2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Seminole]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

September 20 Euro and GFS runs: no tropical development through October 6. lol at all the people saying the lid was gonna come off in the second half of September and early October. After Gabrielle that MDR is closed for the season, could still see a Caribbean/Gulf storm in October but this season will be a massive forecast bust.

Running out of time. Here in north Florida it has been very dry and less humid compared to September last year. Feels more like October than September. If nothing happens in the next couple of weeks it is probably time to turn the page on this season.

 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Another season where many forecasters had the east coast above average chance with alot of storms.  Just like winter outlooks, take the tropical outlooks with a grain of salt or maybe not do outlooks way far in advance. 

I’m wondering if the generally far better tropical forecasts have now fallen victim to the winter storms micro management that just does  not work  

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Good. The lack of casualties, misery, and destruction so far is a great thing! We’ve had enough of this crap. But unfortunately Oct has produced really bad storms, especially in recent years. So, the jury is still far from coming back with a full verdict for the season.

 Although the chances are now pretty low, we still don’t know for sure that ACE won’t get to near the 30 yr 122 avg especially based on 2024, 2020, 2016, and 2005, but also on 1894, 1893, and 1878. However, all of these very active Oct+ years were more active through Sept though 2016 and 1894 not that much.

Homegrown storms will be the thing moving forward. The Atlantic basin should be closing shop soon.

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Homegrown storms will be the thing moving forward. The Atlantic basin should be closing shop soon.

Regarding TCs that hit Conus, the latest TCG date on record E of 50W is Sep 25 (1893).