2025-2026 ENSO

[kazimirkai]

Do any of you who may be more professionally informed on meteorology know good ways to find private sector work in the industry or seasonal forecasting work? I'm in grad school right now looking around and it's tough to find some of the less advertised employment. What are your experiences?

[snowman19]

This feature appeared at the very beginning of September and has basically been semi-permanent since. The models continue it right through mid-November and beyond. Should this continue into the tail end of this month, I think that would be rather significant. @donsutherland1 @bluewave

 

EDIT: @mitchnick Wrong. He’s also a meteorologist. Guess you didn’t bother to read that part in his Twitter profile
 

 

 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

On 11/2/2025 at 10:00 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I post images on my blog and then copy and paste as a work around to this forum's limitations.

Like what happened? I used to could post anything here.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Like what happened? I used to could post anything here.

Maybe you hit your limit on attachments. If so, you’ll need to go your attachments through your account and delete some of the already existing ones.

[Newman]

53 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Do any of you who may be more professionally informed on meteorology know good ways to find private sector work in the industry or seasonal forecasting work? I'm in grad school right now looking around and it's tough to find some of the less advertised employment. What are your experiences?

https://nowcastjobs.com/

Filter by any of the industries listed, this site is made specific for the atmospheric sciences/meteorology

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Like what happened? I used to could post anything here.

 

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Maybe you hit your limit on attachments. If so, you’ll need to go your attachments through your account and delete some of the already existing ones.

Yes, I have been here so long that I am running out of images that I care to delete, so I have reorted to copy-pasting from the blog.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This feature appeared at the very beginning of September and has basically been semi-permanent since. The models continue it right through mid-November and beyond. Should this continue into the tail end of this month, I think that would be rather significant. @donsutherland1 @bluewave
 

 

 

 

 

+WPO.

[brooklynwx99]

kind of a wild trend. hopefully we see more of this in the coming months... it's getting far enough into autumn that it holds a bit of weight. we saw the same -NAO trends last winter

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This feature appeared at the very beginning of September and has basically been semi-permanent since. The models continue it right through mid-November and beyond. Should this continue into the tail end of this month, I think that would be rather significant. @donsutherland1 @bluewave
 

 

 

 

 

You do realize that Dr. Sacoransky is an intern radiologist and not a met? Not that one needs to be a met to post about weather as we all know, but you post him often as gospel it seems. 

[roardog]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

+WPO.

Is a +WPO common during a Nina Autumn? Without looking into it, I feel like we usually see low heights out there during a Nina Autumn which helps with the common mild October we so often experience in a Nina.

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You do realize that Dr. Sacoransky is an intern radiologist and not a met? Not that one needs to be a met to post about weather as we all know, but you post him often as gospel it seems. 

His LinkedIn is pretty easy to see that he has no schooling for Meteorology but happened to have 1 job for 18 months working as one.  

[GaWx]

Barney’s coming to town early next week:

 

Hello, boys and girls! That’s me coming to an E US location near you!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 What was your final NAO number?

I haven't been talking about it as much because it's been near neutral.. the May-Sept total N. Atlantic SST indicator for Winter (DJFM) NAO came in at +0.08. It has a normal standard deviation of 0.54, so that makes it 50% likely to have a Winter NAO -0.46 to +0.64. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This feature appeared at the very beginning of September and has basically been semi-permanent since. The models continue it right through mid-November and beyond. Should this continue into the tail end of this month, I think that would be rather significant. @donsutherland1 @bluewave

 

EDIT: @mitchnick Wrong. He’s also a meteorologist. Guess you didn’t bother to read that part in his Twitter profile
 

 

 

 

 

That big +WPO vortex is similar to October 2021 and 2022. It creates a steep gradient between the cold in Siberia and the record WPAC warm pool. So we get a very fast Pacific Jet as a result with frequent lows cutting through the Great Lakes.

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

Follow

A nice 200+ mph (333+ kmh) tail wind as we head over the central north Pacific Ocean this morning.

