TullyHeel Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Toss the NAM at your own risk 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Here’s the thing on the NAM. There’s absolutely nothing preventing this from cutting. We have no blocking high to the north to tuck it underneath. It amplifies the storm, spits out a stout ridge and WAA pushes our fragile cold dome out of the way. It finds the weakness and lifts. I’m not saying it’s right, but characterizing it as out to lunch when WAA has been an issue for days is something I wouldn’t advise. I agree it’s not likely but that’s how it arrived where it did. One of my rules I’ve always had living in the Lee - NEVER trust an in-situ wedge. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 looks more into line with the globals. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 17 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Toss the NAM at your own risk Been there, done that, failed. NAMs track record on these storms inside of 48 hours is usually solid. But when it is bucking guidance from the globals? I dunno..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Icon looking good . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Icon pretty much stayed the course from 18z. tw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Icon is fine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Canadian is fine for 85N 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 NAM aside, the most likely scenario is still on the table. A general 2-3 inches for 85N. Some spots in the mountains get 3-6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 WRAL showed the Euro tonight. They are looking at increasing their totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 RGEM not bad but its been ticking north over AL/GA with the WAA slug the last few runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Tony, You may not remember this but the great 4” Atlanta sleetstorm of 2/18/79 was originally supposed to have much more snow. The snow lasted only for a short time at the start (not much more than an hour, if even that) in the evening before changing to sleet much earlier than expected and lasting for the rest (nearly 24 hours)! Snow remained further to the north. This late became the President’s Day snowstorm in the NE US. That was my second favorite storm ever. Best sledding storm by far. I had a VW with a studded snow tire on the drive wheel, and we could go anywhere. Up any hill, so we sledded all over town, but ended up on Amsterdam where we went from the top, over the cross road at the bottom then down to devil's dive, an even steeper hill, but not very long... so it was a good two block run, down between cars parked on both sides. 2am and loving it. Riding tandem so probably doing close to 30.... face down inches from the ice, blinded by tears, steering by instinct...and lived thru it, lol. I was living by Lenox Square at the time and could watch it come down with Davison's all lit up under floods, and it was snow for maybe half an hour and I was chanting the whole time...sleet, sleet, sleet....I've taken credit for that storm via the force of my mantra I've a steep hill on a county road down here, but not near as long as Amsterdam in midtown. Amsterdam had cars on both sides, and the county road has a bridge abutment, so you have to go straight. Danger adds spice when you 30, but is totally insane at 77. I have to slide sitting up now, as if I lie down on the sled, that's probably where they'll find me frozen the next day, lol. 28 degrees now and just waiting... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 GFS looks pretty similar to 18Z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 10 minutes ago, dsaur said: That was my second favorite storm ever. Best sledding storm by far. I had a VW with a studded snow tire on the drive wheel, and we could go anywhere. Up any hill, so we sledded all over town, but ended up on Amsterdam where we went from the top, over the cross road at the bottom then down to devil's dive, an even steeper hill, but not very long... so it was a good two block run, down between cars parked on both sides. 2am and loving it. Riding tandem so probably doing close to 30.... face down inches from the ice, blinded by tears, steering by instinct...and lived thru it, lol. I was living by Lenox Square at the time and could watch it come down with Davison's all lit up under floods, and it was snow for maybe half an hour and I was chanting the whole time...sleet, sleet, sleet....I've taken credit for that storm via the force of my mantra I've a steep hill on a county road down here, but not near as long as Amsterdam in midtown. Amsterdam had cars on both sides, and the county road has a bridge abutment, so you have to go straight. Danger adds spice when you 30, but is totally insane at 77. I have to slide sitting up now, as if I lie down on the sled, that's probably where they'll find me frozen the next day, lol. 28 degrees now and just waiting... This reads like poetry. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Solid GFS run for 40 North 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Baring some miracle SE trend, looks as if us 95ers are out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Baring some miracle SE trend, looks as if us 95ers are out of the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 RGEM makes the Triad horny 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 One thing that’s been remarkable about the GFS is how much the OP has bucked its own ensembles. Even tonight back at 18z, the OP is just south of Macon GA (60 hrs) while almost all GEFS members are just west of Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Eric Webb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Yeah I saw that, but the 18z juiced the storm up bit and as a result it's warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: RGEM makes the Triad horny American WX (after dark) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 The 0z CMC increased totals in southern VA and central and Northern NC. Showing 3-5" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 DT Wxrisk: 8 PM WED EVENING MODELS - NWS INCREASES SNOW AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT/ SAT AM ACROSS SOUTHERN VA the 18z European Ensemble (EPS) has come out and it shows a somewhat interesting increase in the precipitation amounts with the system for Friday night and Saturday. Richmond has gone from 0.13” on the 12z EPS to 0.24; Raleigh from 0.21 to 0,34 Norfolk 0.17 ro 0.31 Salisbury 0.14 to 0.24 DC from 0.10 to 0.24 Cville from 0.05 to 0.12 Roanoke 0.15 to 0.22 The 18z Operational or regular GFS also showed a slight increase in the moisture output for this system compared to the previous run 12z Richmond has gone from 0.36” on the 12z GEFS to 0.44; Raleigh from 0.30 to 0.34 Norfolk 0.40 to 0.51 Salisbury Maryland 0.47 to 0.54 DC from 0.20 to 0.17 Cville from 0.16 to 0.14 Roanoke 0.42 to 0.43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 This thread has been a hoot the last 6 hours or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Wording from FFC remains the same on the Winter Storm Watch from the afternoon synopsis. 418 WWUS42 KFFC 090412 WSWFFC URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1112 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>060-091400- /O.CON.KFFC.WS.A.0001.250110T1200Z-250111T1200Z/ Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns- Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow- Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb- North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes- Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton- Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton- Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam- Including the cities of Madison, Commerce, Blairsville, Jackson, Trenton, Blue Ridge, Cumming, Calhoun, Winder, Bremen, Douglasville, Crawford, Woodstock, Carrollton, Peachtree City, Watkinsville, Dahlonega, Greensboro, Ellijay, Washington, Griffin, Stockbridge, Covington, Hiawassee, Lawrenceville, Eatonton, Gainesville, Decatur, Monroe, Riverdale, Rome, Jasper, Homer, Dallas, Monticello, Marietta, Cleveland, East Point, LaFayette, Newnan, Fort Oglethorpe, Comer, Atlanta, Athens, Conyers, Dalton, Crawfordville, Chatsworth, Franklin, Summerville, Cedartown, Cartersville, and Dawsonville 1112 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain that could be heavy at times. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 3-6 in northern Georgia and 1-3 inches in metro Atlanta and points east. Ice accumulations around a tenth to two tenths of an inch are possible in metro Atlanta and points east. * WHERE...Much of north Georgia. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions, with travel likely becoming difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday commute and linger into Saturday morning. Bridges and overpasses could become icy even if temperatures remain slightly above freezing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this hazardous situation. Any slight deviations in temperatures or track of the weather system will result in changes for the precipitation type forecast. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 27 minutes ago, QC_Halo said: This thread has been a hoot the last 6 hours or so. I’m just glad it put me out of my misery now instead of showing me getting 6+ inches and ending up with only an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 WxBloodsworth 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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