Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

In the DGZ? or at the surface?

There's no such thing as 33-34F in the DGZ.....gotta be more like -10C to get ice crystals, though as we've talked about before, in New England we can often get away with something like -6C or -7C because of all the salt nuclei in the air here being surrounded by the Atlantic on two sides and onshore flow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

In the DGZ? or at the surface?

Surface. I think it gets below freezing once you get near MHT and above 500’. You’ll probably fall below 32 as well.  If you can slap the DGZ with big VV’s, then even northeast mass can wetbulb to 32.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Surface. I think it gets below freezing once you get near MHT and above 500’. You’ll probably fall below 32 as well.  If you can slap the DGZ with big VV’s, then even northeast mass and wetbulb to 32.

Shows ORH hills sub-freezing at the sfc after midnight tomorrow night through Thu morning. Pretty good lapse rates from Sfc to 850ish, so any heavy precip is gonna prob get even lower elevations close to freezing from latent cooling....esp if we can replace the sleet with more snow, then latent cooling is even more efficient.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM kinda reminds me of the 06z Euro for the Rt. 2 north region. Pellets til 06z or so Thursday morning, then some slushy snow, then it gets slotty later Thursday morning into the afternoon and that'll kill any accums. Going to need to lose the sleet if we want a better chance of advisory snows overnight in this area because anything after 12-14z or so Thursday is pointless. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, DomNH said:

12z NAM kinda reminds me of the 06z Euro for the Rt. 2 north region. Pellets til 06z or so Tuesday morning, then some slushy snow, then it gets slotty later Thursday morning into the afternoon and that'll kill any accums. Going to need to lose the sleet if we want a better chance of advisory snows overnight in this area because anything after 12-14z or so Thursday is pointless. 

I think it can accumulate during the day ok with these soundings....but the key is keeping H6-7 saturated and getting decent rates. If it goes slotty with light rates, then it won't matter. But if you're going moderate to heavy snow at noontime with 850 temps in the -9C range and 925s in the -4C range, it's pretty hard to not accumulate. But the key is not slotting aloft....we want to keep that H7 WF to the south of us. 

Those 0.15 to 0.2" QPF in 3 hours won't cut it...need over 0.25" every 3 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's fine away from the city

The bigger issue at least for my area is the warm layer at around 700mb. That’s a big reason why the NAM 10:1 clown is giving me nearly a foot and accumulated snow depth is only giving me an inch or 2. Accumulated depth is the way to go outside of elevations and south of maybe southern VT/NH, since it’s more of a sleet setup than a snow setup. I’m thinking an inch or 2 here with mostly sleet for now, need that low to bump another 25 or so miles SE and strengthen (which is a long shot) to get more than that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Shows ORH hills sub-freezing at the sfc after midnight tomorrow night through Thu morning. Pretty good lapse rates from Sfc to 850ish, so any heavy precip is gonna prob get even lower elevations close to freezing from latent cooling....esp if we can replace the sleet with more snow, then latent cooling is even more efficient.

Yep, it's cold 925-850. Should be good with a little elevation at the very least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it can accumulate during the day ok with these soundings....but the key is keeping H6-7 saturated and getting decent rates. If it goes slotty with light rates, then it won't matter. But if you're going moderate to heavy snow at noontime with 850 temps in the -9C range and 925s in the -4C range, it's pretty hard to not accumulate. But the key is not slotting aloft....we want to keep that H7 WF to the south of us. 

Those 0.15 to 0.2" QPF in 3 hours won't cut it...need over 0.25" every 3 hours.

Yeah I agree. I haven't looked at the NAM soundings yet but the 06z GFS soundings here were kind of sh*t in that regard. DGZ was bone dry throughout then H7-H8 dried out pretty quickly after 12z. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, DomNH said:

12z NAM kinda reminds me of the 06z Euro for the Rt. 2 north region. Pellets til 06z or so Thursday morning, then some slushy snow, then it gets slotty later Thursday morning into the afternoon and that'll kill any accums. Going to need to lose the sleet if we want a better chance of advisory snows overnight in this area because anything after 12-14z or so Thursday is pointless. 

Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Joeshattrick said:

Again they are still saying no snow at border. But maps show 14”. lol lol . Why are they not budging? And if models show snow , what makes them say no?

There's a ton of sleet initially up in the border region so it's still a huge question of when that can flip to snow. It's plausible it ends up as mostly sleet and then some nuisance snow after that. IF we cool it one more tick, then I think it's gung ho near MA/NH border, but there's reason to stay cautious at the moment. I do think it won't be zero snow....there will likely at least be a few inches of crud at minimum.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. 

You're def in a "great" spot. I have a flight out of MHT later Thursday afternoon so I'm rooting for the slot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cloud tops still look cold enough even when the nam pulls a little dry air into s nh at h7. Just need to get the forcing to overcome your 2m temps. I should be ok up here. 

God, my latitude is right on the razor's edge....plenty of instances where it has killed me as Scooter and Will frolicked in knee deep snow....just once I would like the inverse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

God, my latitude is right on the razor's edge....plenty of instances where it has killed me as Scooter and Will frolicked in knee deep snow....just once I would like the inverse.

You had one this year already. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...