2025-2026 ENSO

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh okay gotcha thank you michsnowfreak im hoping i could at least move somewhere maybe the mid atlantic or new england area if they get a lot of snow there

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Most of your posts have a bias but are at least decent material. This one is pure crap. Did it ever occur to you that everyone doesn't care that the earth is warming? I'd bet any money that the people in this forum who care the least are actually the one who live the most green, planet friendly lives. It isnt fair that hes tired of hearing the same crap over and over? Its downright bullying at times in here. Someone can reminisce about a past event of any kind and they get a cc lecture. Its gotten that bad in here. And if you think that every region is warming at the same rate then you really DONT understand climate as much as you claim to. 

With NYC i notice you concentrate on snow. Last winter was much colder than you anticipated, so the focus was really on lack of NYC snowfall. Not that I blame you. Because the bottom line for most winter lovers is SNOW not temps. Which is why I could not care less how much this station or that station has warmed in 150 years (or the "quality controlled" maps which show more warming than any individual station). I care about snow and snowcover. And if youre looking for a decrease in those, I suggest either using old coop data with lots of missing data or perhaps using a unique dataset 1880-2025 which cuts out 1930-1970 so it will show a decrease in snowfall in SE MI. In fact, using the Ann Arbor data that was brought up (since its a crime to use a threaded first order station if its moved), days with snowcover have INCREASED since records began. 

You are yet to point out any bias in my posts. I agree with you that everyone doesn’t care about the warming. But if you want to make a decent forecast of any kind, then you need to understand how these significant and frequent baseline temperature jumps have been influencing the sensible winter weather. Since the sensible weather at any given global climate era in Earths long history has been a function of the baseline temperature regimes of those eras. 

You mention bullying. But it’s Ironic that you have used the most harsh language and displayed an angry demeanor with anyone that disagrees with you on these forums. I respectfully disagree with some posts and provide data as to my thinking. All you seem to do is hurl insults. What you call lecturing is a discussion of the actual weather we have been experiencing. But I will chalk this up to not actually meeting in person and perhaps is a bit of a keyboard warrior schtick on your part. I would bet we could have some more civil conversations if I met you at one of the conferences. Since sometimes people get the wrong idea without actually meeting in person.

As to last winter, I was anticipating the mismatch as early as last October. So the NYC temperatures verified to the warm side of past mismatch instances. But I pointed this out this in my early season analysis. The winter average temperature in NYC this past season was close to the average before the baseline jumps of recent decades. So it wasn’t anywhere near as cold as some of the great winters were prior to the baseline jump in 15-16.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think anyone would mistake last winter for a "great season"....the storm track still blew dead rats due in large part to the west PAC....I know I have said this before, but I would honestly take one of the warmer/wetter recent winters over last year. 1/7/2024 blew anything I saw last winter out of the water. 2' of snow is still awesome to witness regardless of how quickly it melts....a 6" stale pack just doesn't do as much for me unless its the holidays.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You are yet to point out any bias in my posts. I agree with you that everyone doesn’t care about the warming. But if you want to make a decent forecast of any kind, then you need to understand how these significant and frequent baseline temperature jumps have been influencing the sensible winter weather. Since the sensible weather at any given global climate era in Earths long history has been a function of the baseline temperature regimes of those eras. 

You mention bullying. But it’s Ironic that you have used the most harsh language and displayed an angry demeanor with anyone that disagrees with you on these forums. I respectfully disagree with some posts and provide data as to my thinking. All you seem to do is hurl insults. What you call lecturing is a discussion of the actual weather we have been experiencing. But I will chalk this up to not actually meeting in person and perhaps is a bit of a keyboard warrior schtick on your part. I would bet we could have some more civil conversations if I met you at one of the conferences. Since sometimes people get the wrong idea without actually meeting in person.

As to last winter, I was anticipating the mismatch as early as last October. So the NYC temperatures verified to the warm side of past mismatch instances. But I pointed this out this in my early season analysis. The winter average temperature in NYC this past season was close to the average before the baseline jumps of recent decades. So it wasn’t anywhere near as cold as some of the great winters were prior to the baseline jump in 15-16.

