2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

New Cansips run looks very similar to last couple months with normal to BN 40N into Canada fwiw. Pretty consistent ridging over/near Alaska and poleward with SE ridging around until February. 

It has remained remarkably consistent for months now with its winter outlook.

[GaWx]

 AAM finally going - (Ninaish):

[snowman19]

 AAM finally going - (Ninaish):

I’m expecting a -AAM dominant fall

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It has remained remarkably consistent for months now with its winter outlook.

"Well, in this new, warmer climate, guidance has consistently underestimated the southeast ridge, time of the MJO spent in (insert undesirable phase) and (insert undesired weather)".

[donsutherland1]

The CANSIPS (cool) and CFSv2 (warm) are at odds regarding the fall outcome in the central U.S. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF seasonal forecast shows when it comes out in a few days.

[raindancewx]

The lowest ACE La Ninas tend to see severe cold dumps / cold waves into the West in Nov-Feb. For whatever reason the trend doesn't hold in the cold neutrals. The recent average ACE in hurricane seasons immediately before a La Nina winter is something like 160. Canadian doesn't really have a La Nina. Inactive September in La Nina can often precede a severely cold January nationally too if you look.

My assumption is this entire setup will show up, shoved south in the winter. Unlikely to be the dominant pattern. But as a recurring minor setup. The setup moved far enough south would be +WPO with a +PNA - that's a pretty wet pattern out here in the Fall/Spring if it is in place during those times. Not as good for winter locally. Parts of the look show similarities to the quite hurricane seasons of 2013 and 2022. September 2013 is wettest on record locally, with Feb-Apr 2023 seeing severe cold for the time. We had a low of 21F here in April 2023, all time record for April here is like 18F. If you push everything south its a good pattern Plains like 2013, if you push it southeast, good pattern west like 2022. The high south of South America would be by Greenland and the big low SE of Australia would move to the Western US with the low over Kamchatka and the high off southeast asia instead of east of Japan.

This is the southeast movement solution (Feb 1-Apr 7 2023)

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

This is the southeast movement solution (Feb 1-Apr 7 2023)

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I never got the ACE/Winter relationship. It seems a little dreamy. A caveat is there are probably macro factors that correlate the two variables. Last Winter we did have colder weather after a high Atlantic ACE, with some (although short timed) -NAO and -AO bouts. The top Winter analog years after high Atlantic ACE does have an unusually east-based -NAO Winter, but it could be because of not enough examples. I haven't heard of Winter cold coming after a low ACE season though, and I don't know that it will actually be a low ACE season.. the NAO/AO have been positive thus far, but long range models are trying to neutralize that going into mid-August. These positive AO periods the last 2 years have been complete shut down of Atlantic activity - but that's the macro variable, the +AO. It might be easier and a bit more accurate to run that variable forward. 

[snowman19]

The CANSIPS (cool) and CFSv2 (warm) are at odds regarding the fall outcome in the central U.S. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF seasonal forecast shows when it comes out in a few days.

If we do indeed flip to a -AAM regime along with -PDO and -ENSO/Nina, the CANSIPS for fall (SON) makes no sense

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I haven't heard of Winter cold coming after a low ACE season though, and I don't know that it will actually be a low ACE season..

2013-14 and 2014-15 came after low ACE seasons. Low ACE season is pretty much locked unless we get a Hurricane Andrew, and even then, we'll probably still finish below average in ACE. (1992 finished with 76 ACE despite having Hurricane Andrew.)

I feel like the hand has been dealt. The East Pacific is having a very active year, while the Atlantic has been very quiet. It's August now, and that's probably not going to suddenly shift gears at this point. (If the Atlantic was going to get active, we would have seen it by now. Even 2004 got started with Alex  late in July. We're already past that, and this season has been completely blank.) The question now is if the Atlantic will get that big storm (like Andrew in 1992) or if we're going to get shut out (like in 2013).

[snowman19]

[mention=564]Bluewave[/mention] Was your MJO fall indicator for winter September or October? So far, since spring the MJO waves have been very heavily favoring phases 5-6-7, but with nowhere near the record strength/amplitude we saw last year