2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, leo2000 said:

The data seems to show though that this SSW event is a combined reflective-absorptive sudden stratospheric warming event. The reflection phase allows for the Alaskan Ridge and a positive AO and positive NAO in the near term. 

• Absorbing Phase: Subsequently, the stratosphere switches to an absorbing state, where it absorbs the upward wave energy, leading to a breakdown or weakening of the polar vortex. This absorption phase causes downward propagation of anomalous winds and is typically associated with a negative phase of the AO/NAM, leading to an increased likelihood of cold air outbreaks in mid-latitudes, particularly across North America and Eurasia. 

 

 

Tropospheric Impacts

The distinct phases of a combined event lead to a sequence of different weather impacts on the Earth's surface: 

• Near-term (Reflective Phase): Stronger westerlies and an active storm track across northern Europe may be observed, with temporary ridging in the North Pacific.
• Medium-term (Absorptive Phase): Increased pattern uncertainty emerges as the vortex breaks down, typically leading to the negative AO pattern and potential severe winter cold in mid-latitude regions. 

From Met Jens Bonewitz 

Stratospheric Update: hashtag#Potential Combined Reflective-Absorptive hashtag#SSW Developing!
Following yesterday's discussion (link: https://lnkd.in/egEFCFuq), models continue to indicate persistent hashtag#wave-1 forcing on the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) extending into December—this time driven primarily by an intensifying hashtag#Aleutian Low.


We may be witnessing a combined or consecutive reflective-absorptive hashtag#SSW event. As discussed in the recent hashtag#Hannachi et al. (2025) paper, these complex events occur when upward propagating planetary waves first reflect off the disturbed vortex (creating negative heat fluxes that temporarily strengthen the SPV and accelerate the polar jet), before subsequently being absorbed, leading to vortex breakdown and downward wave activity flux propagation to the troposphere.

Expected hashtag#Tropospheric Response:
Near-term (into early hashtag#December):
hashtag#Pacific: Temporary Alaskan Ridge (AkR) development;
N Atlantic: Positive AO/NAO as reflected waves accelerate the jet stream—stronger westerlies and active storm track across northern EuropMedium-term (mid-late December):
Increasing pattern uncertainty as absorption phase dominates.
Downward coupling from the disturbed SPV likely triggers AO/NAO trend reversal. Enhanced (negative) blocking potential across Atlantic-European sector.

Key hashtag#Uncertainty:
The timing and magnitude of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in consecutive wave forcing events remains highly non-linear. While the ~60-day lag framework provides guidance, the volatile nature of this setup challenges deterministic forecasts beyond 2-3 weeks.

hashtag#Graphics (attached):
Time-height evolution of max.wave-1 height amplitude showing sustained and intense forcing in the upper and into the middle stratosphere (1-10 hPa) from late November through early December; source, incl.latest hashtag#forecast: https://lnkd.in/esD7gEtP. The persistent high-amplitude wave activity (>1500-1900 gpdm in the upper stratosphere) represents the continuous pressure on the polar vortex—key driver for the potential reflective-absorptive hashtag#SSW sequence.

Additional Context: 500 hPa hashtag#GFS forecast (30 Nov) showing the main tropospheric driver: intense hashtag#Aleutian Low. Note the deep low pressure system over the North Pacific providing upward wave forcing into the stratosphere.

Additional diagnostics:
https://lnkd.in/eM2nHteb
https://lnkd.in/eXr7cGtG

I don't care how much crap can be dug up from AI, the strat stuff is pretty useless.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Phase 8 and Phase 1 are cold in negative enso years.

 

The MJO is but one factor that can either constructively, or deconstructivity interfere with baseline forcing.....what you are implying is akin to saying that I jog 3x weekly, so I know I'm very healthy....come to find out, I also smoke 6 packs a week, inhale MacDonalds 3x daily and have casual unprotected sex with one-legged prostitutes on a nightly basis.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It will be interesting to see whether this split forcing, if it happens, is a continuation of the VP standing wave over the MC, or is a second wave propagating eastward from MJO 6>7>8>1. There is agreement that the first (current) wave is going to propagate into 8 and 1 in the coming days (according to both GEFS and EPS hovmoller charts), which makes sense as we're already tracking some wintry threats on the way next week. 

(and when I say wintry threats, I'm not saying it's going to snow imby, just talking generally over a broad area in the E and NE)

I suspect this split forcing is the reason for the volatility that we have been seeing in the models for the first 10 days of December. Models struggle with the placement of features when there are multiple areas of forcing. My only guess that I made earlier for December is that we will have a weaker -PNA and colder Canada than last year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I suspect this split forcing is the reason for the volatility that we have been seeing in the models for the first 10 days of December. Models struggle with the placement of features when there are multiple areas of forcing. My only guess that I made earlier for December is that we will have a weaker -PNA and colder Canada than last year. 

