2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, EasternLI said:

It's quite interesting to me, this strat split potential. Guidance is indicating this would occur during a time where the AO is already negative. I recall reading at one time that if that happens, there may not be any lag time associated. Instead, they can couple quickly through the column and you just get it amplified and prolonged instead. Latest weeklies from today were more bullish.

I am working on an update and pulled up that graphic only to see tepid support, much to my chagrin...until I realized I had left the window open and was viewing guidance from the 16th.  FYI, refreshing that page will not update it...need to manually set run if you leave it open. lol

[GaWx]

On 1/23/2026 at 10:35 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Phase 8 in February starts to get ok but phase 1 in February in Nina is a large warm up. If we have more of a neutral state rather than La Nina by then with a passage through phase 1 in February it is a bit more muted of a warm up. Looks fun though coming up for at least the next maybe 10 days.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

On 1/25/2026 at 10:35 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting did not know phase 1 was warm. We get there by early Feb.

 I finally got to my analysis of Baltimore temp anomalies during Feb La Niña phase 1 since 1975 and I even added the results for the surrounding phases 8 and 2.

 Before I get to those, I also looked at La Niña Febs in general there, which averaged mild (intuitive). That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb.

 There have been 20 La Niña Febs since 1975. The coldest anomaly was only -2 (2022) with next coldest of -1 (2021, 2006, and 1996). In contrast, the warmest was +8 (2023 and 2017) followed by +7 (1976) and +5 (2018, 2012, and 1984). The 20 complete Niña Febs averaged +2.3. So, any Feb Niña phase that’s NN would be relatively cold.

—————

 Here are the results for phases 8, 1, and 2 at Baltimore:

 

Phase 8: 

17 periods

MB 0

B 6

N 4

A 3

MA 4

Avg: +44/61 days = +0.7

 So, phase 8 was NN, which is 1.6 colder than the +2.3 average of all Feb Niña days. So phase 8 has been relatively cold. I suspect that this may come out as the coldest Niña Feb phase but I’d need a lot of time to go through the #s of the remaining phases to confirm that. The only phase with a decent chance to be colder than 8 is phase 3. So, that would be the next phase I’d calculate if I get time.

—————

 

Phase 1:

16 periods

MB 3

B 2

N 4

A 2

MA 5

 Avg: +134 /52 days = +2.6

 So, though it averaged a bit mild, that +2.6 was very close to the overall +2.3 avg for all Niña Feb days. 
—————

 

Phase 2:

18 periods

MB 1

B 1

N 6

A 4

MA 6

Avg: +296/68 days = +4.4

——————

 So, in summary for phases 8, 1, and 2: phase 2 is easily the true mild phase in all senses as its +4.4 is 2.1 warmer than even the +2.3 overall avg for all Niña Feb days. Phase 1 is in the middle with its +2.6 and phase 8 is the coldest with only +0.7.

[BlizzardWx]

I ran this for last nights CMCE. Starting to see more members showing the SSW. 

[EasternLI]

Today's looks a little more bullish than yesterdays. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January forecast did very well, although it was slightly colder than expected due to the unexpected late month -NAO.

There is also a preview of what may be an active February included.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../remarkably...

 

 

 

[raindancewx]

Subsurface for Nino 3.4 is now nearly absent colder than normal waters. Most of the Eastern US is going to finish colder than average by month end, or no warmer than +1F.

Cold has retrogressed hard to the West this month as I've been saying for a while.

[raindancewx]

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

My main interest now is it gonna be west, central or east, lol

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am working on an update and pulled up that graphic only to see tepid support, much to my chagrin...until I realized I had left the window open and was viewing guidance from the 16th.  FYI, refreshing that page will not update it...need to manually set run if you leave it open. lol

ENSO has finally gone up to cold-neutral. Looks like one final burst of easterlies in region 3.4 before it’s totally dead for good. The SOI has finally come down from the severely positive values we saw, but -AAM continuing. The -PDO is still there but obviously well weakened from the ridiculous negative values we’ve seen over the last 5 years.

