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This could be the first spring that one of our stations like Newark recorded at least a trace of rain on every spring weekend. 
 

Newark 

May 25-25…..T

May 18-19…..0.04

May 11-12…0.38

May 4-5…..0.31

Apr 27-28…0.11

Apr 20-21…0.05

Apr 13-14…0.04

Apr 6-7…….T

Mar 30-31…0.01

Mar 23-24….3.10

Mar 16-17…..T

Mar 9-10….1.46

Mar 2-3…..1.31

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Yeah tomorrow not looking quite as impressive as it did a few days ago, but there will still be some t-storms and heavy downpours around. Probably will be some spots that get 1 to 2 inches of rain. 

That looks like quite an airmass coming in for late week to close out the month. Dewpoints might fall to the 30s. We're gonna have some cool nights. 

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Some localized 2”+ amounts possible tomorrow to the north and west of NYC on the SPC HREF mean. The max is more robust. But it’s always uncertain if we can reach the max totals. So sometimes we end up with amounts in between. 
 

50D15FA4-976E-46FC-9E35-2B90EC6CF4A0.thumb.jpeg.17f52feb5bd41ac01102658930efe4ad.jpeg
 

B11C16BF-6842-4466-9F71-D5A7915CE68F.thumb.jpeg.783e30a83c1d941db422a44f7ffc3645.jpeg

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3 hours ago, Cfa said:

Every time I hear the Blue Angels I think it’s thunder. I’m pretty far away from ISP, I’m surprised I can hear them.

79 here, had a brief shower this morning that has now evaporated.

Wasn’t the blue angles, they were half way through the show (they are at the end) and they had cancel the show. A ridiculously thick fog bank rolled in off the ocean. It’s still so foggy here at jones beach we have the water closed as we can’t see the water from the life guard stand. And speaking of the water it’s incredibly warm for this early in the season. A couple sunny warm days and light winds and it’s in the mid 60s

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Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow, even as there could be some sunshine. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Following the rainfall, Tuesday will likely see the mercury rise into the lower 80s. Cooler air will arrive to end the work week.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +9.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.554 today.

On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.671 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.719 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.1° (1.9° above normal).

 

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