2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

NWS Mount Holly confirmed tornado in Sussex County, DE from yesterday. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Also confirmed a Dorchester County tornado

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2025/md0929.html

 

 

[high risk]

I was expecting thunderstorms today, but I did not think we’d get a warning in the local area. 

[high risk]

I'm super happy that we're putting a legit dent in our drought, but at the same time, I'm bummed that we're wasting our peak climo period for severe weather.     Maybe by the end of next week?.......

[Kmlwx]

7 hours ago, high risk said:

I'm super happy that we're putting a legit dent in our drought, but at the same time, I'm bummed that we're wasting our peak climo period for severe weather.     Maybe by the end of next week?.......

It's been pretty uneventful this year in our area in the severe department. I might have to stop using the WxWatcher007 blanket....it might actually be a curse. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

It's been pretty uneventful this year in our area in the severe department. I might have to stop using the WxWatcher007 blanket....it might actually be a curse. 

Been pretty uneventful for years it seems? 

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Been pretty uneventful for years it seems? 

Fully selfish but in the past 5 I’ve had the microburst and the Arlington EF1 - which isn’t a terrible half decade. I guess general I’d say the storms feel a little wimpier, though. 

[Rhino16]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Been pretty uneventful for years it seems? 

I’ve forgotten what good storms are like. Makes me want to return to the plains.

[high risk]

5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

It's been pretty uneventful this year in our area in the severe department. I might have to stop using the WxWatcher007 blanket....it might actually be a curse. 

         I may have gotten the atmosphere's attention with my complaint...   Friday is at least worth a look.   We will have a deepening surface low track just to our north which is often a good setup.    The instability might end up being too weak, but the HiResW FV3 gets my attention.

[Kmlwx]

CSU doesn't like the threat...but CIPS is honking nicely. 

[CAPE]

SPC AC 281926

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a few
   tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon through late Friday
   evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

   ...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
   Pattern amplification will occur Friday as one shortwave trough
   progresses from the Mid-South to the southeast Atlantic/Mid-Atlantic
   coast, in advance of another wave digging southward over the Great
   Lakes.  An associated surface cyclone will develop
   east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic late Friday and to the
   southern New England coast by Saturday morning, while a trailing
   cold front crosses the Gulf coast, north FL and the southeast
   Atlantic coast.  Within cloud breaks the warm sector will consist of
   afternoon temperatures near or above 80 F and boundary-layer
   dewpoints in the 60s, which will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg and
   minimal convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon.  Increasing
   midlevel flow with time and forcing for ascent along and just ahead
   of the front will support storm initiation with the potential for
   storm clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging
   winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.  If wave timing and
   thermodynamic profiles remain favorable, some portion of this area
   may warrant an upgrade in later updates.

[CAPE]

18z 3km NAM looks intriguing.

[Kmlwx]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z 3km NAM looks intriguing.

Sends a UH swath right through Charles County.....

[87storms]

18z 3km NAM looks intriguing.

It looks kind of “flood watch”-y

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

It looks kind of “flood watch”-y

Per WPC much of the region is marginal for excessive rainfall.

[MillvilleWx]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Per WPC much of the region is marginal for excessive rainfall.

Correct and I'll be taking a closer look at it tonight. NAM Nest is the most aggressive with the convective component of the forecast, but it's plausible it has the right idea. There will be a narrow corridor of heavy rainfall. Curious to see if it trends further on other guidance for the region. The update will be out overnight around 330-4AM, so check in tomorrow morning for the update. 

Also, last night shift for me tonight in the stretch. Stoked!

[high risk]

Based on the 00z CAMs, much of the area will have a flash flood risk Friday late afternoon through early Saturday, and at the least, areas along and south of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD will have severe potential early Friday evening.   The exact track of the surface low will determine the mesoscale corridors of threat, but a tornado or two certainly seems possible along the warm front.

[WxUSAF]

12z 3k NAM isn’t quite as much of an outlier as 6z, but still much farther south than hrrr or FV3 12z runs

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

12z 3k NAM isn’t quite as much of an outlier as 6z, but still much farther south than hrrr or FV3 12z runs

Check out the HRDPS.  Looks like a Derecho lol.

[Kmlwx]

I'm mostly ready to "meh" this in MBY. Seems like one of those days when south of the area gets hammered, though. 

[87storms]

I'm mostly ready to "meh" this in MBY. Seems like one of those days when south of the area gets hammered, though. 

18z nam is back to being anti-meh.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

18z nam is back to being anti-meh.

18z NAM NEST shows good amount of UDH swath just south of DC metro 

[Rhino16]

A lot of guidance has the classic gap that opens up just west of Richmond and continues to the coast. Not sure if that’s because of the rain the models want to send through early morning, or some other phenomenon, but it’s annoying to see instead of something to break up the cloudy days.

[87storms]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

18z NAM NEST shows good amount of UDH swath just south of DC metro 

The Euro shows a premium vort pass.

[snowfan]

Looks fun

 

[yoda]

00z NAM Nest looks interesting... granted the storms weaken by the time they get up here... but those look nasty in the SW parts of the LWX CWA 

[high risk]

30 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z NAM Nest looks interesting... granted the storms weaken by the time they get up here... but those look nasty in the SW parts of the LWX CWA 

      Yeah, forecast soundings along the warm front certainly support at least transient supercell structures.   The question is where the warm front will reside, as there isn't good model agreement.   If there is a weak consensus, it's for the warm front to set up just south of DC.   

      Saturday could be a hail threat throughout the area, as very cold temperatures aloft will be in place, and the secondary front looks to move through at a favorable time of day.

[yoda]

Was it supposed to be mostly sunny and mostly blue skies this morning?

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Was it supposed to be mostly sunny and mostly blue skies this morning?

On the CoD model page - many models showed decent clearing/sunshine this morning at least when I looked at them yesterday.