I suspect meeting in person and discussing weather/climate would throw some unexpected surprises at people, for the better. Its a little more difficult when you are interpreting tone in typed words. Again I had no ill intent towards you. Years ago I met Alek (a lakes poster) at a Tigers/Cubs game and he wasn't anything like it expected (he was way nicer).

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I suspect meeting in person and discussing weather/climate would throw some unexpected surprises at people, for the better. Its a little more difficult when you are interpreting tone in typed words. Again I had no ill intent towards you. Years ago I met Alek (a lakes poster) at a Tigers/Cubs game and he wasn't anything like it expected (he was way nicer).

Wait seriously? I wouldn't have expected that at all based on other threads, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I suspect meeting in person and discussing weather/climate would throw some unexpected surprises at people, for the better. Its a little more difficult when you are interpreting tone in typed words. Again I had no ill intent towards you. Years ago I met Alek (a lakes poster) at a Tigers/Cubs game and he wasn't anything like it expected (he was way nicer).

Its much easier to be abrasive online because its a much more impersonal mode of communication.

[BuffaloWeather]

Last winter was a historic one for the lakes. Expect this one to be similar with a more active synoptic track. It can't get much worse than last winter for snowstorms. I don't think we had one winter storm watch, despite the chilly temps. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last winter was a historic one for the lakes. Expect this one to be similar with a more active synoptic track. It can't get much worse than last winter for snowstorms. I don't think we had one winter storm watch, despite the chilly temps. 

My heart weeps for you...

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, but it also goes beyond the opposite SST pattern in 13-14 to what we have today. That winter was also the function of a colder climate era before the big baseline temperature jumps in 15-16 and 23-24. So even a complete reversal of the Pacific pattern at some point in the future probably wouldn’t yield an outcome as cold or snowy. Plus the Northern Hemisphere cold pool during the winters have become so small, that the 500mb ridges would be more expansive and troughs smaller than 13-14. 

We would need a major volcanic eruption to ever see a repeat of winters like 1975-1976, 1995-1996, 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015. This is why I don’t like using those analogs since they were products of much colder background states. Last December I didn’t think that some talk of a 2013-2014 ABNA style pattern repeating would be supported by this warmer climate. This turned out to be correct. 

How does an El Nino change the pattern beyond general global warming, which is a broad thing? I'm referring more to the -PNA pattern that has happened years after the Super Nino's of 97-98, 15-16, 23-24. (There's probably an answer but I don't know it). I'm talking about the meteorology aspect. You seem to be convinced that there firm or absolute starting points to "next level things", that we are counting 2, 8, and 27 years from. Maybe in a broad sense, but the problem has been upper latitude index patterns, and unless you can connect the adjoining features it's probably not something to be so absolute on. Last year from late Nov to late Feb we had a very cold period across the CONUS, which breaks the absolute theory, I don't remember you talking about that happening from last Fall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How does an El Nino change the pattern beyond general global warming, which is a broad thing? I'm referring more to the -PNA pattern that has happened years after the Super Nino's of 97-98, 15-16, 23-24. (There's probably an answer but I don't know it). I'm talking about the meteorology aspect. You seem to be convinced that there firm or absolute starting points to "next level things", that we are counting 2, 8, and 27 years from. Maybe in a broad sense, but the problem has been upper latitude index patterns, and unless you can connect the adjoining features it's probably not something to be so absolute on. Last year from late Nov to late Feb we had a very cold period across the CONUS, which breaks the absolute theory, I don't remember you talking about that happening from last Fall. 

I have pointed that out a few times and he has never addressed it. He keeps mentioning how he predicted the mismatch period, but that wasn't simply a mismatch period....it was just a colder pattern that lasted well over a month.  I didn't foresee that, either....I also was looking for a mismatch month, but it was more than that...otherwise it would have been much above normal like the last several seasons, but it was near normal.

