As WAR expands, do our snow chances increase? First wave may produce a middling event-solid advisory and possible low end warning for MLK Weekend

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I still think double digits are going to be hard to come by. Someone might hit it, or slant it. But I could see a lot of 6 and 7 inch reports 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

Keep in mind this is about a 9 hour event.  6-8 is a legit ceiling for the majority of us.

Snows about 12-15 hours in total 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z HRRR kind of flaccid compared to 12z but still prob 4-8” for most. 

weaker and a bit SE....still think its outside its range

[weathafella]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Snows about 12-15 hours in total 

lol….ok but it doesn’t.  You’re done before midnight and me a few hours later.

[ariof]

Let's not get too carried away running towards the end zone here, Leon is still with us.

Last year's Valentine's debacle didn't really bust until 24h before the event start … which would be the 18Z suite.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z HRRR kind of flaccid compared to 12z but still prob 4-8” for most. 

it wasn't sure where to develop the low and had a couple centers for awhile..  one just off of NJ and one east which became that main show

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

lol….ok but it doesn’t.  You’re done before midnight and me a few hours later.

Starts here around 3:00 tomorrow and final flakes wrap up 3-4 AM

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Keep in mind this is about a 9 hour event.  6-8 is a legit ceiling for the majority of us.

Yea, gotta be careful with ratio's, though....they get high quickly during the event in spots.

 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Starts here around 3:00 tomorrow and final flakes wrap up 3-4 AM

Good luck.  I’ll take the earlier on the ending.

[OceanStWx]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think what we are seeing is merely a closing of the gap...don't forget the a$whooping the GFS just took last weekend.

Yea, if it does work out like this, then I am having a rough season in the medium range...no way to sugar coat it. The fast flow is wreaking havoc with guidance, and me.

My seasonal conceptualization looks pretty solid, though.

We have to keep in mind the regime we're in right now too. The Pacific jet is in retraction right now, which is more prone to unpredictability in the models. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, gotta be careful with ratio's, though....they get high quickly during the event in spots.

 

Whoever gets into an intense band can stack up.  But where will the best banding be?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Good luck.  I’ll take the earlier on the ending.

Mesos longer lighter stuff after midnight but nothing substantial 

[BRSno]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This would probably be bostons biggest storm since Jan 22 

No way! That’s wild. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Whoever gets into an intense band can stack up.  But where will the best banding be?

I feel pretty confident on that.

I'll probably have everything out later this evening.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mesos longer lighter stuff after midnight but nothing substantial 

The actual accumulating snow is prob about 6-8 hours. Yeah, a few weenie flakes may persist until 2-4am but that won’t change any totals. It’s a fast mover. Someone could stack quickly if they get into good banding with ratios but hard to forecast that for everyone. 
 

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The actual accumulating snow is prob about 6-8 hours. Yeah, a few weenie flakes may persist until 2-4am but that won’t change any totals. It’s a fast mover. Someone could stack quickly if they get into good banding with ratios but hard to forecast that for everyone. 
 

 

If you are being charitable about what accumulation is, the GFS is 9 hours at ORH. 90% of it is 5-6 hours.

[ineedsnow]

warnings up!!!! 

[wxsniss]

2 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Enough support for watches to be extended east at this point

Watches just extended to Suffolk, Norfolk counties for 4-8”

[Snowcrazed71]

Winter storm warnings now hoisted for Hartford and Tolland county Connecticut. They're saying 4 to 8 with some possible 10-inch amounts.

Edit.... Just flipped over Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, Northern Middlesex county to warnings as well. Immediate shoreline are all Winter Weather advisory

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

If you are being charitable about what accumulation is, the GFS is 9 hours at ORH. 90% of it is 5-6 hours.

PVD Bruins game at 3 tomorrow what time is go time 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

PVD Bruins game at 3 tomorrow what time is go time 

Ripping after 5 or so. 00z looks like the sweet spot for PVD.

[weathafella]

18z NAM seems to slow it down.  Brings it over the bowel movement 34-36 hours at 992 and widespread good snow.  Much better qpf field.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

18z NAM seems to slow it down.  Brings it over the bowel movement 34-36 hours at 992 and widespread good snow.  Much better qpf field.

Still a big difference between 12km and 3km

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

18z NAM seems to slow it down.  Brings it over the bowel movement 34-36 hours at 992 and widespread good snow.  Much better qpf field.

Lower QPF. Steady stuff is like a 4 hour band of moderate snow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

18z NAM seems to slow it down.  Brings it over the bowel movement 34-36 hours at 992 and widespread good snow.  Much better qpf field.

Would you say … maybe 12-15 hours?

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM wanted to chase that convection to the east but pulled back.. I bet that's what the Euro was doing before.. easy to see when looped on Tropical Tidbits

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is a wild trend from the EPS at this range

Running it back to 00z last night, the Euro definitely initialized too high with heights in the shortwave diving through the Rockies.

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Scooter is hoping and praying. 

I love the GFS ripping 4 inches in one hour for PYM as the band rips through.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would you say … maybe 12-15 hours?

Not close.  It’s later in same time out.

[weathafella]

Overall a meh solution on the NAM.  High end advisory low end warning snows.