2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

@Bluewave

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey Don,

 I’m still confused about 1951-2 and 1952-3.

1. 1951-2 had cooling rather than warming from Nov through Feb (coming out of El Niño) with none of the monthlies near that -0.5 threshold:

Nov 1951: +1.19

Dec 1951: +0.74

Jan 1952: +0.49

Feb 1952: +0.37

 

2. 1952-3 had sharp warming in Jan but these were nowhere near the -0.5 threshold that you were going by:

Nov 1952: -0.14

Dec 1952: +0.03

Jan 1953: +0.56

Feb 1953: +0.61

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

GaWx,

Thanks. It looks like I messed up my pre-1980 values on the spreadsheet. By any chance, do you have a link to the monthly Region 1+2 anomalies. I can't find it on the moved ENSO page.

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

GaWx,

Thanks. It looks like I messed up my pre-1980 values on the spreadsheet. By any chance, do you have a link to the monthly Region 1+2 anomalies. I can't find it on the moved ENSO page.

Hey Don,

 Thanks for clarifying.
 The 1+2 anomalies are found at this ERSST monthlies link that has the four Nino anomalies (warning: these are all based on 1991-2020 anomalies rather than being based on moving base periods):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

 

[GaWx]

Here’s my current NWS forecast low for Nov 11th:

MONDAY NIGHT  
CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30.

- If this verifies, it would be the earliest freeze at KSAV since the 11/7 32 low of 2010
-If it gets down to the predicted 30, that would be the coldest so early in the season since way back in 1976!

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't remember it linking up to the SE ridge last year like it did the previous 2 winters. I do remember the board commenting that we were happy to see it disconnected.

The fact that it did not link up helped the Middle Atlantic score a good snowfall winter. Storm track was too far south for us. 

The Greenland block linked up with the Southeast ridge at storm time last winter when it counted. This chart below shows the 11 days last winter when the heaviest precipitation of .20  or more fell from Philly to Boston. While last winter was colder than recent winters, the cold only arrived behind the major Great Lakes cutters which produced most of the precipitation. 

The 11 day winter 2024-2025 composite when most of the precipitation fell

 

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The problem was that as soon as a ridge would try to get established in the West, the Pacific jet would just knock it down or shove it east which meant storms couldn’t turn the corner in a good place for us and they’d be forced out to sea. We also couldn’t get a well timed phase with so much chaos and shortwaves everywhere. That’s why I’m so pessimistic about our chances especially north of DC to south of Boston with this pattern continuing. I-90 to maybe I-84 can still get good events from SWFE, very rarely down here when everything aligns. The suppressed patterns can help the DC/Baltimore area and south. East of I-81 and north of the M/D line to around the I-84 corridor, we need those benchmark tracks to have a shot at normal snow. We’re in a unique shaft zone here with this new regime. 

I've said this a few times. The northern mid atlantic from philly to the nyc metro is the screw zone now. Too north for the suppressed tracks, too south for the swfe. We have only one way of getting snow basically (KU nor'easters), and that's the reason we've been consistently getting the lowest percent of our snow normals the last few years compared to the other I95 cities. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I was going to say it’s been a long time since we’ve seen this much cooling in the NE PAC and it’s still ongoing

 

Cooling around Japan continuing a slow and steady rising of the PDO too.

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I've said this a few times. The northern mid atlantic from philly to the nyc metro is the screw zone now. Too north for the suppressed tracks, too south for the swfe. We have only one way of getting snow basically (KU nor'easters), and that's the reason we've been consistently getting the lowest percent of our snow normals the last few years compared to the other I95 cities. 

We used to get clippers once in a while but they have largely gone extinct, and 20-30 years ago we used to get hugger tracks that would at least produce on the front end, like the Feb 1995 and March 1993 storms. We really need the offshore benchmark tracks here to have good snow winters now unless these come back. 

[anthonymm]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We used to get clippers once in a while but they have largely gone extinct, and 20-30 years ago we used to get hugger tracks that would at least produce on the front end, like the Feb 1995 and March 1993 storms. We really need the offshore benchmark tracks here to have good snow winters now unless these come back. 