Read your blog and I agree, next month looks -PNA/RNA, +EPO, +WPO. The only thing saving this from going to an early spring is the projected -AO/-NAO and the *possible* SSWE. Whether or not this ends up just a big SPV stretch/wave reflection or it decides to pull a February, 2018 and do a major SSW with a total wind reversal and complete SPV split and coupling with the troposphere; “locking” the -AO/-NAO remains to be seen

[EastonSN+]

Look like a moderate spike in phase 8 to come

[bluewave]

The closest 500 mb analog for December and January was 1958-1959. While it wasn’t an exact match for all the sensible weather, it was the closest 500 mb pattern to 2025-2026 since 1950. Pretty interesting that was also a rare late November SSW like we just had back in late November. 
 

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

NOV 1958

30-Nov-58

****

****

****

E

E

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Based on the preliminary data, the January PNA has averaged +0.172. That average is poised to increase further over the next two days. Given the PNA forecasts, it is virtually certain that a regime change to PNA+ occurred following the long-duration PNA- as had occurred in all 10 previous cases following the end of winter PNA- regimes of 25 days or longer.

This outcome runs counter to some of the bold claims made on social media. It also illustrates anew why social media influencers, who are often unaware of historical outcomes, among other things, are typically not a good source of forecasting information. In contrast, numerous people here had correctly suggested the risk of a switch from December's PNA- to a PNA+ in January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on the preliminary data, the January PNA has averaged +0.172. That average is poised to increase further over the next two days. Given the PNA forecasts, it is virtually certain that a regime change to PNA+ occurred following the long-duration PNA- as had occurred in all 10 previous cases following the end of winter PNA- regimes of 25 days or longer.

This outcome runs counter to some of the bold claims made on social media. It also illustrates anew why social media influencers, who are often unaware of historical outcomes, among other things, are typically not a good source of forecasting information. In contrast, numerous people here had correctly suggested the risk of a switch from December's PNA- to a PNA+ in January. 

Yea, I had some people giving me the business about how there was strong support for a continuation of -PNA on guidance, blah, blah....well, any forecaster worth a damn doesn't blindly follow guidance. You get paid to discern when guidance is in error, so put the work in and figure it out. Well, I may not get paid for it (financially, but feeds my soul), but I did it.

[michsnowfreak]

Weve all talked about cold and snow, but I should mention that unsurprisingly, the Great Lakes ice cover is well above normal. Lake Erie is like 95% ice covered already.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Judah finally on board for the split. Welcome to early November.

[BlizzardWx]

Apparently the CPC will start using RONI now in their discussions, just like Australia did last year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Apparently the CPC will start using RONI now in their discussions, just like Australia did last year. 

'Bout time.

[brooklynwx99]

well, here we go. not sure when exactly the blocking is going away

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well, here we go. not sure when exactly the blocking is going away

Jeez this is insane. People quickly thought February was going to torch because of La Nina but there were signs of it fading in December. 

This might end up the coldest winter in a long time for many areas.

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez this is insane. People quickly thought February was going to torch because of La Nina but there were signs of it fading in December. 

This might end up the coldest winter in a long time for many areas.

La Niña did not start fading in December lol

@40/70 Benchmark He just refuses to let go of that narrative lol

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

La Niña did not start fading in December lol

@40/70 Benchmark He just refuses to let go of that narrative lol

It was weakening. Dude I wouldn't be talking if I was you and you always have to tag someone because your posts were horrible to start winter

 

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

well, here we go. not sure when exactly the blocking is going away

 

GEFS has been starting to come around to this idea recently too. Euro OP has looked like this for a couple of runs now also.

[schoeppeya]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It was weakening. Dude I wouldn't be talking if I was you and you always have to tag someone because your posts were horrible to start winter

 

To start winter? I think he posted like two weeks ago we were having a classic front-loaded winter just before a massive winter storm materialized. 

[GaWx]

NYC now up to 22” season to date vs 15” avg and the most as of this point since 2015-6! It’s been one heck of a season so far, based mainly on 3 significant snows.

 If they get avg the rest of the way, they’d have a total of 35”. Fwiw, my prediction for the season total, which was made after the 1st storm last month and is the only prediction made for this, is 40”.