2025-2026 ENSO

[leo2000]

Brutally cold and snowy winter on the way. I know Don was mentioning about the cold pool is much smaller than in 1968 but this is not arctic air coming it is Siberian cold and with the pdo rising that would increase snowstorm chances. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There have been some subtle shifts in the guidance. The combination of subtle shifts and long timeframes can lead to big changes. But the timeframe involved is speculative and skill scores at that timeframe are essentially non-existent. 

What remains extremely likely is that a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) is imminent. Zonal winds will slacken dramatically during the next 5-7 days. A full reversal can't be ruled out.

There is typically a lag of 10-30 days for the impact of an SSWE to propagate to the troposphere. So, even as a cold shot appears increasingly likely from the Great Lakes Region to the Northeast to close November, that cold shot will almost certainly not be the result of the imminent SSWE. What happens with the polar vortex (split and location of the pieces) will be crucial. 

For now, things still appear on a path toward an EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern development. Initially the most significant cold appears likely to dump into the Plains States before pushing eastward. The Great Lakes Region still seems primed for a possible multi-week period of below normal temperatures coupled with above normal precipitation. That should lead to an increase in snowfall totals in such cities as Chicago, Detroit, Windsor, and Toronto. 

Pieces of the cold should begin to bleed into the East, but perhaps after the first 7-10 days of December.

If things evolve along this baseline scenario, the December 10-25 period might see the coldest anomalies relative to normal for such cities as Chicago, New York, Philadelphia. The Southeast could see some intrusions of cold, but the PNA- could promote an unwelcome and persistent tendency for SE ridging. Newer guidance suggests an increased probability of a negative NAO, so that could flatten the SE ridge at times. This is my baseline thinking.

IMO, the Week 3-4 CPC Outlooks capture the temperature idea of kind of pattern I expect to prevail during the first half of December. 

Despite social media chatter 1983-style Arctic outbreaks, a lot would need to change for such an outbreak to become likely. Currently, the Northern Hemisphere's cold pool is much smaller than it was at this time in 1983:

2025:

1983:

 

In the very long range, some of the subtle shifts in the teleconnections e.g., dissipation of the WPO-, could translate into the trough's migrating back to the West and a Southeast Ridge reviving in the closing week of December. That's not shown on the weekly ECMWF guidance. But the December 22-29 period's 500 mb forecasts should be monitored for hints of change. It should be noted that neither the MJO nor teleconnections can be forecast with skill at such a forecast horizon.

In sum, wintry opportunities should increase in December, first in Plains States and Great Lakes and then farther East. The Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley look primed for above normal snowfall during December. The Southeast could have the most difficult time seeing the cold try to gain traction, but some cold shots should eventually break through. The closing week of December looks uncertain. Much depends on how the SSWE's impacts will evolve and other variables that cannot be forecast with skill at that range.  Typical SSWE lags would argue that the breakdown in the pattern might occur later. Then there's always the wild card of additional warming events.

Thanks, Don. One thing helping 2025 vs 1983 is that 1983 didn’t have a weak SPV as it didn’t get <25 m/s through Nov and Dec:

 

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s GEFS gets to phase 7 a day earlier than yesterday’s (11/28 vs 11/29) and three days earlier than the run from 2 days ago.

 The 11/19/25 Euro-ext gets it to phase 8 ten days earlier (12/5) than the prior run (12/15):

Prior run (11/18/25):

 

Nearly a guidance is going more amped through 7 & then moving into 8 now. Canadian output is the lone exception 

[das]

On 11/19/2025 at 11:40 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The idea of an imminent SSW/MSW event is a high-confidence one. However, there is often a tendency to treat forecast developments (“SSW → PV split → EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- → brutal NE weather”) as if it were an inevitable, linear, cause-and-effect chain. If such logic were reliable, forecasting accuracy at multi-week stages would be high. That isn't the case.

I personally believe that there will be an increase in wintry effects, especially from near mid-December into at least late December based on typical 1-3 week lags and the currently forecast teleconnection evolution.  That's my baseline thinking at present.

However, that thinking isn't cast in stone. Reality is messier. For example, not every SSW leads to a prolonged deep AO-. Not every AO- period results in severe cold and/or excessive snowfall. 

From this far out, model skill is poor to non-existent on critical synoptic factors e.g., future storm tracks, the emergence of North Pacific jet streaks, exact ridge-trough placement, etc. A bad pattern coupled with a well-timed phase can produce a big snowstorm; a great pattern but badly-timed phases or absence of shortwaves can result in a lack of snowfall. Seemingly favorable ensemble means can also disguise large differences among ensemble members.  Clusters can provide insight into some scenarios.

For now, potential is on the table. But nothing is locked in, just yet, in terms of specific details.

Great post @donsutherland1.  I, for one, am looking forward to shoveling inches and inches of pattern.  

Back to lurking for me...

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Nearly a guidance is going more amped through 7 & then moving into 8 now. Canadian output is the lone exception 

The RMM charts are only providing part of the picture. They are following the convection to the east of the Dateline. But we still have convection lingering near the Maritime Continent into early December. So it’s more of a split forcing pattern rather than a canonical MJO driven pattern. 

