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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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Perfect setup for the skiers in the Mtns. Deep base with foot plus of upslope. Goggle tans and beers flowing midweek with deep Bluebird days. Man I miss my March adventures.  Took until my 40s until I realized spring mid week was my stoke. After the couple of warm sunny days a return to winter conditions the 16th on. 

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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Southeast Adirondacks getting the upslope cooling from forced parcel ascent in the marginal & lowest few thousand vertical feet.  Same with eastern VT hills and Spine during the SE flow phase.

It’s like the tide coming in on SE flow, then the tide going out on NW flow. Some zones do better on each specific flow/tide, others can hit on both.  Thats the forecasting challenge.

MRG forecast  from Pete wow 

 

Snow consistency appears pretty wet below 3000 feet during the first part of this event. There is a substantial column of boundary level air indicated to be in the 28-33 degree range on model cross sections through midday Sunday. Keep in mind that heavy wet thump snow can both make travel conditions very treacherous and cause power outages, especially when combined with wind.  Conditions begin to change late Sunday as colder air begins to settle across the high country as the flow becomes northwesterly. This is ultimately what will separate this storm from the pack this year as the setup appears outstanding for a continuation of colder snow across the mountains Sunday evening, night and Monday. The flow looks great and the storm will be slow enough to depart to allow lingering moisture to just hammer the northern Greens with continuous cold snow. Here are my expectations on snow totals period by period. Please keep in mind that this is a very elevation sensitive event and if you're reading from the Champlain Valley, your outcome will be very different and considerably less snowy than the one forecasted for the mountains. 

Saturday Night: Mixed precip changing to snow - thump potential toward dawn. 6-12 inches mostly wet snow 

Sunday Day: Heavy snow early, possible lull midday or afternoon. 3-6 inches mostly wet snow 

Sunday Night: Snow occasionally heavy. 6-12 inches of powder 

Monday: Snow or snow showers. Another 6-12 inches ! 

Total storm accumulations by Monday evening: 21-42 inches 

 

 

 
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8 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:

Most of the snow will be occurring at night so that will help with accumulations. 
 

This is probably a more realistic map.

 

 

 

 

IMG_4774.jpeg

No, shows over a foot down to the Lake.  I think you want to be 1500 feet plus for this one

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kev I understand your want but man if there ever was a bad model read of yours this is it . 5 day temp departures in Celsius.  

index (14).png

Mid to late next week is looking warmer on guidance down there. No need to go out to d10-15.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mid to late next week is looking warmer on guidance down there. No need to go out to d10-15.

 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let him go . It’s useless 

Except you said never ending spring. We all knew Thursday and Friday were warm. As we said over and over and over the pattern changes after the 16th. You enjoy this week but ... 

download (5).png

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nothing changed not any warmer than has been forecast. Enjoy your snow tonight tomorrow 

Won’t be much here and it has gotten warmer on guidance for late week…less marine taint. It’ll cool down beyond that, but we’ll revisit in a week to see just how much. A few days of NW flow with no pack or frost with a little BN 850s won’t result in that much cold east of the hills.

I actually hope we get closer to normal because I have a lot of buds swelling and ready to open on my chestnuts.

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3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

It's fine to show LR anomalies, but I'd rather the overall trends as we move forward.  I'd wager the "cold" shot(s)  will tend moderate a bit as we get closer.

That’s what has happened all winter. It happened with the Dec cold shot which vanished.. Jan cold shot ended up normal and the vaunted epic Feb ended up one week and really was normal averaged out . Same thing in Morch coming except higher sun angle and a torched , snowless Canada, ice free Great Lakes. Do the math …. Whale em up 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Perfect setup for the skiers in the Mtns. Deep base with foot plus of upslope. Goggle tans and beers flowing midweek with deep Bluebird days. Man I miss my March adventures.  Took until my 40s until I realized spring mid week was my stoke. After the couple of warm sunny days a return to winter conditions the 16th on. 

It's the absolute best. I don't ski anymore but If I was going to give it another go it would be on a day like you described.

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6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

It's fine to show LR anomalies, but I'd rather the overall trends as we move forward.  I'd wager the "cold" shot(s)  will tend moderate a bit as we get closer.

Probably more likely than not. That's what's been happening with these supposed torch long rangers.

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Except you said never ending spring. We all knew Thursday and Friday were warm. As we said over and over and over the pattern changes after the 16th. You enjoy this week but ... 

download (5).png

Yeah a couple days in the '60s is not what I would describe as a torch. Sure, it's good bit above climate norms but it's not like anyone's going to be hitting the beach.

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6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yeah a couple days in the '60s is not what I would describe as a torch. Sure, it's good bit above climate norms but it's not like anyone's going to be hitting the beach.

+25 but not a torch, just delusional

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who’s ready for another 2-4” of rain ?!

The amount of water pouring and flowing out of hillsides around here is amazing 

3IUUtqT.jpeg

Looks overdone compared to other guidance. Let’s hope.

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24 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yeah a couple days in the '60s is not what I would describe as a torch. Sure, it's good bit above climate norms but it's not like anyone's going to be hitting the beach.

March 2012 ain't walking in anyone's door. Typical March with steep variations day to day. I stand by my call Mid March to Mid April BN by a few. Brownies and all

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