[GaWx]

AAM: still has Ninoish peak next week

 

Prior run (6 days ago):

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have pointed that out a few times and he has never addressed it. He keeps mentioning how he predicated the mismatch period, but that wasn't simply a mismatch period....it was just a colder pattern that lasted well over a month.  I didn't foresee that, either....I also was looking for a mismatch month, but it was more than that...otherwise it would have been much above normal like the last several seasons, but it was near normal.

It was a legitimate Winter cold period. There was not a SE ridge under -NAO like the last few years had, had. I realize NYC was not at the epicenter, but that doesn't mean anything less about it.. there were Winter time temperatures late November through late February, it ended very quickly after that but it was also the first prolonged below average period like that in more than several years.. I was thinking the cold Summer H5 +NAO last Summer might create a -EPO pattern, but I was a little taken by the +PNA and how the Fall -PDO basically had no effect on Winter temps until March.  Phoenix broke their previous Summer record by a lot last year.. more than 40 days of consecutive 100F+ over year number 2. Those analogs were very +PNA Dec/Jan, I guess it had valiance, but I was a little skeptical. 

[LakePaste25]

Shades of 2011 where we see the extreme June ridge return for a second time in late July, but further west this time. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/18/2025 at 5:37 PM, michsnowfreak said:

No YOU are something else. I picked a round figure- 100 years. Using the same graphs you always use. This is so rich coming from someone who goes into everyones subforum (where most ignore you) with the most random data for the most random starting points. You just pick based on whatever gives you what you want. One minute youll use POR the next you will decry it. I never said I threw out data, I brought up how the 1880s data seemed low at this coop station. Meanwhile, you ALWAYS have a problem with older data you dont like and are always discounting it. See, ive studied my areas climate data for years. You just plug in numbers for anything anywhere to find what you want. Since you got so offended that I questioned anything about the Ann Arbor data, you must LOVE how their winter temps have remained pretty steady for decades and snowfall has MORE THAN DOUBLED since records began.

I don't CHERRY PICK anything. I also am not opposed to using raw data to show broad trends, but it's important to be mindful of the possible biases in the data being presented. How is noting a bias in the data being biased? As far as any problem with the Ann Arbor data, I'm not seeing it. It's right in line with the rest of southern Michigan for data from the late 1880s - 1890s period, which is freely accessible from NCEI.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't CHERRY PICK anything. I also am not opposed to using raw data to show broad trends, but it's important to be mindful of the possible biases in the data being presented. How is noting a bias in the data being biased? As far as any problem with the Ann Arbor data, I'm not seeing it. It's right in line with the rest of southern Michigan for data from the late 1880s - 1890s period, which is freely accessible from NCEI.

 

Heck, it aligns almost perfectly with the Detroit threaded record. A touch colder in the early decades, but not surprising considering given the siting/location of the Detroit City record in that era. In recent years, it has shown somewhat less warming, although the broad trends align VERY closely.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have pointed that out a few times and he has never addressed it. He keeps mentioning how he predicted the mismatch period, but that wasn't simply a mismatch period....it was just a colder pattern that lasted well over a month.  I didn't foresee that, either....I also was looking for a mismatch month, but it was more than that...otherwise it would have been much above normal like the last several seasons, but it was near normal.

I don't even get where he stressed that it would be a mis-match Winter. I think every year it is said, "there is also the chance that mismatch could occur at sometime if X and Y", but that's just being wishy-washy imo. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait seriously? I wouldn't have expected that at all based on other threads, lol

That's the beauty of meeting in person. We were as friendly as can be. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't even get where he stressed that it would be a mis-match Winter. I think every year it is said, "there is also the chance that mismatch could occur at sometime if X and Y", but that's just being wishy-washy imo. 

He had an insight that there tends to be a mismatch period from the prevailing MC forcing when the MJO is amplified in the MC during the month of October, as it was last year.

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

That's the beauty of meeting in person. We were as friendly as can be. 

 But there’s no good reason imho to not be that way online as long as most others are that way in their interactions. People look at this in different ways. Some say that the real person may show up better online because of less inhibition to be oneself. OTOH, there are many trolls online.

