Discussion-OBS slippery plowable moderate to high impact snowstorm with many delays near I95 and inland btwn 10AM Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. R/S line uncertain near and east of I95 - parts of LI may be limited snowfall of around 1"?

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I can’t bear the thought of it raining on LI make it stop 

I’m hopeful we get something but it’s a thread the needle situation where we need the S/W to track favorably and not be too amped. Areas just inland are favored for the best outcome but hopefully the less amped Euro has a clue here. We’re getting closer to the point though that RGEM doesn’t normally move much. 

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Still unchanged from my view of this being a rainstorm for coastal Monmouth/Ocean County + Eastern LI. 

Thinking the gradient line sets up along I-95/278/Belt Pkwy

You should still see a change to snow as the event unfolds as arctic air comes in

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It has been very consistent.

Thanks Don. I am excited about the AI being so consistent. Of course the event hasn't happened yet however if the event is closest to what the AI has been showing, then we may have a more accurate closer range model which is a big win.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I’m hopeful we get something but it’s a thread the needle situation where we need the S/W to track favorably and not be too amped. Areas just inland are favored for the best outcome but hopefully the less amped Euro has a clue here. We’re getting closer to the point though that RGEM doesn’t normally move much. 

Hopefully 0z represented the furthest west it will go, but yes it will need to tick east a bit more for coastal sections. Even the cmc was less amped than the rgem

[Nibor]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It has been very consistent.

What has its verification score been? I know early on it had some issues. 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I am excited about the AI being so consistent. Of course the event hasn't happened yet however if the event is closest to what the AI has been showing, then we may have a more accurate closer range model which is a big win.

I suspect that it may be another year or two before AI becomes decisively more skillful with its forecasts. Sooner would be better.

[ILoveWinter]

I think at this point 2-4 is a good call for the immediate metro with less as you go east. Even that would get me excited as it's been 2 years since a sort of moderate snowfall in the City.

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I think at this point 2-4 is a good call for the immediate metro with less as you go east. Even that would get me excited as it's been 2 years since a sort of moderate snowfall in the City.

if you don’t mind me asking, why are you going so low? I think this could be a 3 to 6 inch storm. Maybe more

[Nibor]

GFS has been trending closer to the coast. Lost the double barrel low at 6z. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I think at this point 2-4 is a good call for the immediate metro with less as you go east. Even that would get me excited as it's been 2 years since a sort of moderate snowfall in the City.

What did the city get in the storm last Feb, I think 2/13? I had 7” in that one. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

GFS has been trending closer to the coast. Lost the double barrel low at 6z. 

If the low goes SE of Montauk I would think we’d be ok-the arctic air should wrap in close to the low. It’s those solutions where it plops over LBI that we’d be in trouble. 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, Nibor said:

What has its verification score been? I know early on it had some issues. 

It’s done well at 500 mb, but not as well with specific synoptic events. I suspect it’s still a year or two away from doing better with such events (assuming that it’s still “learning” in real-time).

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

GFS has been trending closer to the coast. Lost the double barrel low at 6z. 

That's a big jump on the last frame. Really the standard Euro and eps are the biggest outlier. UKMET is a little better and closer to the coast from the European suite. 

[Snowlover11]

13 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I think at this point 2-4 is a good call for the immediate metro with less as you go east. Even that would get me excited as it's been 2 years since a sort of moderate snowfall in the City.

honestly the only model showing 2-4 is the euro, every other model doubles that minus the euro/nam

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

honestly the only model showing 2-4 is the euro, every other model doubles that minus the euro/nam

I’d feel pretty good about 6” west of the Tappan Zee and along I-287/I-87. 

[mob1]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d feel pretty good about 6” west of the Tappan Zee and along I-287/I-87. 

Yeah, this is quickly becoming an away from the coast event. Would suck here, but at least the ski resorts would get some love. 

 

 

[TJW014]

Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287

[the_other_guy]

this is not a rain storm guys.

 

Let’s not get ridiculous here

[EastonSN+]

Just now, TJW014 said:

Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287

Yeah I know I put too much stock in it, but forky yesterday saying it could easily be rain is still residing in my thoughts.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

this is not a rain storm guys.

 

Let’s not get ridiculous here

The reason there is trepidation is forky stated yesterday that this could easily be rain.

[tristateweatherFB]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Well out of range, HRRR has rain north of I-287

How far out does the hrrr go out? I thought only 48 hrs

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

this is not a rain storm guys.

 

Let’s not get ridiculous here

We're relying on good timing to be on the right side of the boundary, and very often these fronts slow down a bit as we get closer to the event. 

Rain (even a bit inland) is always a possibility. Hopefully we'll see some positive trends today. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

this is not a rain storm guys.

 

Let’s not get ridiculous here

Agree

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

How far out does the hrrr go out? I thought only 48 hrs

It has precip early Sunday morning which no other models have and before the cold air has arrived

[tristateweatherFB]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It has precip early Sunday morning which no other models have

Yes I see it but the way I read it sounding tucked in.  If precip

arrives early could be rain but also means more tucked

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

Yes I see it but the way I read it sounding tucked in.  If precip

arrives early could be rain but also means more tucked

I wouldn’t worry about anything the HRRR says. I’m not losing hope east of the city but we need these west trends to stop pronto. 

[MJO812]

Nam looks like it has the boundary further west than the past runs near the coast at hour 48

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

if you don’t mind me asking, why are you going so low? I think this could be a 3 to 6 inch storm. Maybe more

Certainly could be but I’d be more comfortable with 3-6 if things look that way tonight on most models. Also it’s for the immediate metro, it’s higher N&W with better ratios.

[the_other_guy]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The reason there is trepidation is forky stated yesterday that this could easily be rain.

look, you guys want Miller A’s and coastal storms. This is part of it.

 

there is a reason why New York City had such a low snowfall average before the real effects of climate change kicked in. to get a major storm in New York City you’re always on the edge of a rain snow line because of the warm Atlantic and the nature of the coastline.

 

you look at places like Raleigh or Atlanta and they get these periods of prolonged ice because cold air gets trapped in. It’s almost impossible to do in New York City. Off the top of my head I remember it in 1994 to kick off that brutal winter.

I also remember it on Valentine’s Day in 2007. 

We live in an area where it’s either going to snow or it’s going to rain and the difference is not that much.

 

this was masked in the 2000s and 2010s when the storms got so large because of climate change that they just pulled enough cold air in and you had Long Island getting 2-3 feet of snow. I grew up on Eastern Long Island, that isn’t normal…but if you hung around for that 15 year period you thought it was.

 

So basically ride the wave with this one and hope the West train stops.

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

What did the city get in the storm last Feb, I think 2/13? I had 7” in that one. 

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