CoastalWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: That's fine away from the city Temps are temps whether it’s over a building or a maple tree. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: In the DGZ? or at the surface? There's no such thing as 33-34F in the DGZ.....gotta be more like -10C to get ice crystals, though as we've talked about before, in New England we can often get away with something like -6C or -7C because of all the salt nuclei in the air here being surrounded by the Atlantic on two sides and onshore flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: In the DGZ? or at the surface? Surface. I think it gets below freezing once you get near MHT and above 500’. You’ll probably fall below 32 as well. If you can slap the DGZ with big VV’s, then even northeast mass can wetbulb to 32. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, CoastalWx said: Surface. I think it gets below freezing once you get near MHT and above 500’. You’ll probably fall below 32 as well. If you can slap the DGZ with big VV’s, then even northeast mass and wetbulb to 32. Shows ORH hills sub-freezing at the sfc after midnight tomorrow night through Thu morning. Pretty good lapse rates from Sfc to 850ish, so any heavy precip is gonna prob get even lower elevations close to freezing from latent cooling....esp if we can replace the sleet with more snow, then latent cooling is even more efficient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 12z NAM kinda reminds me of the 06z Euro for the Rt. 2 north region. Pellets til 06z or so Thursday morning, then some slushy snow, then it gets slotty later Thursday morning into the afternoon and that'll kill any accums. Going to need to lose the sleet if we want a better chance of advisory snows overnight in this area because anything after 12-14z or so Thursday is pointless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Legro at work with a trimmer in hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, DomNH said: 12z NAM kinda reminds me of the 06z Euro for the Rt. 2 north region. Pellets til 06z or so Tuesday morning, then some slushy snow, then it gets slotty later Thursday morning into the afternoon and that'll kill any accums. Going to need to lose the sleet if we want a better chance of advisory snows overnight in this area because anything after 12-14z or so Thursday is pointless. I think it can accumulate during the day ok with these soundings....but the key is keeping H6-7 saturated and getting decent rates. If it goes slotty with light rates, then it won't matter. But if you're going moderate to heavy snow at noontime with 850 temps in the -9C range and 925s in the -4C range, it's pretty hard to not accumulate. But the key is not slotting aloft....we want to keep that H7 WF to the south of us. Those 0.15 to 0.2" QPF in 3 hours won't cut it...need over 0.25" every 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's fine away from the city The bigger issue at least for my area is the warm layer at around 700mb. That’s a big reason why the NAM 10:1 clown is giving me nearly a foot and accumulated snow depth is only giving me an inch or 2. Accumulated depth is the way to go outside of elevations and south of maybe southern VT/NH, since it’s more of a sleet setup than a snow setup. I’m thinking an inch or 2 here with mostly sleet for now, need that low to bump another 25 or so miles SE and strengthen (which is a long shot) to get more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's fine away from the city You know, we have physics in the burbs.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Wow.Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Shows ORH hills sub-freezing at the sfc after midnight tomorrow night through Thu morning. Pretty good lapse rates from Sfc to 850ish, so any heavy precip is gonna prob get even lower elevations close to freezing from latent cooling....esp if we can replace the sleet with more snow, then latent cooling is even more efficient. Yep, it's cold 925-850. Should be good with a little elevation at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, Prismshine Productions said: Wow. Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Clown map aside, what a brutal gradient lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If you can slap my face with big DD’s, then Allison waves buh-bye and I move to northeast mass with Ray. Sorry, no space....get a grip 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think it can accumulate during the day ok with these soundings....but the key is keeping H6-7 saturated and getting decent rates. If it goes slotty with light rates, then it won't matter. But if you're going moderate to heavy snow at noontime with 850 temps in the -9C range and 925s in the -4C range, it's pretty hard to not accumulate. But the key is not slotting aloft....we want to keep that H7 WF to the south of us. Those 0.15 to 0.2" QPF in 3 hours won't cut it...need over 0.25" every 3 hours. Yeah I agree. I haven't looked at the NAM soundings yet but the 06z GFS soundings here were kind of sh*t in that regard. DGZ was bone dry throughout then H7-H8 dried out pretty quickly after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Clown map aside, what a brutal gradient lol.Since when was Kuchie in spring a clown map? 6:1 is more likely than 10:1Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 9 minutes ago, DomNH said: 12z NAM kinda reminds me of the 06z Euro for the Rt. 2 north region. Pellets til 06z or so Thursday morning, then some slushy snow, then it gets slotty later Thursday morning into the afternoon and that'll kill any accums. Going to need to lose the sleet if we want a better chance of advisory snows overnight in this area because anything after 12-14z or so Thursday is pointless. Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 NAM now looks like everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joeshattrick Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Again they are still saying no snow at border. But maps show 14”. lol lol . Why are they not budging? And if models show snow , what makes them say no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Clown map aside, what a brutal gradient lol. Yeah it can stay where it is. I can stomach being 50 miles from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, Joeshattrick said: Again they are still saying no snow at border. But maps show 14”. lol lol . Why are they not budging? And if models show snow , what makes them say no? There's a ton of sleet initially up in the border region so it's still a huge question of when that can flip to snow. It's plausible it ends up as mostly sleet and then some nuisance snow after that. IF we cool it one more tick, then I think it's gung ho near MA/NH border, but there's reason to stay cautious at the moment. I do think it won't be zero snow....there will likely at least be a few inches of crud at minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. You're def in a "great" spot. I have a flight out of MHT later Thursday afternoon so I'm rooting for the slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 No matter what trends happen one thing remains consistent.. CT into RI and SE Mass are rain . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. God, my latitude is right on the razor's edge....plenty of instances where it has killed me as Scooter and Will frolicked in knee deep snow....just once I would like the inverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seems reasonable in my area. A lot is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: No matter what trends happen one thing remains consistent.. CT into RI and SE Mass are rain . Yep. That was determined on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, my latitude is right on the razor's edge....plenty of instances where it has killed me as Scooter and Will frolicked in knee deep snow....just once I would like the inverse. You had one this year already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That’s sort of the outcome I’m expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Seems reasonable in my area. A lot is sleet ready for 2"-4" of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Man...NAM Kutchie is 17.8" here. But...not.....doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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