2025-2026 ENSO

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

NYC has not had a 4" snowfall since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm.

I call baloney on that. Last storm was definitely 4” for most of us and so was 2/13/24, most of city had 4-6”. For what it’s worth, south Queens, Brooklyn; and Staten Island had 6-8” from the 2/17/24 snowstorm but I know that heavy band didn’t reach Central Park. But the other 2 storms reached 4”, they just don’t measure properly 

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies, which are overall fairly similar to yesterday, still have that new +PNA in the means for 1/12-18:

 

 This setup continues more strongly into the subsequent week, 1/19-25, than was seen yesterday:

 

 

Hmm you know what, that pattern shown on that 1/19-25 timeframe of that run caught my eye. It's a pretty interesting one. These are very similar key features displayed, to the key features of the 500mb precursor to PV split pattern. Which would be a leading indicator ~14 days ahead of one should one manifest itself properly. Big trough over East Asia, Big ridge in pacific up through Alaska, Vortex in Hudson Bay and Canada, little bit of SE ridge. Even a subtle hint of the high pressure in the Urals in these height lines. Something else to keep an eye out for if we see that. Lots of interesting things going on this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/24/2025 at 9:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@MJO812Congrats....I was wrong on December snow in NYC, and you were right. Reason being I missed the late month blocking. Let's see if you guys get above my 19-29" seasonal call.

JINX!! Suckah!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/24/2025 at 8:06 PM, raindancewx said:

Here is the warm up no one thought was real - definitely verified as a much warmer period.

I did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/25/2025 at 4:10 PM, GaWx said:

 The best looking H5 map for cold potential for the E US in Jan on today’s Euro Weeklies is this one with a nice +PNA, which is for 1/12-18 (similar to yesterday):

 

Just 3 days ago it still had an ugly -PNA: so there’s been a big change for an ens mean for a week long period

 

Here’s today’s temp map for the same week (similar to yesterday): chilly but I fully expect this would turn much colder than this if the +PNA idea is right

 

Here’s what the same week’s map had just 3 days ago, which is consistent with that ugly H5 then:

 

There is my +PNA. Looks like the blocking reprieve won't last as long as I thought since the Strat and troposphere are remaining uncoupled, but I did get the strengthening PV right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past 

I expect a lot of more Strat help late this year than 2011.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Hmm you know what, that pattern shown on that 1/19-25 timeframe of that run caught my eye. It's a pretty interesting one. These are very similar key features displayed, to the key features of the 500mb precursor to PV split pattern. Which would be a leading indicator ~14 days ahead of one should one manifest itself properly. Big trough over East Asia, Big ridge in pacific up through Alaska, Vortex in Hudson Bay and Canada, little bit of SE ridge. Even a subtle hint of the high pressure in the Urals in these height lines. Something else to keep an eye out for if we see that. Lots of interesting things going on this year.

Book it-

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

I wonder if all the people that ran to Twitter like a kid to post how strong the SPV would be (assuming it meant warmth), will be as eager to post the same data has significantly changed?

WED Update

THURS Update

FRI Update

Still mainly above average for the most part.

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still mainly above average for the most part.

 

Not much, & certainly trending weaker, which has been a repeating trend since NOV. I honestly do think it will make a difference either way, but I am just saying...what people point out & what they ignore is comical. 

[GaWx]

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21.

-NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21.

-NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

Interesting to see if that works out. Pattern does have potential heading forward 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Interesting to see if that works out. Pattern does have potential heading forward 

Problem is this is still a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Those types of winters don't cold all the way through December and January, unless you have a relaxed Pacific Jet (like 2010-11), and we don't have that this year. If it was a +ENSO/+PDO (like 2014-15), I'd be easily predicting a cold and snowy January.

I think January will turn warm, at least be a near normal, or even above average temperature departure.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Problem is this is still a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Those types of winters don't cold all the way through December and January, unless you have a relaxed Pacific Jet (like 2010-11), and we don't have that this year. If it was a +ENSO/+PDO (like 2014-15), I'd be easily predicting a cold and snowy January.

I think January will turn warm, at least be a near normal, or even above average temperature departure.

You said the same thing about December .

January is looking very wintry. 

[EasternLI]

10-15 day range on 00z EPS clusters had big support for strong blocking on the leading scenario. 30 of the members included in that one.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You said the same thing about December .

January is looking very wintry. 

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys.

The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys.

The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

 Webb is worried about suppression. Hopefully this doesnt happen and we all get a nice size storm.

[Krs4Lfe]

We finally have a big storm heading towards the Upper Midwest. That was probably the pattern changer that much of CONUS needed. In the wake, there will be artic air and renewed chances for snow from an active STJ running into cold air. We were definitely in the minority over the past 2 weeks, much of CONUS was torching. Similar to early Jan 2024, looks like we have a big storm over the northern tier to shake up that death ridge over Central US. Without that ridge there, it becomes much easier for most of the country to have more chances for snow. 

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Webb is worried about suppression. Hopefully this doesnt happen and we all get a nice size storm.

You're fine. They always (90%+) drift north. Ask Connecticut posters.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 12/26/2025 at 12:45 AM, GaWx said:

 Based on population weighted heating degree days, a good measure of energy usage, the Conus in Dec won’t be that warm at all! Pop weighted Dec temps are progged to come out to only ~1 F warmer than normal.

 My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN.  Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN.

 Based strictly on geographic area though, my guess is that the Conus will come out to ~3 AN for Dec (~1 BN E 1/2 and ~7 AN W 1/2) or ~37 F.

