keep going and going for this cold Northeast. Someone was saying this could be the first time all 3 Winter months were below average in the NE since 09-10 and 02-03. 

Natural Gas jumped another 13% today. I'm going to do a month-end report on the CPC Monthly outlook probability vs NG price later this weekend. It was a big success. Now it looks like that even carries through February. 

Welp, my idea of turning milder in February is obviously going to bust horribly. Congrats @40/70 Benchmark What I’m still pretty confident in is that February is very likely not to be a blockbuster snow month, at least in my area (NYC metro). I looked back at all the La Niña winters to 1979 in my area and none of them had blockbuster February’s for snow, even 1996, January was the really big snow month that winter. The only cool ENSO winter that had a really big February for snow in the last 47 years was 2013-14 but that was just cold-neutral and never actually reached La Niña levels like this one did

[NyWxGuy]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Welp, my idea of turning milder in February is obviously going to bust horribly. Congrats @40/70 Benchmark What I’m still pretty confident in is that February is very likely not to be a blockbuster snow month, at least in my area (NYC metro). I looked back at all the La Niña winters to 1979 in my area and none of them had blockbuster February’s for snow, even 1996, January was the really big snow month that winter. The only cool ENSO winter that had a really big February for snow in the last 47 years was 2013-14 but that was just cold-neutral and never actually reached La Niña levels like this one did

Yeah it looks to be a very cold month but probably very dry as well. I think the key to getting an above average season in the metro is probably a few more overrunning storms. Even when the blocking relaxes a bit, the cold air is so entrenched that any STJ ejection would lead to a widespread winter storm similar to last weekend. Coastal amplification hasn’t happened since January 2022

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies has it outrightly predicting a reversal 2/12-15: @40/70 Benchmarkthe guru on this!

How much of a lag are we expecting for results? Also, how long do the effects usually last?

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

How much of a lag are we expecting for results? Also, how long do the effects usually last?

According to @Stormchaserchuck1the lag is shorter later in winter. Should be within ~2 weeks I think. And lasts usually 2-3 weeks++. But it may already be cold then anyway independent of this likely reversal.

[raindancewx]

The Canadian misplaced the warmest area of the US for January and underestimated the cold nationally. Once today is in, January should end up about 2F warmer than what I had with my analogs from October for most of the US. Locally this month has felt like February. Some cold spells, some warmth, some snow. Its +4F for January, but nothing like the +10F for December.

 

[bluewave]

On 1/30/2026 at 10:24 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

My co-worker and I call that the pre AGW pattern.  Would see that type of pattern all the time pre 2000s...especially pre 1990.  Its become quite rare now.  It always seems some sector of country is a torch and some sector is very cold when we are not wall to wall warm in winter.

That’s what makes this top 5 coldest pattern from January 24th through at least February 2nd for the Central and Eastern CONUS so impressive. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Welp, my idea of turning milder in February is obviously going to bust horribly. Congrats @40/70 Benchmark What I’m still pretty confident in is that February is very likely not to be a blockbuster snow month, at least in my area (NYC metro). I looked back at all the La Niña winters to 1979 in my area and none of them had blockbuster February’s for snow, even 1996, January was the really big snow month that winter. The only cool ENSO winter that had a really big February for snow in the last 47 years was 2013-14 but that was just cold-neutral and never actually reached La Niña levels like this one did

Well, to be fair....I've been too warm all season with respect to my Outlook last fall, despite nailing the pattern save for the late January -NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

According to @Stormchaserchuck1the lag is shorter later in winter. Should be within ~2 weeks I think. And lasts usually 2-3 weeks++. But it may already be cold then anyway independent of this likely reversal.

Shouldn't even be a lag with ample antecedent blocking...another consequence of me missing the current blocking is that we won't have to wait until March to feek the impact of the mid month SSW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I don't love snow prospects in February...actually like March better.

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't love snow prospects in February...actually like March better.

Suppression ? I thought you liked February . Too early to write off the whole month .

[roardog]

49 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s what makes this top 5 coldest pattern from January 24th through at least February 2nd for the Central and Eastern CONUS so impressive. 
 

I think this just shows what some people here have been saying for awhile now, that despite a warmer world, it’s not so warm that it can’t still be very cold if the pattern supports it. The problem we’ve had a lot in the last decade is a bad pacific pattern for cold and a lack of high latitude blocking. Now, if you want to argue that the pattern is influenced by a warmer world, that’s another story but that also kind of goes against what happened this winter too.