Snowstorms Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Early lead candidate for me is 1998-1999, which woud actually be a notable improvement over this past monstrosity. At this point, anything will be better than this winter's monstrosity. I'd take a repeat of 98-99. Biggest problem for me is that it was a warm winter too and I'm sick of these constant warm winters. But we had that blizzard in January 1999 that dumped 16-20" in Toronto and cued one of the snowiest 2 week periods ever in Toronto for a total of 46" in just 14 days. Kind of similar to Feb 2015 for you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 It can hardly be worse. Worse could be less snow and cold sure - but maybe more mild days to open the windows and go for a walk in a t shirt. It could only worse to a point, and then some positives develop with warmth. Lets see if we can mean revert a bit and get a normal winter in 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have had some good years. Its one of those things that you just need to accept something short of mastery. Eh my comment was less about your forecasts and more about our 6 straight below normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here are the Modoki La Nina seasons that were preceded by active ACE years. Maybe we will manage a bit more snowfall next year, assuming a high ACE (can it be less?), but should still be mild. Possibly a bit cooler with the warmth centered to the south, as opposed to north...like this past year. But the winter will probably be better out west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I wonder if LR forecasting is where AI will be most useful....essentially the supreme analogue sorting machine.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: YIKES, that would be horrible. Hopefully the La Niña is more east based than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 Just now, George001 said: YIKES, that would be horrible. Hopefully the La Niña is more east based than that. I'm not optimistic, but it will probably not be any worse than this past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not optimistic, but it will probably not be any worse than this past year. Eight months away or so, shit maybe the Sox will win the world series! Who knows, maybe things will change for the better long range months from now, I still say we need a few canes to stir this shit around be here or the Pacific IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 18 minutes ago, 512high said: Eight months away or so, shit maybe the Sox will win the world series! Who knows, maybe things will change for the better long range months from now, I still say we need a few canes to stir this shit around be here or the Pacific IDK Better shot of a 2010-2011 redux- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/5/2024 at 8:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Early lead candidate for me is 1998-1999, which woud actually be a notable improvement over this past monstrosity. I have zero knowledge of that winter. I graduated boot camp Dec 18th, took leave so I was home for Christmas, then went to Camp Lejeune for MCT and then finished off that winter in 29 Palms. I do remember the final few days of MCT a massive cold front went through and everything froze up. Living out in the field was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 98-99 was sort of a Cape winter. Well...relatively speaking. They had the big 18-24" snow in Feb '99. That was also the year of the Christmas eve-eve snow in SE MA. And I'm sure Ray has this PPT saved on his laptop.....the big OES event for the S shore. Boing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 On 3/15/2024 at 10:44 AM, CoastalWx said: 98-99 was sort of a Cape winter. Well...relatively speaking. They had the big 18-24" snow in Feb '99. That was also the year of the Christmas eve-eve snow in SE MA. And I'm sure Ray has this PPT saved on his laptop.....the big OES event for the S shore. Boing! I think most would sign for that winter right now given the shit we have been force-fed of late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/climate/ocean-heat-record-year-climate-intl/index.html ...granted, it's CNN - so always side eye source. However, if the scalars are right, they're right. That said ( supposing that to be so) eventually this factor will overwhelm everyone's season forecast efforts and I suggest that already in partiality it has been "whelming" LOL more and more so over the last decade (probably longer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/climate/ocean-heat-record-year-climate-intl/index.html ...granted, it's CNN - so always side eye source. However, if the scalars are right, they're right, and it is what it is. That said ( supposing that to be so) eventually, this factor will overwhelm everyone's season forecast efforts and I suggest that already in partiality it has been "whelming" LOL more and more so over the last decade (probably longer) I agree in an absolute sense....ie biased warmer everywhere. However, where I think the debate is more fervent is with respect to why the eastern CONUS has been getting boned so much more than the west. I am not sold on that imbalance being entirely a product of CC, whereas the general background warming is. I still believe the imblanace is more of a cyclical phenomenon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree in an absolute sense....ie biased warmer everywhere. However, where I think the debate is more fervent is with respect to why the eastern CONUS has been getting boned so much more than the west. I am not sold on that imbalance being entirely a product of CC, whereas the general background warming is. I still believe the imblanace is more of a cyclical phenomenon. Yeah... I'm saying the influence of a "warm ocean world" is influencing - or should be considered if that hasn't already begun. But that just means influencing. As far as parsing out specifically who gets/got what and where ... that's probably something metaphysical haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Onto winter of 25/26… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 The warm oceans certainly make analogs from colder periods almost useless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 15 hours ago, Brian5671 said: The warm oceans certainly make analogs from colder periods almost useless It defitely requires an adjustment that I have struggled to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 15 hours ago, Brian5671 said: The warm oceans certainly make analogs from colder periods almost useless It’s not useless, but I do think we are seeing patterns that don’t quite fit the previous analogs. But to be honest, it can be chaos too. We don’t have the best sample size yet for ENSO events, so one can expect some results that deviate from previous years likely due to chaos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 On 3/19/2024 at 8:24 AM, CoastalWx said: It’s not useless, but I do think we are seeing patterns that don’t quite fit the previous analogs. But to be honest, it can be chaos too. We don’t have the best sample size yet for ENSO events, so one can expect some results that deviate from previous years likely due to chaos. Yeeeah... it's any analog method. They're all suspect when the climate's changing. That's should be presumptive, really. Doesn't seem to be, though, certainly not enough. I don't know why ... well, I do know why - it's because in the heart of hearts, and projection effort fails in varying form and function to objectively consider that - whether that is just native capacity or subjectivity, or just needing to learn. I dunno. Maybe it isn't presumptive but to me, "old paradigm no longer beget new paradigm" is kind of a duh thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 8 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Raindancewx whose been on a roll actually sounds more optimistic for 24/25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 8 times Great. More AK troughs. Midwest and interior NE winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 On 3/18/2024 at 4:10 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Onto winter of 25/26… Like I said even before the start of this horrible non winter, I’ll take my chances with a strong nina over a strong or super nino any day. Strong nina is far from a death sentence in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 On 3/23/2024 at 10:02 AM, SnoSki14 said: Raindancewx whose been on a roll actually sounds more optimistic for 24/25 Well, everyone is by default....it won't get any worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 14 hours ago, George001 said: Like I said even before the start of this horrible non winter, I’ll take my chances with a strong nina over a strong or super nino any day. Strong nina is far from a death sentence in New England. This season would have suucked regardless of ENSO....it wasn't El Nino that pinned the forcing in the MC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 CSU forecasting ACE of 210 in their first forecast @40/70 Benchmark 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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