2025-2026 ENSO

[Typhoon Tip]

Whaaaa

cluttering up a thread that’s 244 pages long? how the hell can you tell 

LOL

[raindancewx]

Subsurface decay is way ahead of last year. Doesn't mean we go to El Nino. But the warmth below the western tropical Pacific is advancing east and toward the surface pretty steadily.

[raindancewx]

By the way - this is the -ENSO (La Nina/near La Nina), -PNA, -WPO, -NAO composite for December since 1950. Its very similar to the pattern this month, but less extreme. The pattern this month has the cold/warm areas in the same place, just need to add at least 4-6F to both the cold (colder) and the warmth (warmer).

In the composite, January is still pretty cold. But you do see the cold retrogress hard to the West - in March. February is not coherent - its all over the place. -NAO if it continues becomes a pretty strong cold signal further west later in the winter, particularly Jan 15 and on.

[raindancewx]

Look familiar? This is Dec 1962, 1964, 1975, 2010 warmed up two degrees. Core heat Northwest, not Southwest. Core cold Lakes/Mid Atlatnic, not Northern Plains or New England. I just picked the best temp matches in the -PNA, -WPO, -NAO, -ENSO set.

These are all warmed up by 2F - still supports my idea since Sep/Oct of cold eventually retrogressing to the West.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

This is a look at what the month looks like to date. Had the right idea blending 2013/2024 -

Jan 2025/2014 doesn't look too different from month to date, but there are hints of changes by Alaska. I don't think the overall look of the pattern will collapse for a bit. But positioning of the key feature will migrate slowly in January.

Good work man !

[snowfan789]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Look familiar? This is Dec 1962, 1964, 1975, 2010 warmed up two degrees. Core heat Northwest, not Southwest. Core cold Lakes/Mid Atlatnic, not Northern Plains or New England. I just picked the best temp matches in the -PNA, -WPO, -NAO, -ENSO set.

These are all warmed up by 2F - still supports my idea since Sep/Oct of cold eventually retrogressing to the West.

How do things look rolling forward in terms of precip? Absolutely brutal start to the snow season in much of the West.

[Terpeast]

Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period. We'll see if this holds...

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

I don’t know why the NAO and its influence has been underdone on the models, but these kinds of things make forecasting discussions so interesting. Just think if the models were all knowing. The discussion would be pretty boring.

Probably related to the complexity of modeling long range interactions between the stratosphere and troposphere.

My guess is that this was linked to the record low sea ice Kara and Barents seas.

Very intersting paper below matches the current patterns around the Northern Hemisphere. 

 

 

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc215

LETTER • THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE IS OPEN ACCESS

North American cold events following sudden stratospheric warming in the presence of low Barents-Kara Sea sea ice

 

 

Abstract

While the relationship between the Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude winter climate has been well discussed, especially on the seasonal mean scale, it remains unclear whether the Arctic sea ice condition affects the predictability of North American cold weather on the subseasonal time scale. Here we find that, in the presence of low Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can favor surface cold spells over North America at the subseasonal timescale based on observations and model experiments. A persistent ridge of wave-2 pattern emerges over the Bering Sea-Gulf of Alaska several weeks after the SSW onset, with a coherent structure from the stratosphere to the surface, which, in turn, is conducive to synoptic cold air outbreaks in Canada and midwestern USA. This highlights a planetary wave pathway relating to BKS sea ice changes, by which the stratospheric polar vortex impacts the regional surface temperature on the subseasonal scale. In contrast, this mechanism does not occur with positive BKS sea ice anomaly. These findings help to improve the subseasonal predictability over North America, especially under the background of rapid change of Arctic sea ice in a warming world.

 

[GaWx]

Natural gas is up 4% today, which I assume is due to the model consensus again correcting colder continually due to not seeing E US cold well that’s over one week out.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Natural gas is up 4% today, which I assume is due to the model consensus again correcting colder continually due to not seeing E US cold well that’s over one week out.

Markets moving on today's euro weeklies. Still would like to see them being more consistent to go all-in on the cold east for Jan.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Markets moving on today's euro weeklies. Still would like to see them being more consistent to go all-in on the cold east for Jan.

This is the first time in a while that the 11-15 day ensembles have had this much of a warm bias in the East. 
 

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html