Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: There is zero chance that period averages BN as a whole. Oh I like the zero chance challenges ask PF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like a bit of a heat burst at SWF overnight Probably not a coincidence that 104F is 40C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 minute ago, tamarack said: Probably not a coincidence that 104F is 40C. Yeah right some mouse running across must have tripped a conversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 33 minutes ago, psv88 said: Pretty wild this sub forum continues the climate change battle lol. Good luck with the below normal spring forecasts Dumb.zero to do with climate change. No one arguing CC. Who called for a BN spring March 21 to May 21? Link. Wrong subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 32 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Power Wagon FTW! The best for storm duty, the electric lockers are awesome in deep snow.... whatever that is My wife has a fully loaded F 150. Could actually use it as a generator lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On this side of an imminent -EPO burst ... those model products are likely to bias cold at this time of year. I've come to observe that is true ... all year, but particularly so during seasonal forcing of spring/sun "rug pulling" on cold patterns is a real modeling error aspect that shouldn't be neglected inclusion in anyone's usage of extended model application. To wit, all those graphical products are interpolatively based upon modeled input parameters, ...such that if the latter are cold bias (destined correct warm), the rest of this statement becomes academic. In other words, be careful with the scale and degree of cold. In the modeled dailies ... already the first of the cold trough incursions into the mid latitude continent scheduled to pass through the 18th thru the 21st, has morphed both shallower at mid and upper level non-hydrostatic hgts, but also tending to shear into a positive slope orientation ... not extending as deeply in latitude as it was when first detected some 10 days ago ( some may recall, model runs depicting 20th major EC winter storm ..etc). That was suggested by some posters back then as a possible correction. Not that anyone argued the point ... but it's worth it to mention because I'm not sure I see why the next trough out there around the 23rd-25th doesn't also attenuate some for the total cold. Granted the 20th hasn't verified yet ... but the process of attenuation is both historically supported, and apparently taking place. I'd also caution that the local hemisphere may also surge in temperature with a cold pattern extinction around the tail-end of the month/first week of April - as an impending correction. All polarward index domain spaces neutralizing and as many recent years have demonstrated at global scales ( regardless of season, really -), given lesser reasons to wash out cold and warm mid latitudes, there's usually a disproportionately stronger result compared to distant guidance panache. Nonetheless, between this weekend and next weekend, there'll still be a dicey time for some wintry results between the NP-GL-N OV-NE latitudes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Mammoth. Must be nice 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 You March 12 enthusiasts better hope AI is OTL. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Mammoth. Must be nice Not for the person who lives in that house, they must have had to tunnel out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I wonder if there's an AI version of the entire Euro ensemble suite, or is this just a gimmick operational version? By the way, I haven't seen much improvement by the AI over the standard operational version for the time period that seems to drive people particularly batty, D7 thru 11. That's just anecdotal - I'm sure there must be both a verification and comparative program, far more qualitative and quantitative than that but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 13 hours ago, NoCORH4L said: Undercoat and frequent washing help prevent corrosion Where do you have the undercoat done? ...At your mechanic? What do they charge, and type of vehicle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 20 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Mammoth. Must be nice Last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder if there's an AI version of the entire Euro ensemble suite, or is this just a gimmick operational version? By the way, I haven't seen much improvement by the AI over the standard operational version for the time period that seems to drive people particularly batty, D7 thru 11. That's just anecdotal - I'm sure there must be both a verification and comparative program, far more qualitative and quantitative than that but who knows. Yes there is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Where do you have the undercoat done? ...At your mechanic? What do they charge, and type of vehicle? I go to Rust Check, a local place here in Portland. Cost is ~$220. They pop the taillights and spray inside the panels and of course the entire underside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Not for the person who lives in that house, they must have had to tunnel out. Ya wonder what the elevation of that property in the back ground, is... Like, if it's > 7K feet... what does one expect? I'm not sure of any real "awe" factor in placing constructed civility beyond recreation up that high, particularly in that geography and climate consideration. It's like building a house at the bottom of the ocean and then gawking photos about the flood. People that defend the gawk ability as justified, try to argue that 'even for them that is x-y-z ...' and I don't buy it. That part of the continent has been sitting their prone to the Pacific ocean and the global westerlies bombardment for the last 50 million years of Plate Tectonics ... surviving both ice and fire epochs. It's why either extreme of water and drought, and the types of events that correlate with either ...strike me as too local to 'white man's ' conquest of the north American continent - too brief in geological history and there are probably more likely to be certain place where descending society should just not have built. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Last year? yeah, my bad it was last year. I pulled it off FB and thought it was more recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You March 12 enthusiasts better hope AI is OTL. I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. Of course your area will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: yeah, my bad it was last year. I pulled it off FB and thought it was more recent. Yea my buds out there. But still tons of snow. Yesterday and a summer comparison 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Pretty wild this sub forum continues the climate change battle lol. Good luck with the below normal spring forecasts Except that isn't the "battle". The battle is between someone calling for a 2012 redux (temps in the 80's) and some saying probably not, closer to 50 and cloudy/rainy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. Of course your area will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. Wagons north NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes there is That's what I was hoping to see ... Wait, that doesn't say ECMWF "ensemble" AI ... it says "ECMWF AI" ? Yeah, this weekend through next weekend is dicy for wintry events from the NP-GL-NE as this -EPO and attending +PNA couplet play out. The AI version of the operational is already guilty of going particularly nutty in that range - now apparently a flatter more tamed cold passage around the 20th. So we'll see. When I worked at WSI back in 2005 ... I had access to the Euro operational run - which does go out to 360 hours ( or did so back then). I remember the model tended to wind up everything beyond 240 hours. When I saw this AI stuff for the first time ... it was bringing back memories - made me wonder if we're just seeing what the Euro ( non AI) always tends to do way out in time, anyway. Just speculation though... Anyway, so long as the -3EPO and +1PNA canvas is there, ..we can't negate the possibility of a wintry event altogether. I just personally don't lean that way because of a slew of objective facets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 minute ago, mreaves said: Except that isn't the "battle". The battle is between someone calling for a 2012 redux (temps in the 80's) and some saying probably not, closer to 50 and cloudy/rainy. How they twist things... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I should go visit my sister in the Denver foothills. Now that's a snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I should go visit my sister in the Denver foothills. Now that's a snowstorm Loveland should do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 18 minutes ago, mreaves said: Except that isn't the "battle". The battle is between someone calling for a 2012 redux (temps in the 80's) and some saying probably not, closer to 50 and cloudy/rainy. Mmm I beg to differ. People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity. Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. Of course your area will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. Neither of you are favored for anything except spring. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Neither of you are favored for anything except spring. He's delusional. Even JB gave up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mmm I beg to differ. People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity. Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of lol I understand what you're saying and think in many instances that would be the correct assessment. In this case though I take @RUNNAWAYICEBERG's posts as straight up and don't think of him as infusing "reasonable skepticisms". I take as simply saying it doesn't seem like sunny and 80° is in the cards anytime soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mmm I beg to differ. People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity. Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of lol Luke doesn't deny CC....he just doesn't think its going to be 70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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