2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, EasternLI said:

It's quite interesting to me, this strat split potential. Guidance is indicating this would occur during a time where the AO is already negative. I recall reading at one time that if that happens, there may not be any lag time associated. Instead, they can couple quickly through the column and you just get it amplified and prolonged instead. Latest weeklies from today were more bullish.

I am working on an update and pulled up that graphic only to see tepid support, much to my chagrin...until I realized I had left the window open and was viewing guidance from the 16th.  FYI, refreshing that page will not update it...need to manually set run if you leave it open. lol

[GaWx]

On 1/23/2026 at 10:35 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Phase 8 in February starts to get ok but phase 1 in February in Nina is a large warm up. If we have more of a neutral state rather than La Nina by then with a passage through phase 1 in February it is a bit more muted of a warm up. Looks fun though coming up for at least the next maybe 10 days.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

On 1/25/2026 at 10:35 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Interesting did not know phase 1 was warm. We get there by early Feb.

 I finally got to my analysis of Baltimore temp anomalies during Feb La Niña phase 1 since 1975 and I even added the results for the surrounding phases 8 and 2.

 Before I get to those, I also looked at La Niña Febs in general there, which averaged mild (intuitive). That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb.

 There have been 20 La Niña Febs since 1975. The coldest anomaly was only -2 (2022) with next coldest of -1 (2021, 2006, and 1996). In contrast, the warmest was +8 (2023 and 2017) followed by +7 (1976) and +5 (2018, 2012, and 1984). The 20 complete Niña Febs averaged +2.3. So, any Feb Niña phase that’s NN would be relatively cold.

—————

 Here are the results for phases 8, 1, and 2 at Baltimore:

 

Phase 8: 

17 periods

MB 0

B 6

N 4

A 3

MA 4

Avg: +44/61 days = +0.7

 So, phase 8 was NN, which is 1.6 colder than the +2.3 average of all Feb Niña days. So phase 8 has been relatively cold. I suspect that this may come out as the coldest Niña Feb phase but I’d need a lot of time to go through the #s of the remaining phases to confirm that. The only phase with a decent chance to be colder than 8 is phase 3. So, that would be the next phase I’d calculate if I get time.

—————

 

Phase 1:

16 periods

MB 3

B 2

N 4

A 2

MA 5

 Avg: +134 /52 days = +2.6

 So, though it averaged a bit mild, that +2.6 was very close to the overall +2.3 avg for all Niña Feb days. 
—————

 

Phase 2:

18 periods

MB 1

B 1

N 6

A 4

MA 6

Avg: +296/68 days = +4.4

——————

 So, in summary for phases 8, 1, and 2: phase 2 is easily the true mild phase in all senses as its +4.4 is 2.1 warmer than even the +2.3 overall avg for all Niña Feb days. Phase 1 is in the middle with its +2.6 and phase 8 is the coldest with only +0.7.

[BlizzardWx]

I ran this for last nights CMCE. Starting to see more members showing the SSW.