2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Why wouldn't they continue to cool? Through history all sections of the pacific have had warming and cooling trends.

I’m not saying they won’t and it’s very possible we see a full scale shift next year with the Nino. My point is that the cooling you are seeing right now is due to the very persistent and strong convection, which is to be expected with the standing wave there. Although they have cooled, there are still anomalies of +30C, which is why the convection is there in the first place, the atmosphere always places it over the warmest waters due to evaporation and latent/sensible heat release

[GaWx]

 If the more favorable phase 8 progs today vs yesterday are not enough good news for those who prefer it cold in the E US, I’ve got more:

Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS NAO through 12/10: headed to moderate +NAO 

 

Today’s (11/27) GEFS NAO through 12/11: no +NAO as it stops rising at dead neutral (0):

[EasternLI]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yesterday’s (11/26) 2 week GEFS (through 12/10): didn’t make it to phase 8 (extended showed it made it but not til 12/13):

Today’s (11/27) 2 week GEFS through 12/11: already makes it to phase 8 on 12/3, which is TEN days earlier than yesterday. It remains in phase 8 through the end, meaning it would be a 9+ day phase 8, the longest Dec phase 8 since 1989:

 

 

I made some quick markups on the chart from the 6Z GEFS to better illustrate what you're seeing on those charts. This ties in to the post I made a couple of days ago regarding kelvin waves and the mjo signal. The true Phase 8 attempt will be right near mid month. Just out of range still but closing in. Effectiveness remains to be seen of course. Notice on this also how the la nina influence re-emerges in between passing kelvin waves causing the loops on those charts.

[GaWx]

 And here’s even more good trends vs yesterday for cold lovers:

Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS AO through 12/10: rose to solid +AO of +1:

Today’s (11/27) GEFS AO: neutral/near 0: 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 And here’s even more good trends vs yesterday for cold lovers:

Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS AO through 12/10: rose to solid +AO of +1:

Today’s (11/27) GEFS AO: neutral/near 0: 

Models want to add more ridging across the polar domain. This may be the early effects of the recent SSW and if well timed with the next mjo 8 wave, this could set us up nicely for late dec - early jan. Still expecting a mid month relaxation where we warm up for a week or so. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 And here’s even more good trends vs yesterday for cold lovers:

Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS AO through 12/10: rose to solid +AO of +1:

Today’s (11/27) GEFS AO: neutral/near 0: 

I'm not that surprised. The 11/27 0z cycle reflects yesterday's development where the GEFS backed off its development of a pronounced AO+ pattern. It is trying to push an EPO+, but its 500 mb pattern is profoundly different from any of the December WPO-/EPO+/AO-/PNA- clusters. Assuming that the simplest explanation is more likely, the pattern disconnect from its forecast teleconnections suggests that either the teleconnection idea is off or the pattern is off, rather than some novel outcome. The pattern closely resembles the EPS, which does not show an EPO+ pattern. Thus, I suspect that the EPS has a better handle on the overall pattern right now. The northern tier of the U.S. and most of Canada should remain cold toward and probably beyond mid-month if that holds. Unfortunately, the SE could still turn warm despite some shots of colder air. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Models want to add more ridging across the polar domain. This may be the early effects of the recent SSW and if well timed with the next mjo 8 wave, this could set us up nicely for late dec - early jan. Still expecting a mid month relaxation where we warm up for a week or so. 

 I agree 100% about the realistic possibility that the models have been slow to react to a more -AO/-NAO as potential effects of the current SSWE. Why? I have to look no further back than the 2/16/2023 major SSW. Even on the run of the day of the actual strat. reversal the GEFS was still clueless about the impending drop of the NAO late Feb into mid March:

2/16/23 (day of SSWE) GEFS NAO forecast through 3/2/23 was dead neutral (0) through 3/2/23:

 

Actual daily NAOs: look how the GEFS run from the day of the SSWE was way too positive for Feb 26th-Mar 2nd!

2023  2 16  0.918
2023  2 17  1.051
2023  2 18  1.202
2023  2 19  1.122
2023  2 20  0.775
2023  2 21  0.480
2023  2 22  0.330
2023  2 23  0.157
2023  2 24  0.155
2023  2 25  0.047
2023  2 26 -0.301
2023  2 27 -0.742
2023  2 28 -0.748
2023  3  1 -0.956
2023  3  2 -1.006
2023  3  3 -1.093
2023  3  4 -1.161
2023  3  5 -1.109
2023  3  6 -1.132
2023  3  7 -1.187
2023  3  8 -1.091
2023  3  9 -0.614
2023  3 10 -0.356
2023  3 11 -0.293
2023  3 12 -0.254

 The next day and the following days, the GEFS started catching on and had this just 4 days later (2/20/23), which was much closer to what actually happened: this was through Mar 6th:

 Similar trends happened with the AO.

 The moral of this real-life story? Stay tuned for more potential big NAO/AO drops for mid December!

Daily NAO:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

@donsutherland1

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The waters are cooling there in the short term due to persistent strong convection in that area from the standing wave

Yeah, short term is the key phrase as those near to record SSTs extend down well below the surface which were recently enhanced by the record IOD.

