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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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On 3/16/2024 at 7:03 PM, CAPE said:

No. This isn't arbitrary. You need to read more. Google can be your friend, as long as you don't fall prey to disinformation. Plenty of that available on the subject.

When people say "Google is your friend" I find it to be a bit condescending, like somebody saying you were too dumb to look into something. But maybe I'm making too much of it (probably, lol)

In this hobby/obsession, I find that sometimes I'm not even sure exactly what TO Google to find something. If it were a general guide that said "For this, try these sites. For that, try those sites", it may help. Finding a temperature for a particular day, or what the snow totals were for a particular year is easy enough...but beyond that it's less clear where to go for stuff. 

For example, where do I find charts that are easy to see the trend of temperatures for a particular month? For a specific thing like that I wouldn't know where to start.

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4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I want it to be simple...but just to make some kind of sense! I'm still not 100% past irony of the whole warmer planet but cooler ENSO thing, but at least when you mention trade wind things makes that make more sense to this layman (wind blowing on water making it cooler=something that makes sense)

But to your point about the transient cold shots being common...so you're in the thinking that it's not happening more than it used to, but it just feels that way?

The transient cold shots are normal. What’s not normal is effortlessly running the temp up to 80 degrees on any random winter day in between.

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On 3/15/2024 at 10:46 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I have never been skiing...I'm not sure I've ever been in any kind of elevation at all, actually. So I'd be a complete novice! I am not at all athletic, and balance is a bit questionable...but it's something I'd be willing to dip my toe in (although given the prices mentioned here...a trip out west ain't happening any time soon, lol)

OK, if you want to give downhill a try, here's my advice, which others I'm sure can add to. Don't go out west just to try to ski. It's pricey, to say the least, and you may find you really don't like it. Maybe the first thing you should do is - find someone to go with. Not many people just make a decision on their own to go by themselves and start skiing - most have friends or family and it's a lot more fun. The other person or people don't even have to be skiers, which might be even better because you're all in the same boat trying something new. It may seem obvious, but take a lesson. Ski resorts have instructors that specialize in "never-evers" of all ages. The first time, it's probably best to just go locally to Liberty, Roundtop or Whitetail. You absolutely do not have to make a major trip to a "big resort". If you have flexibility, try to pick a sunny but cold, calm day. Unfortunately, as we have all discussed here ad nauseam, these are getting rarer and rarer around here. You don't need to buy any equipment or even clothing in advance, everything you need can be rented at the slopes in a package. If you really want to see snow cover, you can go by car to northern New England, but what will happen when you are there is still a bit of a crapshoot. Last year during 3 days in March in Vermont, we had 37 inches of snow. This year first week in March it rained almost every day, but fortunately not all the time, so we still skied. And Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are beautiful places in the winter with plenty of other activities. If you find downhill is not for you, you can do X-country, which is a lot easier and cheaper just to "go out and do it".

And don't let a "not athletic" self-image deter you. I started in my 30s and no one has ever called me "athletic". I may not be very good, but I think being out in the mountains in the winter is magic. My father started after he retired in his 60s and went many times to New England and even out west. Had a great time with it for years.

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7 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

For anyone that doesn’t read the article, he started 13 of the 700 fires.  Quote from the article below…


Despite a string of conspiratorial theories over the summer, amplified by Alberta’s premier, nearly all of Canada’s fires were caused by lightning striking the tinder-like condition of forests.”

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On 3/16/2024 at 11:03 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

When people say "Google is your friend" I find it to be a bit condescending, like somebody saying you were too dumb to look into something. But maybe I'm making too much of it (probably, lol)

In this hobby/obsession, I find that sometimes I'm not even sure exactly what TO Google to find something. If it were a general guide that said "For this, try these sites. For that, try those sites", it may help. Finding a temperature for a particular day, or what the snow totals were for a particular year is easy enough...but beyond that it's less clear where to go for stuff. 

For example, where do I find charts that are easy to see the trend of temperatures for a particular month? A specific thing that I wouldn't know where to start.

Maybe start here-

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/national/202213

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The 12z GFS and GEM runs are becoming a little more bullish on the WOTBR snow threat for Friday night, both op and ens.

GFS op -  3- 5" both 10:1 and Kuchera  qp 1.38" previous .65".........  GEFS  1 - 2 " previous .3" ......qp .55" previous .30"

GEM op - 0 ................ CMC ens  .8"  previous .4",  qp 1.05" previous .60"

ECM 0   ECM ens 0

A long shot but the trend is my friend.

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1 hour ago, stormy said:

The 12z GFS and GEM runs are becoming a little more bullish on the WOTBR snow threat for Friday night, both op and ens.

GFS op -  3- 5" both 10:1 and Kuchera  qp 1.38" previous .65".........  GEFS  1 - 2 " previous .3" ......qp .55" previous .30"

GEM op - 0 ................ CMC ens  .8"  previous .4",  qp 1.05" previous .60"

ECM 0   ECM ens 0

A long shot but the trend is my friend.

Good luck.

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Gfs has been really bad this year imo.

Had mby snowing in about 96 hours where no other model is even close 

It isn't going to snow anywhere near Staunton. He can drive NW towards Canaan if he wants to see snow. NW and 3000+ ft is where accumulating snow will be. This isn't difficult lol.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Good luck.

Thanks Cape.  We both know this is not likely to happen.  The 18z GFS has dropped from 5.0 to 2.9" for Augusta.

But, during a slow week, it gives us something to chat about.

Wow! the GFS increased from 1.38" to 2.04" qp for Augusta!!!

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It isn't going to snow anywhere near Staunton. He can drive NW towards Canaan if he wants to see snow. NW and 3000+ ft is where accumulating snow will be. This isn't difficult lol.

On Sat. morning I can drive to 4400 ft. withing 20 miles of my place. A lot better than 95 miles to Cannan for 3400 ft.. , 1000 ft. lower.   Of course that would be 70 miles n.w..

 

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On Sat. morning I can drive to 4400 ft. withing 20 miles of my place. A lot better than 95 miles to Cannan for 3400 ft.. , 1000 ft. lower.   Of course that would be 70 miles n.w..
 

Where is this at?
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12 hours ago, Ji said:


Where is this at?

Elliot Knob 20 miles west of Staunton is 4463 ft. and expecting 4.4 inches of snow Friday night. Hike to the summit. Reddish Knob about 20 miles north on the Augusta/Pendleton county line at 4398 ft.,  has a narrow paved road to the summit with large potholes.

 

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6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Watch out he’ll gladly tell you about the latest rainfall forecasts  

Can't speak for him, but we kinda need Friday night to come to fruition out here for rainfall.... Right at 2.71 total precip since January 28th.... With another day here with winds gusting in the 40s and the growing season starting - Its drying out pretty fast....

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3 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Can't speak for him, but we kinda need Friday night to come to fruition out here for rainfall.... Right at 2.71 total precip since January 28th.... With another day here with winds gusting in the 40s and the growing season starting - Its drying out pretty fast....

We are smoked out again here.  There is a fire burning somewhere upwind.

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