2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 1/23/2026 at 9:28 AM, jbenedet said:

Not financial advice but…

Check out Chevron $CVX 

Thank me later.

CVX one of the best performing stocks, up 5.3% on the week, and 3.3% on the day. If you want to keep it secret, that's fine, but do you suggest there is a lag between NG price and CVX stock? That's something I would research. Understandable if you don't want to go into it. I imagine the CVX stock price rise will continue.. ?

[MJO812]

This forecast was a bust. They also busted last year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 12/31/2025 at 8:20 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. 

Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). 

CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast!

What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today):

That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. 

Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected)

The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued... 

Practice trial #1 [CPC long range outlook vs Natural Gas Futures price]

Contract price at time of comparison: March '26 contract $3.159. 

Contract price at end of month(end of forecast period): $4.416

Total price difference: +39.8%

Experimental predictor: 1-0, +39.8% [monthly]

I will continue this in the future, when there is a significant difference between long range predicted temps and short/medium term predicted temps. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This forecast was a bust. They also busted last year.

Yeah, the Rockies and NW are much warmer. Mid Atlantic and Northeast much colder. Larry has gone back to their outlooks of the last 15 years I think and has found that the average seasonal grade is C+/B-.