2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

2013-2014 stands out like a sore thumb in the middle of that data.  Makes you realize just how much of an anomaly it was.

I am happy for you guys that you got in such a great winter just before the big winter temperature jump since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 
 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

@snowman19 will love Eric's x post

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1984452081617682708?t=6qNVfSMRsFXJChnmC4f3RQ&s=19

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

@snowman19 will love Eric's x post

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1984452081617682708?t=6qNVfSMRsFXJChnmC4f3RQ&s=19

Ok? Is this meant as a troll? I’m confused

[snowman19]

I really like how people who only post on these boards from November through the end of March (then go totally MIA for the other 7 months out of the year) show up here to troll members who have been contributing to this really informative thread all spring, summer and fall. It’s sad honestly and it’s banter. Don’t agree with someone because of perceived biases? Let’s attack and troll. They aren’t weather fans, they’re cold and snow fans only. And people wonder why great meteorologists like HM, Isotherm and a few others don’t ever post on here anymore

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I really like how people who only post on these boards from November through the end of March (then go totally MIA for the other 7 months out of the year) show up here to troll members who have been contributing to this really informative thread all spring, summer and fall. It’s sad honestly and it’s banter. Don’t agree with someone because of perceived biases? Let’s attack and troll. They aren’t weather fans, they’re cold and snow fans only. And people wonder why great meteorologists like HM, Isotherm and a few others don’t ever post on here anymore

No one is trolling  you. People think you are just a one sided poster .

[donsutherland1]

Continuing the test of the experimental objective analogs, here's the composite temperature idea for November:

For comparison, below are the CFSv2 and CPC forecasts.

CFSv2:

CPC:

 

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Continuing the test of the experimental objective analogs, here's the composite temperature idea for November:

For comparison, below are the CFSv2 and CPC forecasts.

CFSv2:

CPC:

 

New Cansips for November. Scroll forward for rest of the forecast. December looking like many other recent forecasts too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=0

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips for November. Scroll forward for rest of the forecast. December looking like many other recent forecasts too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=0

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs.  Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips for November. Scroll forward for rest of the forecast. December looking like many other recent forecasts too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=0

 

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies (vs colder 1981-2010 than 1991-2020) in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs.  Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

This is an experiment. I personally don't like 2011-12 and won't be using it in my winter outlook to be posted in mid-November. 2021-2022 is the only one from that set that will be used in my thinking. I'm just testing an experimental approach aimed at statistically generating analog cases with no human input to see how it does. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb.  The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen.  It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern.  If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies in the N Hem centered over the Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

It's something I'm watching. Some La Niñas have focused the coldest anomalies in the vicinity of the Great Lakes Region. Perhaps this will be the case. I'm hoping to see the ECMWF move in that direction when its new forecasts come out in a few days.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies (vs colder 1981-2010 than 1991-2020) in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

Followup: This was the 11/30/24 CANSIPS fcast for last winter, similar in much of the N Hem including even colder/coldest 1981-2010 anomalies in N Hem again centered over W Lakes:

 

What verified? It did well in most of the Conus but winter verified to be NN vs 81-00 in W Lakes/upper MW. The coldest was to the W in W Dakotas/SE MT, where Cansips was much too warm. So, is it possible that the CANSIPS has a cold bias in the W Great Lakes?

@donsutherland1@mitchnick@SnowGoose69

*Edit: corrected for 2 typos 

[MJO812]

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies (vs colder 1981-2010 than 1991-2020) in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

I hope the Blue Jays win the WS.

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

I mean that type of pattern just seems like the ordinary climatology for the coastal northeast (ie. only one month out of the three is consistently cold and snowy). Barring some anomalously cold and stormy periods in the little ice age, 1880s, 60s, 90s, late 2000-2010s, it's not historically typical in this part of the world for it to be real cold through the whole winter. At least according to Kocin and Unccelini, the characteristic of sporadic moderate (>4") to heavy (>10") snowstorms punctuated by periods of mild temperatures and dry ground is the norm.

This doesn't have all that much to do with this post but I just wanted to point it out cus I'm tired of seeing people dissapointed by "remarkably unwintry" seasons and periods that aren't really all that remarkable considering larger climatologies. There are near 10-year stretches in the late 20s/early 30s, late 40s/early 50s, early 70s where the average annual snowfall across the northeast corridor from DC to Portland was hardly above 25".  I've been reading accounts from the revolutionary war of the same "inch of snow transitioning to slush and cold rain" type weather in January that everyone complains about nowadays. This current period is a particularly severe bout, exacerbated by cc, but shouldn't be all that shocking. The NE corridor just isn't rly that cold.  

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am happy for you guys that you got in such a great winter just before the big winter temperature jump since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 
 

 

 

It wasnt just great, 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record in southeast MI. It followed multiple harsh winters beginning in 2002-03. The mild regime since has been concentrated on a handful of very warm winters and some average ones. Snowfall hasn't suffered greatly compared to longterm average, but took a steep decline from the record 2005-2015 stretch.

[snowman19]

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

If a AO-/NAO-/PNA+ pattern develops, it would have a higher frequency of snowfall in the New York City area and Northeast. Right now, the EPS shows the AO and NAO going negative toward November 25. The PNA remains neutral. But at this range, there's little skill. So, here are the numbers for New York City for November 25-December 10. 

Add an EPO-, and the respective percentages are 5.6%, 4.5%, 2.2% (89 cases) with all other cases being 3.2%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively (631 cases). The EPS shows an EPO-.

It should also be noted that numerous La Niña winters have gotten off to a fast start in terms of snowfall.

