2025-2026 ENSO

[anthonymm]

51 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Accuwx winter forecast: opinions?

Significantly more snow than last winter NE to MW and less much of SE:

 

Cold MW and NN to slightly AN much of East:

I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine.

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I'd go lower for philly and nyc. Likely both single digits. Also a warmer on the coast than what they have. Otherwise fine.

Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both .  Snow cover up north looks good. 

Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Here comes the screaming pac jet. All 3 winter months should be at least + 5 F for the nyc metro, plenty of -PNA, +NAO, cutters etc. Should be a massive winter for the west though. Wouldn't be surprised if Seattle racks up double whatever single digit number we get.

Another bold post in October.

[anthonymm]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lower? Thats bold since the LA Nina isnt even going to be strong . I would go higher for both .  Snow cover up north looks good. 

Having a weak la Nina to neutral enso is great for Philly and NYC. This has a chance to be the best winter in years.

We had that same setup last year and it was very cold (compared to the last several years). Still couldn't even crack 13" in the park, and it's unlikely next winter will be as cold as last. The setup reminds me of 2022-2023 to be honest (2" of snow that whole winter).

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, raindancewx said:

By the way, I settled on this for analogs for temperatures for the cold season:

Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb: 2013-14 (x4), 2024-25 (x4), 2018-19, 2022-23

Mar, Apr: 2019 (x4), 2023 (x4), 2014, 2025

Hey Raindance,

 Did you figure in the QBO? It appears you didn’t and/or don’t feel it’s important enough to consider it. I’m saying that because your 2 prime analogs for Oct-Feb, 2013-4 and 2024-5, had the exact opposite QBO of where 2025-6 will be. Please explain. Thanks.

 

[donsutherland1]

To date, among the emerging cases that could provide insight into Winter 2025-2026 temperatures is 2021 (ENSO, RONI, QBO, IOD, and PDO). Consistent with the lack of statistical relationship between ACE and winter temperatures/snowfall, ACE isn't considered. 

Solar flux is also a mismatch (suggesting perhaps a milder version of 2021-2022), but for now this is an emerging case. The evolution of the North Pacific SSTAs and continuing evolution of ENSO will be important factors. 

Here's the fall 2025 outlook using 2021:

 

 

Fall 2025 (through October 10):

Winter 2025-2026 using 2021-2022:

ECMWF DJF Forecast:

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

To date, among the emerging cases that could provide insight into Winter 2025-2026 temperatures is 2021 (ENSO, RONI, QBO, IOD, and PDO). Consistent with the lack of statistical relationship between ACE and winter temperatures/snowfall, ACE isn't considered. 

Solar flux is also a mismatch (suggesting perhaps a milder version of 2021-2022), but for now this is an emerging case. The evolution of the North Pacific SSTAs and continuing evolution of ENSO will be important factors. 

Here's the fall 2025 outlook using 2021:

 

 

Fall 2025 (through October 10):

Winter 2025-2026 using 2021-2022:

ECMWF DJF Forecast:

Hey Don,

 What do you feel are the chances that the Euro winter outlook will verify to be significantly too warm in the NE US similar to other Euro Oct winter forecasts like the +4F miss of last winter or the +2.5F miss of 2020-1?

 Or do you think it has a decent shot at verifying significantly too cool like 2023-4 and 2022-3, which each missed by -3F?

 OTOH, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, and 2017-8 all missed <2 in either direction.

-Oct DJF prog misses for NE US for the 8 winters starting with 2024-5 and ending with 2017-8:

+4, -3, -3, +1, +2.5, -1.5,  0, +0.5. So, avg Oct miss for DJF in the NE was ~0F meaning no apparent bias.

@Daniel Boonebecause I told you I’d review the Euro to see if there were a detectable bias in either direction. I’d say the answer is no.

[BxEngine]

ENSO thread. Not the NYC who can be more wrong and whine forum. 

