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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat


NorthHillsWx
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5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Look how far the Euro heaviest qpf has trended the last 3 runs. In NC, the 0.5” and 1” lines have shifted E/SE a whopping 100-150 miles! It is due to shift back west some at 0Z. Anyone want to make a prediction of what the 0Z will show?

0Z Euro

IMG_3051.thumb.png.7110112a085e9b0c4ba1ec68617504b4.png
 

18Z Euro

IMG_3050.thumb.png.329f2bbf64f007e641ccd7147a41bb68.png

The 0Z Euro went even further SE… significantly further! The 1” and 0.5” qpf lines have moved 200 miles E/SE vs the 0Z of 24 hours ago!IMG_3057.thumb.png.bfffe311adc1ca7bdc6760a24b9d58c5.png

New 0Z Euro Kuchera: RDU down to 4.9” (~1/2 the 18Z); DC down to 0.5” vs 16.7” 24 hours ago:

IMG_3060.thumb.png.577392cbe8ec1e32d5acccc54ef30c22.png

Old 0Z Euro Kuchera:IMG_3059.thumb.png.59efd01bbe311aaa2e87cbf17c6cb493.png

 

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This shouldn't surprise anyone. That's how it goes. Always temper your expectations no matter what the models show. Our friends in the Northeast experienced the exact same thing with this storm. and we down here..know that story all too well. 

With that said, lets see how the trends go tomorrow before the cliff diving begins.  This does seem like an extreme solution. and this is coming from an expert cliff diver:rolleyes:

 

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