 

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark As you and @Bluewave suspected…..
 

this just looks like twitter engagement bait. every MJO forecast has another wave propagating into 8… those plots just don’t go out far enough

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, short term is the key phrase as those near to record SSTs extend down well below the surface which were recently enhanced by the record IOD.

90E being +6c anomalies at -130m may definitely precede an El Nino in the next 1-3 years. A few strong Kelvin waves would probably warm the entire ENSO subsurface pretty good. 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this just looks like twitter engagement bait. every MJO forecast has another wave propagating into 8… those plots just don’t go out far enough

It may be Twitter bait. But that’s not because they don’t go out far enough. Rather, it’s that that this Tweet’s runs are “bias corrected” versions, which have more often than not not been making the correct adjustments based on my following them. Here are the corresponding non-bc versions, which are very bullish for phase 8 within their runs:

11/26 ext GEFS: 8 day long phase 8 mid Dec (12/13-20) with a potential 2nd move into phase 8 a few days after this ends:

 

11/26 ext EPS: extremely bullish 15 day long phase 8 (12/13-27), which would be 2nd longest of all time on record for any month:

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this just looks like twitter engagement bait. every MJO forecast has another wave propagating into 8… those plots just don’t go out far enough

The meteorologist who posted that tweet is actually a huge cold/snow weenie and usually finds any excuse to go cold/snowy. He is actually the furthest thing from a warmista.
 

As far as the MJO going into a clean phase 8 with amplitude, without any destructive interference from the standing wave by the Maritime Continent….I’ll believe it when I see it. We have played this game before with MJO phase 8 (23-24) and we lost badly. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but as of right now, color me skeptical 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

90E being +6c anomalies at -130m may definitely precede an El Nino in the next 1-3 years. A few strong Kelvin waves would probably warm the entire ENSO subsurface pretty good. 

I wonder how strong of an El Nino would be necessary to completely take the record WPAC warm pool out of the equation?

Even during the 2015-2016 record super event, we still got the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Nino in December 2015 leading to the +13 that month around NYC. Thankfully, there was a major improvement during January and February 2016.

But our next El Nino attempts in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 were too weak to fully couple due to that record WPAC warm pool leading to the strong La Nina background patterns.

Then the borderline super event in 2023-2024 had the record forcing and SST warmth from the IO into the WPAC for such a strong El Nino. This lead to the record warmth and 500mb ridging in Canada extending down into the US with no Nino trough development in the East.

[LakePaste25]

10-day ensemble mean for early to mid December looks decent. More favored here in the interior/lakes due to climo, but also can’t rule out one or two a small events and/or front-end for I-95. For you I-95’ers, Boston on N is probably more favored for a moderate event or greater. We will have to see how things evolve. 

 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

10-day ensemble mean for early to mid December looks decent. More favored here in the interior/lakes due to climo, but also can’t rule out one or two a small events and/or front-end for I-95. For you I-95’ers, Boston on N is probably more favored for a moderate event or greater. We will have to see how things evolve.

The 20th heaviest snowfall total through 11-26 at Marquette is very respectable.

Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2014-11-26	55.0	0
2	1989-11-26	49.3	0
3	1991-11-26	46.9	0
4	2000-11-26	46.8	0
5	2002-11-26	46.6	0
6	1997-11-26	44.9	0
7	2008-11-26	43.7	0
8	1988-11-26	43.3	0
9	1992-11-26	41.4	0
10	2018-11-26	40.8	0
11	2022-11-26	40.7	0
12	2005-11-26	39.8	0
13	1979-11-26	39.0	0
14	1993-11-26	38.7	0
15	1975-11-26	36.3	0
16	1976-11-26	31.1	0
17	2020-11-26	31.0	0
18	1995-11-26	29.8	0
19	1981-11-26	29.2	0
20	2025-11-26	28.9	0

[stadiumwave]

 

Ummm

Its strange, it took one model run for several SS media folks to think they had the strat all figured out after one forecast spike:

"Brief SSW, then raging SPV coming." 

3 days of weakening trends & no one but one SS media guy saying anything or correcting. 

SPV is giving everyone the middle finger. 

 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Ummm

Its strange, it took one model run for several SS media folks to think they had the strat all figured out after one forecast spike:

"Brief SSW, then raging SPV coming." 

3 days of weakening trends & no one but one SS media guy saying anything or correcting. 

SPV is giving everyone the middle finger. 

 

This is going to be a really interesting winter. 

[jaxjagman]

More members are jumping in each day around Christmas into early Jan

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Ummm

Its strange, it took one model run for several SS media folks to think they had the strat all figured out after one forecast spike:

"Brief SSW, then raging SPV coming." 

3 days of weakening trends & no one but one SS media guy saying anything or correcting. 

SPV is giving everyone the middle finger. 

 

 I don't care what it says right now....I'm not going to alter my forecast philosophy based on a day 20 forecast product. 

[stadiumwave]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 I don't care what it says right now....I'm not going to alter my forecast philosophy based on a day 20 forecast product. 

 

Was not referring to you. SS media. Yours is a forecast, the ones I am referring to are just warm biased nuts.