Yup I really dont see how the math works out to getting even close to our normals (25-30" give or take from philly to nyc) unless we get several big coastal lows tracking along the benchmark. Seems really hard to pull off. Who knows maybe bluewave is right and our new normals are around 15" per season.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yup I really dont see how the math works out to getting even close to our normals (25-30" give or take from philly to nyc) unless we get several big coastal lows tracking along the benchmark. Seems really hard to pull off. Who knows maybe bluewave is right and our new normals are around 15" per season.

No one can predict the winter right now in November. December looks good  right now.  We can easily get above normal snowfall with 1 big coastal or 2.

[snowman19]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cooling around Japan continuing a slow and steady rising of the PDO too.

Not earth shattering. I don’t think anyone here expected a severely negative PDO going into winter. Everyone I’ve seen has been expecting a rise from the severely negative levels. The only unrealistic expectations I’ve seen have been on Twitter….we had some twitterologists back in the spring expecting that we would be in an El Niño/+PDO with a “grand solar minimum” right now….

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yup I really dont see how the math works out to getting even close to our normals (25-30" give or take from philly to nyc) unless we get several big coastal lows tracking along the benchmark. Seems really hard to pull off. Who knows maybe bluewave is right and our new normals are around 15" per season.

What I said is that our new normals since 2018-2019 have been in that lower range around 15”. We are going to need a shift back to benchmark storm tracks at least occasionally for totals getting back above 20” some winters.

If we don’t see significant shifts to this pattern over the next 5-10 years, then it will signal that the new average will settle under 20” instead of the mid 20s which has been the very long term average.  

I came out with 3 potential scenarios a while back. 

1) Snowfall continues at these lower levels and only during an occasional season like we had back in 2021 does it get back above average. 

2) Snowfall experiences a temporary bounce in the remainder off the 2020s with more benchmark storm tracks than we have had in the last 7 winters. But it could only be a temporary bounce as warming continues. Steeper declines resume during the 2030s.

3) Largest volcanic eruption in hundreds of years cools the planet for 3-7 years with the potential for well above average snowfall. Very low skill forecast since volcanism on this scale is very challenging to forecast ahead of time.

[anthonymm]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No one can predict the winter right now in November. December looks good  right now.  We can easily get above normal snowfall with 1 big coastal or 2.

We cant really get above normal with one. That would take a january 2016 type event which happens like once every 20 years.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

We cant really get above normal with one. That would take a january 2016 type event which happens like once every 20 years.

I would agree. @40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a few times that the indicators are not screaming KU’s barreling up the coast and dumping on the I-95 corridor. Especially with a very muted STJ (Niña/-PMM)

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I would agree. @40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a few times that the indicators are not screaming KU’s barreling up the coast and dumping on the I-95 corridor. Especially with a very muted STJ (Niña/-PMM)

But not impossible 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But not impossible 

Impossible-no, but would anyone reputable (not someone putting out clickbait for subscriptions) sensibly predict them with the overall pattern we have now? I would think no. 

[FPizz]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Impossible-no, but would anyone reputable (not someone putting out clickbait for subscriptions) sensibly predict them with the overall pattern we have now? I would think no. 

Can you explain how from 1987-2002, 15 winters, 10 of them were well below normal (8 with less than 18" with the 2 others below 5") and how that is any different than the past 9 winters in terms of winter storm tracks then vs now?  It took the jim dandy of a winter in 95/96 and 93/94 to pretty much save that entire stretch, otherwise the snow average for those 15 years would have been below 19".  That was my area, but I'm in the tri-state so many experienced the same thing. It is funny how that stretch resembles the "new norm" of the current stretch we are on with snowfall totals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

Would you be able to say that for the Mid-Atlantic, or is this only valid for New England?

I think it will be tough for VA.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I would agree. @40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a few times that the indicators are not screaming KU’s barreling up the coast and dumping on the I-95 corridor. Especially with a very muted STJ (Niña/-PMM)

 

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But not impossible 

It's definitely not zero....but I don't view this as a season that screams "KU".

