2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

2013-2014 stands out like a sore thumb in the middle of that data.  Makes you realize just how much of an anomaly it was.

I am happy for you guys that you got in such a great winter just before the big winter temperature jump since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 
 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

@snowman19 will love Eric's x post

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1984452081617682708?t=6qNVfSMRsFXJChnmC4f3RQ&s=19

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

@snowman19 will love Eric's x post

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1984452081617682708?t=6qNVfSMRsFXJChnmC4f3RQ&s=19

Ok? Is this meant as a troll? I’m confused

[snowman19]

I really like how people who only post on these boards from November through the end of March (then go totally MIA for the other 7 months out of the year) show up here to troll members who have been contributing to this really informative thread all spring, summer and fall. It’s sad honestly and it’s banter. Don’t agree with someone because of perceived biases? Let’s attack and troll. They aren’t weather fans, they’re cold and snow fans only. And people wonder why great meteorologists like HM, Isotherm and a few others don’t ever post on here anymore

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I really like how people who only post on these boards from November through the end of March (then go totally MIA for the other 7 months out of the year) show up here to troll members who have been contributing to this really informative thread all spring, summer and fall. It’s sad honestly and it’s banter. Don’t agree with someone because of perceived biases? Let’s attack and troll. They aren’t weather fans, they’re cold and snow fans only. And people wonder why great meteorologists like HM, Isotherm and a few others don’t ever post on here anymore

No one is trolling  you. People think you are just a one sided poster .

[donsutherland1]

Continuing the test of the experimental objective analogs, here's the composite temperature idea for November:

For comparison, below are the CFSv2 and CPC forecasts.

CFSv2:

CPC:

 

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Continuing the test of the experimental objective analogs, here's the composite temperature idea for November:

For comparison, below are the CFSv2 and CPC forecasts.

CFSv2:

CPC:

 

New Cansips for November. Scroll forward for rest of the forecast. December looking like many other recent forecasts too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=0

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips for November. Scroll forward for rest of the forecast. December looking like many other recent forecasts too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=0

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs.  Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips for November. Scroll forward for rest of the forecast. December looking like many other recent forecasts too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=0

 

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The December CANSIPS idea seems good to me. It’s also something one should expect with La Niña.

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies (vs colder 1981-2010 than 1991-2020) in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs.  Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

This is an experiment. I personally don't like 2011-12 and won't be using it in my winter outlook to be posted in mid-November. 2021-2022 is the only one from that set that will be used in my thinking. I'm just testing an experimental approach aimed at statistically generating analog cases with no human input to see how it does. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb.  The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen.  It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern.  If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies in the N Hem centered over the Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

It's something I'm watching. Some La Niñas have focused the coldest anomalies in the vicinity of the Great Lakes Region. Perhaps this will be the case. I'm hoping to see the ECMWF move in that direction when its new forecasts come out in a few days.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies (vs colder 1981-2010 than 1991-2020) in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

Followup: This was the 11/30/24 CANSIPS fcast for last winter, similar in much of the N Hem including even colder/coldest 1981-2010 anomalies in N Hem again centered over W Lakes:

 

What verified? It did well in most of the Conus but winter verified to be NN vs 81-00 in W Lakes/upper MW. The coldest was to the W in W Dakotas/SE MT, where Cansips was much too warm. So, is it possible that the CANSIPS has a cold bias in the W Great Lakes?

@donsutherland1@mitchnick@SnowGoose69

*Edit: corrected for 2 typos 

[MJO812]

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The new CANSIPS for DJF is the 9th in a row with the coldest winter anomalies (vs colder 1981-2010 than 1991-2020) in the N Hem centered over the W. Great Lakes:

 

Any thoughts?

I hope the Blue Jays win the WS.

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The thing I worry about with your composite is that in those 3 years (2011, 2016, and 2021), only one of the 9 winter months that followed (January 2022) produced a good cold and snowy month. The rest of the months were blowtorches.

I mean that type of pattern just seems like the ordinary climatology for the coastal northeast (ie. only one month out of the three is consistently cold and snowy). Barring some anomalously cold and stormy periods in the little ice age, 1880s, 60s, 90s, late 2000-2010s, it's not historically typical in this part of the world for it to be real cold through the whole winter. At least according to Kocin and Unccelini, the characteristic of sporadic moderate (>4") to heavy (>10") snowstorms punctuated by periods of mild temperatures and dry ground is the norm.

This doesn't have all that much to do with this post but I just wanted to point it out cus I'm tired of seeing people dissapointed by "remarkably unwintry" seasons and periods that aren't really all that remarkable considering larger climatologies. There are near 10-year stretches in the late 20s/early 30s, late 40s/early 50s, early 70s where the average annual snowfall across the northeast corridor from DC to Portland was hardly above 25".  I've been reading accounts from the revolutionary war of the same "inch of snow transitioning to slush and cold rain" type weather in January that everyone complains about nowadays. This current period is a particularly severe bout, exacerbated by cc, but shouldn't be all that shocking. The NE corridor just isn't rly that cold.