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

To date, among the emerging cases that could provide insight into Winter 2025-2026 temperatures is 2021 (ENSO, RONI, QBO, IOD, and PDO). Consistent with the lack of statistical relationship between ACE and winter temperatures/snowfall, ACE isn't considered. 
Solar flux is also a mismatch (suggesting perhaps a milder version of 2021-2022), but for now this is an emerging case. The evolution of the North Pacific SSTAs and continuing evolution of ENSO will be important factors. 
Here's the fall 2025 outlook using 2021:

 
 
Fall 2025 (through October 10):

Winter 2025-2026 using 2021-2022:


ECMWF DJF Forecast:

The one main staple over the last several winters besides the negative ENSO tendency and reoccurring MJO phases has been the marine heatwave in the NW PAC around Japan. It’s been extremely anomalous

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

If this pattern continues into November, at least as far as the “warm blob”/2013 SST pattern, it’s going to be real difficult to continue to use it as an SST analog. The warm blob came right back in early November, 2013 and we went into a Victoria mode PDO for the winter. So far, the cooling has not reversed over the last month and is continuing….

[bluewave]

On 10/11/2025 at 9:52 AM, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave This may end up being the strongest storm/low in history for the Bering Sea….almost 950mb
 

Another 5 sigma jet max for Alaska. The strong gradient between the  record SSTs over the WPAC and Siberian cold is driving this. So this leads to the continuing warmth for North America. 


 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Another bold post in October.

Pretty sure he's just in a bruised and battered persistence "forecasting" mindset.

[bluewave]

On 10/10/2025 at 7:32 PM, anthonymm said:

So to be clear, last year was too suppressed for nyc, but next will be too much se ridging for us. Cool, cool we always lose. 

The only month last winter that suppression was an issue for NYC Metro was January.

Those teleconnections could have worked for us prior to 18-19 especially in an El Niño dominant STJ pattern. But the split flow and overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet instead caused the Southern stream suppression.

Both December and February were fairly wet but the storm tracks were too warm to our west for a major snow event. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only month last winter that suppression was an issue for NYC Metro was January.

Those teleconnections could have worked for us prior to 18-19 for us especially in an El Niño dominant STJ pattern. But the split flow and overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet instead caused the Southern stream suppression.

Both December and February were fairly wet but the storm tracks were too warm to our west for a major snow event. 

DC and Baltimore had some good snowstorms in January. That hasn't happened in a long time. Even Philly got a good storm in on 1/19 (otherwise we have a different Super Bowl winner because the Rams probably win that day).

While December was wet, February was not. At least in my area. It really didn't turn wet until 3/5, and by that time, temps had turned above average and winter was pretty much over. But there was a good storm track on 2/20. It just went too far east, and places like Norfolk and Virginia Beach got a major snow event.

I chalk up 2024-25 as just bad luck for NYC. I mean, you had major snow events in places like Baltimore, DC, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. It's been a long time since that happened.

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Don,

 What do you feel are the chances that the Euro winter outlook will verify to be significantly too warm in the NE US similar to other Euro Oct winter forecasts like the +4F miss of last winter or the +2.5F miss of 2020-1?

 Or do you think it has a decent shot at verifying significantly too cool like 2023-4 and 2022-3, which each missed by -3F?

 OTOH, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, and 2017-8 all missed <2 in either direction.

-Oct DJF prog misses for NE US for the 8 winters starting with 2024-5 and ending with 2017-8:

+4, -3, -3, +1, +2.5, -1.5,  0, +0.5. So, avg Oct miss for DJF in the NE was ~0F meaning no apparent bias.

@Daniel Boonebecause I told you I’d review the Euro to see if there were a detectable bias in either direction. I’d say the answer is no.

It's too soon to tell. Last winter's miss was unusually large. One can probably use a +/- 1°C range to consider reasonable possibilities. 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

DC and Baltimore had some good snowstorms in January. That hasn't happened in a long time. Even Philly got a good storm in on 1/19 (otherwise we have a different Super Bowl winner because the Rams probably win that day).

While December was wet, February was not. At least in my area. It really didn't turn wet until 3/5, and by that time, temps had turned above average and winter was pretty much over. But there was a good storm track on 2/20. It just went too far east, and places like Norfolk and Virginia Beach got a major snow event.

I chalk up 2024-25 as just bad luck for NYC. I mean, you had major snow events in places like Baltimore, DC, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach. It's been a long time since that happened.

The storms from DC to Philly in January weren’t that impressive compared to what they used to get in the past. Suppression was still at play even in northern sections of those areas.

My area in February was wet but only the weaker storms were cold enough for some snows. The strongest storm had highs near 60° and heavy rain.

We can refer to luck as a one-off or random event. But the continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks with the much faster Northern stream of Pacific Jet since 18-19 is a dominant weather pattern that doesn’t involve luck.