2025-2026 ENSO

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

NYC has not had a 4" snowfall since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm.

I call baloney on that. Last storm was definitely 4” for most of us and so was 2/13/24, most of city had 4-6”. For what it’s worth, south Queens, Brooklyn; and Staten Island had 6-8” from the 2/17/24 snowstorm but I know that heavy band didn’t reach Central Park. But the other 2 storms reached 4”, they just don’t measure properly 

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies, which are overall fairly similar to yesterday, still have that new +PNA in the means for 1/12-18:

 

 This setup continues more strongly into the subsequent week, 1/19-25, than was seen yesterday:

 

 

Hmm you know what, that pattern shown on that 1/19-25 timeframe of that run caught my eye. It's a pretty interesting one. These are very similar key features displayed, to the key features of the 500mb precursor to PV split pattern. Which would be a leading indicator ~14 days ahead of one should one manifest itself properly. Big trough over East Asia, Big ridge in pacific up through Alaska, Vortex in Hudson Bay and Canada, little bit of SE ridge. Even a subtle hint of the high pressure in the Urals in these height lines. Something else to keep an eye out for if we see that. Lots of interesting things going on this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/24/2025 at 9:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@MJO812Congrats....I was wrong on December snow in NYC, and you were right. Reason being I missed the late month blocking. Let's see if you guys get above my 19-29" seasonal call.

JINX!! Suckah!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/24/2025 at 8:06 PM, raindancewx said:

Here is the warm up no one thought was real - definitely verified as a much warmer period.

I did.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/25/2025 at 4:10 PM, GaWx said:

 The best looking H5 map for cold potential for the E US in Jan on today’s Euro Weeklies is this one with a nice +PNA, which is for 1/12-18 (similar to yesterday):

 

Just 3 days ago it still had an ugly -PNA: so there’s been a big change for an ens mean for a week long period

 

Here’s today’s temp map for the same week (similar to yesterday): chilly but I fully expect this would turn much colder than this if the +PNA idea is right

 

Here’s what the same week’s map had just 3 days ago, which is consistent with that ugly H5 then:

 

There is my +PNA. Looks like the blocking reprieve won't last as long as I thought since the Strat and troposphere are remaining uncoupled, but I did get the strengthening PV right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this event is going to follow a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña, i.e. 2010-11, the eastern cold/snowy pattern usually starts breaking down by late January and February flips above normal. So far, since late November, this event has been totally consistent with front-loaded, canonical Nina’s of the past 

I expect a lot of more Strat help late this year than 2011.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Hmm you know what, that pattern shown on that 1/19-25 timeframe of that run caught my eye. It's a pretty interesting one. These are very similar key features displayed, to the key features of the 500mb precursor to PV split pattern. Which would be a leading indicator ~14 days ahead of one should one manifest itself properly. Big trough over East Asia, Big ridge in pacific up through Alaska, Vortex in Hudson Bay and Canada, little bit of SE ridge. Even a subtle hint of the high pressure in the Urals in these height lines. Something else to keep an eye out for if we see that. Lots of interesting things going on this year.

Book it-

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

I wonder if all the people that ran to Twitter like a kid to post how strong the SPV would be (assuming it meant warmth), will be as eager to post the same data has significantly changed?

WED Update

THURS Update

FRI Update

Still mainly above average for the most part.

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still mainly above average for the most part.

 

Not much, & certainly trending weaker, which has been a repeating trend since NOV. I honestly do think it will make a difference either way, but I am just saying...what people point out & what they ignore is comical. 

[GaWx]

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21.

-NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21.

-NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

Interesting to see if that works out. Pattern does have potential heading forward 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Interesting to see if that works out. Pattern does have potential heading forward 

Problem is this is still a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Those types of winters don't cold all the way through December and January, unless you have a relaxed Pacific Jet (like 2010-11), and we don't have that this year. If it was a +ENSO/+PDO (like 2014-15), I'd be easily predicting a cold and snowy January.

I think January will turn warm, at least be a near normal, or even above average temperature departure.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Problem is this is still a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Those types of winters don't cold all the way through December and January, unless you have a relaxed Pacific Jet (like 2010-11), and we don't have that this year. If it was a +ENSO/+PDO (like 2014-15), I'd be easily predicting a cold and snowy January.

I think January will turn warm, at least be a near normal, or even above average temperature departure.

You said the same thing about December .

January is looking very wintry. 

[EasternLI]

10-15 day range on 00z EPS clusters had big support for strong blocking on the leading scenario. 30 of the members included in that one.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You said the same thing about December .

January is looking very wintry. 

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys.

The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys.

The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

 Webb is worried about suppression. Hopefully this doesnt happen and we all get a nice size storm.