 If it comes out to 3 AN, that wouldn’t be anywhere near the records of 2023 (~5.5 AN or 40.0), 2021 (~5 AN or ~39.3 F) 2015 (~4.5 AN or ~38.6 F), and 2024 (~4 AN or 38.3 F).

 So, I expect Dec of 2025 on an aerial basis to come out ~3 F colder than 2023, ~2 F colder than 2021, ~1.5 F colder than 2015, and ~1.0 F colder than 2024. Also, 1939 was ~37.7 F.
 

 So, I believe that on an aerial basis that Dec of 2025 will come out no warmer than 6th warmest Dec since 1895. Also, it’s possible that 1957 and even 2014 end up warmer than 2025 if I’m a little too warm with my 37 F guess by, say, a couple of tenths, possibly dropping 2025 down to as low as 8th warmest.

 
 

@TheClimateChanger

I bit the bullet and picked up a subscription for the PRISM estimates. It's estimating 2.76F through Christmas day, but we've been adding 0.5F per day lately. Extrapolating through yesterday, PRISM would probably have us up to ~+3.2F for the month to date.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

I bit the bullet and picked up a subscription for the PRISM estimates. It's estimating 2.76F through Christmas day, but we've been adding 0.5F per day lately. Extrapolating through yesterday, PRISM would probably have us up to ~+3.2F for the month to date.

Either way, a VERY respectable anomaly. From a historical standpoint, this could wind up warmer than any December prior to 2015 if PRISM is close. Not sure what's going on with recent Decembers. 3 of the past 4 were even warmer. So from a historical standpoint, EXTREMELY impressive, but from the vantage point of recent years, pretty ho-hum national anomaly. It doesn't appear to be data error, because the USCRN network suggests recent Decembers were even warmer than given by the nClimDiv numbers.

[TheClimateChanger]

14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Either way, a VERY respectable anomaly. From a historical standpoint, this could wind up warmer than any December prior to 2015 if PRISM is close. Not sure what's going on with recent Decembers. 3 of the past 4 were even warmer. So from a historical standpoint, EXTREMELY impressive, but from the vantage point of recent years, pretty ho-hum national anomaly. It doesn't appear to be data error, because the USCRN network suggests recent Decembers were even warmer than given by the nClimDiv numbers.

Wow, this is interesting how cold the ensuing Januarys were following the warmest Decembers. Some are forecasting a cold January this year as well.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, this is interesting how cold the ensuing Januarys were following the warmest Decembers. Some are forecasting a cold January this year as well.

Februarys were a blowtorch, however. Very curious. Will be interesting to see if a similar theme plays out in 2026.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Either way, a VERY respectable anomaly. From a historical standpoint, this could wind up warmer than any December prior to 2015 if PRISM is close. Not sure what's going on with recent Decembers. 3 of the past 4 were even warmer. So from a historical standpoint, EXTREMELY impressive, but from the vantage point of recent years, pretty ho-hum national anomaly. It doesn't appear to be data error, because the USCRN network suggests recent Decembers were even warmer than given by the nClimDiv numbers.

 I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies were better overall for E US, incl 1/12-18

Today H5:

Yesterday 2m:

Today 2m:

 

[leo2000]

I expect January to be colder than normal and at times  slightly milder than normal and February to be overall colder than normal and March to be slightly colder than normal.

[jaxjagman]

Has NINA actually not peaked,i mean the East is warning and the west gets cooler each day

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys.

The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

I don't think the first half of January will be colder than the second half.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have no idea why anyone would be using the -IOD to forecast at this stage, as it's long-gone.

https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=iod

[GaWx]

  I’ve been quite curious about what phases the MJO would be in during the heart of the widespread historic US warmth of late Dec, Dec 23-27. We needed to wait due to several days of reporting lag. Would any of it be in the typically chilly in the E 1/2 of the US phase 8? 

 Well, now we have the answer for the first 3 days, Dec 23-25: not surprisingly, none of those first 3 days were in phase 8. It turns out that Dec 23-4 were in very weak phase 7 while Dec 25 was in very weak phase 6, which I consider intuitive:

 

2025          12          23 -0.28945175      0.37228486               7  0.47157007      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          24 -0.12800699      0.45807526               7  0.47562456      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind      
        2025          12          25  0.16766728      0.36077648               6  0.39783412      Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind

 

 Based on a combo of the above diagram and a related adjustment to the model prog consensus, I’m predicting that Dec 26th will be in very weak 4 and Dec 27th will be in either weak 3 or weak 2.

 Will we get back into phase 8 before the end of Dec? The GEFS, JMA, and CFS with my adjustments suggest likely not whereas the adjusted Euro suggests there’s a chance for at least one day of weak 8 then.

 Will we get back into phase 8 in early Jan? As of now there’s a moderate chance of mainly a weak 8, but that’s all I can say right now due to model disagreement and it being too far out for a confident prediction.

[Krs4Lfe]

Quite the storm coming into the Midwest. Significant snow for Minneapolis, blizzard conditions from Dakotas through UP Michigan. Even Detroit’s forecast calls for a few inches of snow on Monday and gusts up to 50 mph. Could be blizzard like conditions for that area too. Same with Milwaukee Sunday night and Monday morning. I wouldn’t be surprised if places outside the urban cities are upgraded to blizzard warnings (was already done for the Minneapolis suburbs). Big time lake effect will kick in Tuesday through Thursday as well. Good to see a big storm to change up the stagnant warm pattern across most of CONUS