Separately, there's a race in time between what might be a potentially favorable snowfall pattern and a dismal snowfall statistic for New York City. Through October 31, New York City has gone 1,371 consecutive days without a 4" or above daily snowfall. The same applies for a 5" or above daily snowfall. The futility record for both cases is 1,394 consecutive days (February 22, 1929 - December 16, 1932). The futility record could be tied on November 23 and broken on November 24.

[EastonSN+]

47 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

I mean that type of pattern just seems like the ordinary climatology for the coastal northeast (ie. only one month out of the three is consistently cold and snowy). Barring some anomalously cold and stormy periods in the little ice age, 1880s, 60s, 90s, late 2000-2010s, it's not historically typical in this part of the world for it to be real cold through the whole winter. At least according to Kocin and Unccelini, the characteristic of sporadic moderate (>4") to heavy (>10") snowstorms punctuated by periods of mild temperatures and dry ground is the norm.

This doesn't have all that much to do with this post but I just wanted to point it out cus I'm tired of seeing people dissapointed by "remarkably unwintry" seasons and periods that aren't really all that remarkable considering larger climatologies. There are near 10-year stretches in the late 20s/early 30s, late 40s/early 50s, early 70s where the average annual snowfall across the northeast corridor from DC to Portland was hardly above 25".  I've been reading accounts from the revolutionary war of the same "inch of snow transitioning to slush and cold rain" type weather in January that everyone complains about nowadays. This current period is a particularly severe bout, exacerbated by cc, but shouldn't be all that shocking. The NE corridor just isn't rly that cold.  

My advice is to focus on 40/70 Benchmark and DonSutherland1 posts as they are non-biased and focus on the near term. I have personally blocked posters who are one sided and I am less frustrated.

For my area (tri state) the 90s were horrible for snow outside of 3 winters. From 1970 to 1999 only 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, so this period, to me personally, is not shocking at all. I THINK a lot has to do with how 2000 through 2018 mirrored 1955 through 1969 in terms of epic winters and KU events, and for posters who have not seen that many winters in their lifetimes these last few years have been a complete shock.

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

My advice is to focus on 40/70 Benchmark and DonSutherland1 posts as they are non-biased and focus on the near term. I have personally blocked posters who are one sided and I am less frustrated.

For my area (tri state) the 90s were horrible for snow outside of 3 winters. From 1970 to 1999 only 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, so this period, to me personally, is not shocking at all. I THINK a lot has to do with how 2000 through 2018 mirrored 1955 through 1969 in terms of epic winters and KU events, and for posters who have not seen that many winters in their lifetimes these last few years have been a complete shock.

This is an interesting take. Because I always get the impression that the 90s were beloved on the east coast. The decade of the 1990s as a whole was very meh snow wise here in southeast MI. Of course there were moments, but every decade has them. The 2000s and 2010s were FAR superior to the 1990s, and even the maligned 2020s has averaged around the same (halfway thru) as the 1990s (full decade) did.

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is an interesting take. Because I always get the impression that the 90s were beloved on the east coast. The decade of the 1990s as a whole was very meh snow wise here in southeast MI. Of course there were moments, but every decade has them. The 2000s and 2010s were FAR superior to the 1990s, and even the maligned 2020s has averaged around the same (halfway thru) as the 1990s (full decade) did.

The 90s were odd depending where you were.  92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters.  93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas.  At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 90s were odd depending where you were.  92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters.  93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas.  At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though 

Well…. technically 96-97 was a bad winter even in Boston

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Separately, there's a race in time between what might be a potentially favorable snowfall pattern and a dismal snowfall statistic for New York City. Through October 31, New York City has gone 1,371 consecutive days without a 4" or above daily snowfall. The same applies for a 5" or above daily snowfall. The futility record for both cases is 1,394 consecutive days (February 22, 1939 - December 16, 1932). The futility record could be tied on November 23 and broken on November 24.

Should be February 22, 1929.

Also, if NYC doesn't get a 10-inch snowstorm, it will be the 9th out of 10 seasons without a 10-inch snowstorm (only 2020-21 had a snowstorm >10 inches). I think it will be the first time that NYC hasn't had a 10-inch snowstorm 5 years in a row, breaking a tie with 2016-17 to 2019-20.

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

Well…. technically 96-97 was a bad winter even in Boston

I guess the snow total was skewed by the 4/1 event.  Overall it was a strange winter because indice wise it was good in December and January.  There was just no snow or it was all inland 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Should be February 22, 1929.

Also, if NYC doesn't get a 10-inch snowstorm, it will be the 9th out of 10 seasons without a 10-inch snowstorm (only 2020-21 had a snowstorm >10 inches). I think it will be the first time that NYC hasn't had a 10-inch snowstorm 5 years in a row, breaking a tie with 2016-17 to 2019-20.

Thanks. I fixed the typo. 

I am currently thinking NYC will see 15”-25” snowfall during 2025-2026. Of the 53 seasons with such snowfall, 16 (30.2%) had at least one 2-day figure of 10” or more. The most recent was 11.4”, February 8-9, 2013). The figure for all other seasons is 40.0%, meaning that it might be somewhat but not much more challenging to see such a snowfall this winter. Of course, that assumes my current thinking is accurate.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 90s were odd depending where you were.  92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters.  93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas.  At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though 

The period from 1979-1993 sucked for snow in the I-95 corridor. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The period from 1979-1993 sucked for snow in the I-95 corridor. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard

There was just a ton of bad luck.  It wasn’t so much the winter patterns were bad outside of 82-83 84-85 and 88-89.  Even 89-90 December was decent it was just that everything got suppressed