Absolutely this.

[EasternLI]

Really good recent paper here when considering this stratosphere wave reflection event. I feel like this influence is taking control of things for a bit. And models are trying to resolve this influence. As it does fit in with what we're seeing, and what models are doing. Which, if it is, then begs the question. What takes over once the life cycle runs its course? And when? Since the end dates apparently vary (but are typically ~2 weeks) and aren't very well understood. It's interesting. Probably a future case study. 

 

Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/521/2025/

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Where did you pull those graphics from?

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Really good recent paper here when considering this stratosphere wave reflection event. I feel like this influence is taking control of things for a bit. And models are trying to resolve this influence. As it does fit in with what we're seeing, and what models are doing. Which, if it is, then begs the question. What takes over once the life cycle runs its course? And when? Since the end dates apparently vary (but are typically ~2 weeks) and aren't very well understood. It's interesting. Probably a future case study. 

 

Dynamics of stratospheric wave reflection over the North Pacific

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/521/2025/

That is the progression I expect in January.

[snowman19]

That is the progression I expect in January.

You are expecting the flip to happen mid-late January still?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You are expecting the flip to happen mid-late January still?

Yea....I expected a non-reversal warming early in the season, and then another reflection event in mid January, followed up a major SSW complete with reversal in February.

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The MJO is but one factor that can either constructively, or deconstructivity interfere with baseline forcing..

Yeah, this is the reason that we don’t always get a perfect MJO composite match for the RMM charts. Multiple areas of forcing often lead to blended looks between the composites. Sometimes we get more consolidated forcing and it closely resembles a specific phase composite. 

[MJO812]

PV forecast

[GaWx]

On 11/25/2025 at 9:18 AM, FPizz said:

Is the ext available to compare the same outputs?  Maybe instead of doing the loop in phase 7, it does it right on the line between 7/8 then goes back into 8.  Yesterdays did the loop in 7

So, now I can give you the answer

Yesterday’s 2 week GEFS (through 12/9/25) was starting to loop in 7 through the end of the 2 week run: was it going to stay in 7 or was it going to go into 8?

 Here’s the much anticipated answer: it ended up doing just a small, quick loop in 7 but then it went a little ways into 8 on 12/11. But that little ways was enough for the moderate amped 8 to last 8 days (12/11-18), which alone would be enough for the longest Dec phase 8 since Dec of 1989’s 10 days and longest, period, since Feb of 2019’s 9 days. However, it then looped back into 7 a little ways 12/19-26 with it stalled at the end. Now my question is whether or not it would have gone back into 8: we’ll never know that far out on this run

 

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

PV forecast

What are you trying to prove? Nothing has changed, this is still a classic wave reflection event then a recovery and strengthening of the SPV come mid-late December. Even twitter has moved on. We’ve discussed this on here ad nauseum with @40/70 Benchmark and several others. We’re beating a dead horse

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What are you trying to prove? Nothing has changed, this is still a classic wave reflection event then a recovery and strengthening of the SPV come mid-late December. Even twitter has moved on. We’ve discussed this on here ad nauseum with @40/70 Benchmark and several others. We’re beating a dead horse

Looks like a graphic pirated from that bafoon, Mark Margavage, who is trying to claim there will be a major SSW with a reversal around xmas. I can assure you, there will not.

[GaWx]

 Today’s MJO through 12/10: tune in tomorrow to see what they’ll do 12/11-27:

 

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What are you trying to prove? Nothing has changed, this is still a classic wave reflection event then a recovery and strengthening of the SPV come mid-late December. Even twitter has moved on. We’ve discussed this on here ad nauseum with @40/70 Benchmark and several others. We’re beating a dead horse

 

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like a graphic pirated from that bafoon, Mark Margavage, who is trying to claim there will be a major SSW with a reversal around xmas. I can assure you, there will not.

Im saying that the PV will not become strong.  I expect cold most of this month with active conditions.   Beating a dead horse ? Snowman, you have been wrong so far about this upcoming pattern along with others. I wouldn't be puffing your chest out if I was you. 

Why are you ignoring the MJO projection . 

PV will take another hit soon.

[FPizz]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What are you trying to prove? Nothing has changed, this is still a classic wave reflection event then a recovery and strengthening of the SPV come mid-late December. Even twitter has moved on. We’ve discussed this on here ad nauseum with @40/70 Benchmark and several others. We’re beating a dead horse

The date that the chart shows a 2nd slight weakening is mid-month, so he was showing the mid month calls might be wrong (like half the posts here since Oct 1).  It doesnt take a genius to say that the PV will eventually strengthen.  A 2 year old can make that same statement, it isn't a bold call.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Im saying that the PV will not become strong.  I expect cold most of this month with active conditions.   Beating a dead horse ? Snowman, you have been wrong so far about this upcoming pattern along with others. I wouldn't be puffing your chest out if I was you. 