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Can you explain how from 1987-2002, 15 winters, 10 of them were well below normal (8 with less than 18" with the 2 others below 5") and how that is any different than the past 9 winters in terms of winter storm tracks then vs now?  It took the jim dandy of a winter in 95/96 and 93/94 to pretty much save that entire stretch, otherwise the snow average for those 15 years would have been below 19".  That was my area, but I'm in the tri-state so many experienced the same thing. It is funny how that stretch resembles the "new norm" of the current stretch we are on with snowfall totals.

From 2000-18 generally (had our share of crap winters in that stretch too but generally good to great) we had an overall pattern to support more benchmark storm tracks and therefore above normal snow seasons for the NYC metro. NYC is also far enough NE to catch some of the late bloomer Miller Bs that nail Boston/New England. The Pacific was in better shape with periods of +PDO and drove a more favorable pattern. Bluewave pointed it out many times and showed data to back up the assertion that in 2019 that background changed and we essentially entered a never ending Nina-like state in the mid latitudes with a very warm W Pacific which drives a hostile Pacific jet. Back in the 80s/early 90s we also had hostile patterns but back then we could also count on clippers once in a while or decent front end events so at least we weren’t shut out other than outright atrocious winters like 72-73. I’m not sold on this regime being permanent but there’s no doubt in my mind that other than a rabbit out of the hat rare 20-21 type winter (and even that was modestly above average for NYC itself, the best that winter was in N NJ), the Pacific regime needs to change to get this area back in the game for above average snow winters. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

From 2000-18 generally (had our share of crap winters in that stretch too but generally good to great) we had an overall pattern to support more benchmark storm tracks and therefore above normal snow seasons for the NYC metro. NYC is also far enough NE to catch some of the late bloomer Miller Bs that nail Boston/New England. The Pacific was in better shape with periods of +PDO and drove a more favorable pattern. Bluewave pointed it out many times and showed data to back up the assertion that in 2019 that background changed and we essentially entered a never ending Nina-like state in the mid latitudes with a very warm W Pacific which drives a hostile Pacific jet. Back in the 80s/early 90s we also had hostile patterns but back then we could also count on clippers once in a while or decent front end events so at least we weren’t shut out other than outright atrocious winters like 72-73. I’m not sold on this regime being permanent but there’s no doubt in my mind that other than a rabbit out of the hat rare 20-21 type winter (and even that was modestly above average for NYC itself, the best that winter was in N NJ), the Pacific regime needs to change to get this area back in the game for above average snow winters. 

I'm confident that isn't permanent. SE Canada is going to get colder, as we saw last year and are likely about to again. That helps the NE more than the mid atl, but it is what it is.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Can you explain how from 1987-2002, 15 winters, 10 of them were well below normal (8 with less than 18" with the 2 others below 5") and how that is any different than the past 9 winters in terms of winter storm tracks then vs now?

That was a much snowier era due to the numerous benchmark storm tracks in the mix. NYC Metro needs the benchmark track to reach normal snowfall these days.

When it was much colder prior to the 1990s, we could count on some seasons reaching average without a big benchmark KU event. Since we had clippers which went to our south without getting suppressed and huggers which had enough cold for a good front end snow before changeover.

Your area is positioned better than NYC during changeovers since interior NJ is colder both at the surface and aloft. So you can gain more snow out of a marginal storm track.

NYC 1987-2002 average…21.8”……1987-2002….14.9”

 

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm confident that isn't permanent. SE Canada is going to get colder, as we saw last year and are likely about to again. That helps the NE more than the mid atl, but it is what it is.

Gradient/SWFE patterns are a dream for your area and when things are right be okay here but definitely not what I’d prefer. South of Philly gets shut out in that type of pattern. Like I said-we can’t do anything about the laws of physics or reality. Without benchmark nor’easters that’s pretty much what MBY is stuck with when we can’t get 3-5” type clippers the way we used to. Selfishly I hope the NNE drought continues. 

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Impossible-no, but would anyone reputable (not someone putting out clickbait for subscriptions) sensibly predict them with the overall pattern we have now? I would think no. 

Every pattern is different . You can think otherwise  .