 

 

October 23, 2025 at 5:37 AM

[PhiEaglesfan712]

ASO 2025 RONI: -0.78

[brooklynwx99]

wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter

That's a time that correlates with -NAO from around Christmas to the 1st week of January

[leo2000]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The Northeast Pacific continues to cool, the “blob” area has cooled over -1.25C since September 1st. While these SSTs are not driving the pattern, it’s indicative of a longwave pattern that favors cooling in that area. If we get to 11/30 with no sign of this trend completely reversing, it’s going to become very difficult for people to continuing using years that saw SST patterns with a “warm blob”. To clarify, I’m only speaking of the people who are using SST analogs with warm blobs, not other factors (QBO, solar, PDO, AMO, etc.) to justify certain analogs
 

Yeah but that is an historical marine heatwave in the north Pacific. Sure yes doesn't look like it will bring a prolonged +TNH but with the forecast being neutral enso for the second part of winter it's a toss up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

ASO 2025 RONI: -0.78

Still neck-and-neck with 2024....see no reason it will deviate much.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That big +WPO vortex is similar to October 2021 and 2022. It creates a steep gradient between the cold in Siberia and the record WPAC warm pool. So we get a very fast Pacific Jet as a result with frequent lows cutting through the Great Lakes.

 

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

Follow

A nice 200+ mph (333+ kmh) tail wind as we head over the central north Pacific Ocean this morning.

 

 

October 23, 2025 at 5:37 AM

2021-2022 was actually our one repreieve from the seasonal +WPO.

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter

Euro weeklies look nice for December 

Negative NAO popping up

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow, the ECMWF is super aggressive with the weakening of the SPV early on. can't remember the last time i've seen a SPV potentially this weak to start a winter

Another similarity to the fall of 2021 and 2022 like we are also seeing with the strong +WPO in October.

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2021_MERRA2_NH.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another similarity to the fall of 2021 and 2022 like we are also seeing with the strong +WPO in October.

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2021_MERRA2_NH.html

October MJO came in stronger than 2022, but weaker than 2021.

[stadiumwave]

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

October MJO came in stronger than 2022, but weaker than 2021.

Weaker MJO 5 peak this October similar to the non PNA mismatch years like 2022, 2021, and 2016. I was expecting this since we haven’t had two back to back La Niña PNA mismatch winters before. So a milder signal for temperatures than last winter. Could still be some +PNA intervals just weaker than we had last winter.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

October 2025….Phase 5 peak +1.302…
October 2024….Phase 5 peak +2.762…ONI….latest weekly only -0.3

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Agree on the wave reflection, but I also suspect it's followed up by a SSW, thereafter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Weaker MJO 5 peak this October similar to the non PNA mismatch years like 2022, 2021, and 2016.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

October 2025….Phase 5 peak +1.302…
October 2024….Phase 5 peak +2.762…ONI….latest weekly only -0.3

October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0

October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0

October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3

October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0

October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

 

I see 1.463 in phase 5 on the 29th and 2.422 in phase 4 on the 24th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I any event, I do agree that the PNA will not be as positve as last winter. Not arguing that point.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see 1.463 in phase 5 on the 29th and 2.422 in phase 4 on the 24th.

It’s based in the peak MJO 5 phase in October. Since the MJO weakened into phase 5 after moving through phase 4. But even if that 2.42 made it into 5, then it would still be lower than the 2.76 to 3.35 of the mismatch years. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s based in the peak MJO 5 phase in October. Since the MJO weakened into phase 5 after moving through phase 4. But even if that 2.422 made it into 5 it would still be lower than the 2.76 to 3.35 of the mismatch years. 

IDK, seems kind of arbitrary to me, dude....pretty close to last year's 2.762. Furthermore, phase 4 is also in the MC. You do you, but I would be loathe to forecast a strong RNA in the mean. Again, agree weaker than last year's deviation, which isn't saying much.