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Perfect post! Its why so many dont post here anymore. Its so tiresome when posting FACTUAL data for MY area I get responses from people who dont live here posting unrelated graphs (always love the smoothed out random county average maps that come from some unknown "smoothing" and "quality control"). I discuss actual events/facts/trends for certain winters and then get a response with an unrelated chart of a mean temp. Happens every time. Its nauseating. Its like you have to stroke the climate change egos by mentioning it in EVERY SINGLE POST. And God forbid you post something about recent cold/snow and/or a warm/low snow winter of the past. Prepare for the wrath.

I grew up with an interest in weather for my region. Not in a gridded anamoly for the earth. 

See this kind of rhetoric is unnecessary. The NCEI trend for Southeast Lower Michigan is in close agreement with the Ann Arbor and Detroit data, with the exception that the mean temperature is somewhat below those sites (since the district as a whole is somewhat closer), even without any adjustments for discontinuities (location change) or changes in equipment or time of observations. Maybe a case could be made that the January trend is a little inflated, but all of these sites still show warming in January. And for the annual change, it's quite close to NCEI's numbers. It should be noted that there is NO time of observation bias in the Ann Arbor data - unlike most cooperative observers, they have maintained a consistent evening observation time. Of course, there's none in the Detroit data either (consistent midnight-midnight day, per Weather Bureau standards), but there are a couple of important site changes.

[raindancewx]

The mismatch thing is just an excuse to say even though all periods should be warm, some will still be cold because the mechanisms driving the warmth are actually only moderately strong correlation rather than direct cause.

It's a bit like people predicting the stock market who always forecast record highs and growth because you get geometric real returns of 7-8% over long periods, even though some years still finish with negative annual returns.

If it was winter right now, the cold Tropical Atlantic, relatively warm Nino 1.2 v. cool Nino 4 would imply a neutral AMO and a Modoki la Nina with the -PDO. You'd see huge dumps of cold alternating between the Plains and West. The precipitation pattern on the Canadian at the equator in winter looks most similar to MJO five for the winter, with four somewhat close too.

I generally use SST indicators as a guideline for predicting the major indices in winter. You can see huge areas of the Atlantic and Pacific predict WPO behavior in winter in the Summer - and favor the +WPO which also favors Western cold in both Fall (Oct-Nov) and Feb-Apr. WPO also tends to 'bully' the NAO primary phase into place to some extent.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Nice post. Pretty clear Atlantic-tripole there, with both phases considered. It's always fun to see whole patterns with good lead time. Also interesting the bullying of WPO and NAO as the both seem to correlate with warmer SSTAs near southern Asia. The lead SSTA's for Winter WPO I found peaks at +0.61 correlation just SE of India, Aug-Nov before Dec-March. Overall it's pretty high in the Indian Ocean late Summer-Fall before WPO-Winters. There is a +PDO in the Spring/early Summer to following Winter +WPO signal (and visa-versa) as well. 

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

How does an El Nino change the pattern beyond general global warming, which is a broad thing? I'm referring more to the -PNA pattern that has happened years after the Super Nino's of 97-98, 15-16, 23-24. (There's probably an answer but I don't know it). I'm talking about the meteorology aspect. You seem to be convinced that there firm or absolute starting points to "next level things", that we are counting 2, 8, and 27 years from. Maybe in a broad sense, but the problem has been upper latitude index patterns, and unless you can connect the adjoining features it's probably not something to be so absolute on. Last year from late Nov to late Feb we had a very cold period across the CONUS, which breaks the absolute theory, I don't remember you talking about that happening from last Fall. 

 Im curious if the current Enso situation has anything to do with the lack of tropical activity thru July 19th

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Im curious if the current Enso situation has anything to do with the lack of tropical activity thru July 19th

I found that there was a clear N. Hemisphere SLP pattern, especially in the Atlantic, Apr-May before active vs inactive seasons. I posted about it here:

We had a little bit of an opposite-tripole this year.