Why are you ignoring the MJO projection . 

PV will take another hit soon.

I didn't say "strong" by Xmas, I said approaching climo....then strong into January. That map indicates another slight weakening just prior to Xmas...nothing major.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

The date that the chart shows a 2nd slight weakening is mid-month, so he was showing the mid month calls might be wrong (like half the posts here since Oct 1).  It doesnt take a genius to say that the PV will eventually strengthen.  A 2 year old can make that same statement, it isn't a bold call.

The implication is that it will strengthen relatively rapidly if we are to have a reflection event in January, as I believe that we will. I told everyone that this first one would not result in a reversal weeks ago, when social media was whipped into a PV orgy.

[schoeppeya]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What are you trying to prove? Nothing has changed, this is still a classic wave reflection event then a recovery and strengthening of the SPV come mid-late December. Even twitter has moved on. We’ve discussed this on here ad nauseum with @40/70 Benchmark and several others. We’re beating a dead horse

Acting like a forecast for 2+ weeks into the future is a foregone conclusion is insane. Think its fair to post a forecast that might show things trending differently than they are being shown now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Acting like a forecast for 2+ weeks into the future is a foregone conclusion is insane. Think its fair to post a forecast that might show things trending differently than they are being shown now. 

Sure, it can be argued that perhaps that PV will recover more slowly than some are implying, but I think interpreting that subtle weakening around Xmas as a major disruption is what is insane...especially on the heels of this current head-fake. December reversals are exceedingly rare, which is why reflection events are so common place in January and February.

[schoeppeya]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, it can be argued that perhaps that PV will recover more slowly than some are implying, but I think interpreting that subtle weakening around Xmas as a major disruption is what is insane...especially on the heels of this current head-fake. December reversals are exceedingly rare, which is why reflection events are so common place in January and February.

I must have missed where somebody did that?

[snowman19]

Sure, it can be argued that perhaps that PV will recover more slowly than some are implying, but I think interpreting that subtle weakening around Xmas as a major disruption is what is insane...especially on the heels of this current head-fake. December reversals are exceedingly rare, which is why reflection events are so common place in January and February.

I hate even typing or mentioning his name because I feel like my IQ drops just doing it, but I literally have no words for the absolutely asinine wishcast from Mark Margavage that there is going to be a major SSWE and a total wind reversal by Christmas. Not grounded in any semblance of reality. It’s not even worth discussing that idiocy from a man who failed out of meteorology school and does stolen valor/blatant lying, claiming to be a degreed professional met who’s a “winter weather expert”. It’s a total disgrace and the type of complete garbage I’d expect from a bozo like him

[michsnowfreak]

Blizzard ongoing in the western U.P. of MI. Between a synoptic dump and lake effect The western UP will easily see 2-3+ feet of snow. Jealous is an understatement. Snow squalls will hit the entire state of MI, with accumulations ranging from a dusting to 18" depending on location. Winds gusting 45-55mph. Lake snow warnings also up in upstate NY. The gales of November are roaring and winter has arrived. Coming to New England shortly.

[JakkelWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I hate even typing or mentioning his name because I feel like my IQ drops just doing it, but I literally have no words for the absolutely asinine wishcast from Mark Margavage that there is going to be a major SSWE and a total wind reversal by Christmas. Not grounded in any semblance of reality. It’s not even worth discussing that idiocy from a man who failed out of meteorology school and does stolen valor/blatant lying, claiming to be a degreed professional met who’s a “winter weather expert”. It’s a total disgrace and the type of complete garbage I’d expect from a bozo like him

You are right considering Mark Margavage's degree curriculum only includes up to calculus 1 and just synoptic meteorology, a far cry from the standard education requirements one must achieve to call themselves a meteorologist:

https://catalog.wilkes.edu//preview_program.php?catoid=13&poid=1760

https://wilkes.meritpages.com/stories/Wilkes-University-Awards-Degree-to-Mark-Margavage-of-Edwardsville-Pa-18704-/7693061

a standard meteorology path should include up to partial differential equations and a whole slew of thermodynamics and dynamics classes. 99% sure he never took any of those classes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

I must have missed where somebody did that?

Yes, you did. The person that MJO took that graphic from on Twitter is.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like a graphic pirated from that bafoon, Mark Margavage, who is trying to claim there will be a major SSW with a reversal around xmas. I can assure you, there will not.

Did the SSW forecasted for the end of this month ever happen? Lol

[kazimirkai]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't care how much crap can be dug up from AI, the strat stuff is pretty useless.

AIFS scorecard over operational (blue=improvement). Ryan Torn suggested that systematic under performance at 50mb was because the NWP models it's train on aren't actually very good at simulating the physics of the stratosphere, so it's learning incorrect conclusions and then applying them in full force.