 

[stadiumwave]

On 11/19/2025 at 8:32 AM, anthonymm said:

-PNA is the default in niñas. I think we all agree here this winter will be predominantly a -PNA one.

Again, yea. Maybe you did not read my post closely. Last year was a La Nina. There was a deep -PDO. I predicted a -PNA dominated winter & a very warm, low snow east & several did. 

Despite that, the winter defied the odds & was dominated by +PNA. All I am saying is that its weather....not always just simple. So a little humility is needed. 

[stadiumwave]

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Again, yea. Maybe you did not read my post closely. Last year was a La Nina. There was a deep -PDO. I predicted a -PNA dominated winter & a very warm, low snow east & several did. 

Despite that, the winter defied the odds & was dominated by +PNA. All I am saying is that its weather....not always just simple. So a little humility is needed. 

 

For that reason, the climatology factor built into models is a factor in the low accuracy for now even in the medium range. GFS for 11/28 from the 14th model runs to today. Clearly, it is the expected to the observation:

[stadiumwave]

Even the European model as well. Today 0z verses the 17th 0z. 

 

Am I saying we will not have massive SER problems? Nope but I am not saying we definitely will either. 

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The RMM charts are only providing part of the picture. They are following the convection to the east of the Dateline. But we still have convection lingering near the Maritime Continent into early December. So it’s more of a split forcing pattern rather than a canonical MJO driven pattern. 

 

I don't know. That doesn't look very significant. Where is the said difference? This is that same eps run as posted and these look basically like a carbon copy, to me. 

[FPizz]

30 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Even the European model as well. Today 0z verses the 17th 0z. 

 

Am I saying we will not have massive SER problems? Nope but I am not saying we definitely will either. 

Wow, pretty much nothing jives up at all, haha. Wild

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I don't know. That doesn't look very significant. Where is the said difference? This is that same eps run as posted and these look basically like a carbon copy, to me. 

That is just a one day snapshot from a 360 hr run. A few days before that it has a different look. Convection lingering near the Maritime Continent will tend to stall the movement toward a more classic phase 8 which was mentioned in the post that I was replying to. 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That is just a one day snapshot from a 360 hr run. A few days before that it had a different look. Convection lingering near the Maritime Continent will tend to stall the movement toward a more classic phase 8 which was mentioned in the post that I was replying to. 

Well, yeah. It would take a little time to imprint on the circulation. Perhaps it's only one run but it was the same one. I would have expected to see some differences on the model if there were interference with the signal.

 

Totally agree with you regarding phase 8. We'll definitely want to see the suppressed phase center itself over 120E to achieve the proper effectiveness IMO. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Well, yeah. It would take a little time to imprint on the circulation. Perhaps it's only one run but it was the same one. I would have expected to see some differences on the model if there were interference with the signal.

 

Totally agree with you regarding phase 8. We'll definitely want to see the suppressed phase center itself over 120E to achieve the proper effectiveness IMO. 

There could be some MJO 7 elements in the mix for early December. But the convection lingering near the Maritime Continent may not translate into a purely 7 composite. So with more of a split forcing pattern perhaps a variation on the phase 7 theme.

I agree that the phase 8s have been a big challenge since January 2022. Even when the RMM charts indicated a phase 8 verifying, lingering phase 4-6 convection didn’t lead to the desired outcome.

The record SST warmth near the Maritime Continent had been altering the convective forcing and sensible weather patterns.

[brooklynwx99]

this is a pretty obvious P8 signal. there is very little, if any forcing showing up on the EPS over the Maritime Continent

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a pretty obvious P8 signal. there is very little, if any forcing showing up on the EPS over the Maritime Continent

The EPS  tends to dampen the convection near the Maritime Continent beyond day 10 too much. For some reason the GEFS tends to do better. That region near 150E will probably have more forcing showing up in future EPS runs as we get closer to early December.

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS  tends to dampen the convection near the Maritime Continent beyond day 10 too much. For some reason the GEFS tends to do better. That region near 150E will probably have more forcing showing up in future runs as we get closer to early December.

I forget which winter it was recently…maybe 23-24? The EPS was awful all winter long with the MJO, November right through March. It kept showing amplified waves propagating right through phases 8-1-2 in the long range over and over again and it never happened once

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There could be some MJO 7 elements in the mix for early December. But the convection lingering near the Maritime Continent may not translate into a purely 7 composite. So with more of a split forcing pattern perhaps a variation on the phase 7 theme.

I agree that the phase 8s have been a big challenge since January 2022. Even when the RMM charts indicated a phase 8 verifying, lingering phase 4-6 convection didn’t lead to the desired outcome.

The record SST warmth near the Maritime Continent had been altering the convective forcing and sensible weather patterns.

Its definitely  phase 7. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its definitely  phase 7. 

The 5 day forecast mean has a deeper trough in the West and stronger Southeast Ridge than the typical phase 7. That’s why I used the term elements or similarities. Still no change in the dominant storm track through the Great Lakes into early December. 

[leo2000]

The weeklies have gotten even colder and stormier.