April 2024

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Agreed...we've had cutoff lows into June with misery for 3-5 days

And there's always another wildfire smoke risk

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Don’t underestimate this extended fall with 10 days of winter’s ability to find new ways to keep us suffering. 

Yeah, the models now have this as one of the deepest cutoff lows on record for this time of year. So it’s no surprise the models have more clouds, rain, and onshore flow going forward than just a few days ago. The only way we have avoided record warmth in recent years has been these record wet patterns with plenty of onshore flow.
 

 

 

[Rtd208]

Flood Watch issued here from Wednesday morning thru Thursday afternoon for 1-3" of rain expected.

[MJO812]

Heavy rain

46 here

[MANDA]

Still moderate to heavy rain here.

 

[Allsnow]

KDIX radar down until Wednesday 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

KDIX radar down until Wednesday 

What a shame we can’t use it to track the rain/snow line in this one. It’ll be a nail biter! 

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

KDIX radar down until Wednesday 

with the amount of repairs and maintenance they've done the whole thing should be close to brand new by now lol

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Tomorrow looks like the worst weather day until next fall. Low 40s, wind and rain. Then we step up and out into spring 

I dont know man, today is pretty bad too.

and I just sneezed 11 times in a row (I counted lol)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Moderate to heavy rain here currently and 42 degrees.  Pretty nasty out. 

 

Feels like being in Nova Scotia

[forkyfork]

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Marquette 

Forget Marquette, move to Aomori and learn Japanese!

You'll do it for the 26 feet of snow they get every year.

[TJW014]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

KDIX radar down until Wednesday 

Right on cue. KDIX lately always happens to be down whenever it really is needed. 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

with the amount of repairs and maintenance they've done the whole thing should be close to brand new by now lol

 

 

Always before a big event 

[nycsnow]

High wind watch up 

[nycsnow]

Impressive winds on models really ramping up the gust ceiling last few runs 

[Dark Star]

As of 4 PM, the Mets game is still on for a 7:05PM start.

[jm1220]

Coastal flood warnings up-mod to major flooding expected on the South Shore bays and waves up to 10 feet. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

As of 4 PM, the Mets game is still on for a 7:05PM start.

imagine sitting through that in sheet drizzle and 44 degrees

[nycwinter]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

you sound like such a cheerful person

thank you

[Dan76]

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

imagine sitting through that in sheet drizzle and 44 degrees

can't Imagine sitting through that in 80 degrees and full sun.

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

High wind watch up 

Got are storm warning too.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

As of 4 PM, the Mets game is still on for a 7:05PM start.

If you are younger than 40, you will watch baseball die off like horseracing did 50 years ago. In both cases, the milking of fans and disinterest of younger generations will play a role.

[Allsnow]

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

If you are younger than 40, you will watch baseball die off like horseracing did 50 years ago. In both cases, the milking of fans and disinterest of younger generations will play a role.

MLB did it to themselves.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

are the models becoming worse now for the same reason they were bad all winter?

 

It’s just difficult for the models when we start getting such strong Greenland blocks and cutoff lows. While the -NAO will quickly rebound, the blocking will transfer to Hudson Bay. So the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge will transition to an omega blocking pattern. This makes specific forecasts beyond 120 hrs even lower skill than they typically are. So clouds, rain, and onshore flow will continue to be a factor going forward. I know many don’t like all the record warmth of recent years. But the only times we catch a break from all the warmth is when it gets very wet and cloudy with a persistent onshore flow. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s just difficult for the models when we start getting such strong Greenland blocks and cutoff lows. While the -NAO will quickly rebound, the blocking will transfer to Hudson Bay. So the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge will transition to an omega blocking pattern. This makes specific forecasts beyond 120 hrs even lower skill than they typically are. So clouds, rain, and onshore flow will continue to be a factor going forward. I know many don’t like all the record warmth of recent years. But the only times we catch a break from all the warmth is when it gets very wet and cloudy with a persistent onshore flow. 

But if you go by the numbers we had hotter years (more 90 degree days) back in the 90s-- certainly more record number of 90 degree day summers.  I guess record warmth is more about the mins now, all the excessive rainfall is blunting record highs now.

All this excessive rainfall is worse than record heat, flooding kills more people than heat does, and also results in the spread of disease (via mosquitoes) and results in the buildup of toxic mold and higher rates of allergies.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow through Thursday will see periods of moderate to heavy  rain with highs in the 40s. A storm total 1"-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely through Thursday.

Coastal flooding at times of high tide is likely. Central and upstate New York and central and northern New England could see accumulating snow, especially in higher elevations and away from the coastline.

After a cool first week of April, it will likely turn noticeably warmer during the second week of the month.

It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.27°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -10.53 on April 1.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.970 today.

 

[jm1220]

Already about 0.9” from this at JFK. I suspect a good chunk of us will get 3” total by this time tomorrow or so. Our rainforest-ation continues. 

[MJO812]

Wow 26-39 inches for Marquette