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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Oh and there is a storm on the WB EPS control for the late March- early April period if you are dreaming of a White Easter.

IMG_3334.png

I remember when the parallel gfs was giving out snow storms around Memorial day a few years ago

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30 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Oh and there is a storm on the WB EPS control for the late March- early April period if you are dreaming of a White Easter.

IMG_3334.png

Ok if we’re being more realistic guidance does suggest there might be some pretty awesome snowstorms up in the mountains of Vermont, NH, Maine the last week of March and early April.  If you need to see one more snow that bad just plan a trip. I’m stoked for what it could mean for the late ski season. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Drive through Codorus today, the lake is very low. Surprising, we’ve been reasonably wet. 

Despite a dry February, I think we’re pretty good with a major AN December and January. Plus guidance suggests 2”+ over the next 10 days after today’s rain. 
 

But I remain ever vigilant 

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11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest GEFS control also has a storm after the 20th.  May be too little too late but more digital snow than late February ever showed.

IMG_3335.png

All winter you find the worst looking long range guidance to post. Now when there is almost no reasonable chance of snow for DC you’re cherry picking 600 hour control runs.  What’s your deal? 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok if we’re being more realistic guidance does suggest there might be some pretty awesome snowstorms up in the mountains of Vermont, NH, Maine the last week of March and early April.  If you need to see one more snow that bad just plan a trip. I’m stoked for what it could mean for the late ski season. 

Better get the knee in shape!!

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

All winter you find the worst looking long range guidance to post. Now when there is almost no reasonable chance of snow for DC you’re cherry picking 600 hour control runs.  What’s your deal? 

He’s a troll. Has been forever.  Worst outcome now for many of us would be a pointless anomalously cold and rainy period around opening day so he posts things that point that show that worst outcome. When it is winter and most of us very much would like snow he does the opposite. That’s what you are noticing.

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5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

He’s a troll. Has been forever.  Worst outcome now for many of us would be a pointless anomalously cold and rainy period around opening day so he posts things that point that show that worst outcome. When it is winter and most of us very much would like snow he does the opposite. That’s what you are noticing.

I know mid to late March is getting real late but the guidance has not folded yet like it did for February.  If/ when it does then I will show that.  I really don't understand the personal attacks in this place.  

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8 hours ago, Ji said:

I tried finding a house in truckee but they were so expensive!

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk
 

Our new next door neighbor in Bend is a retired professor from CA. He also owns a home in Truckee.  He is an Avid Nordic Skiier (Big reason why he bought a home in Bend) He said we have a better longer season than Truckee.

( His garage looks like a Nordic Ski shop LOL) 

The Nordic Options in Oregon are amazing. The High Schools have Nordic as a competitive sport and the US Olympic Team Trains here in the spring.  

Neighbor goes back an forth between homes as well as all over the west for Nordic Races 

Hd dinner with him last week and think he was going to Utah? I will text him and see where he is now.  I imagine his Truckee Home is buried! 

Yesterdays Nordic Report From Mount Bachelor.  Always a fun read : ( Note the comment we have just passed the 1/2 way point in the season ) 

 

Saturday, March 2nd. 7:45am
Mt Bachelor has been engulfed in a snow globe this week, and the flakes continue to fly today. With 6 more inches of light and fluffy accumulations overnight, the base snowpack has rocketed up to 119" deep. That translates to a long and wonderful ski season ahead. In fact, we just passed the halfway mark on this season with nearly 3 months of sliding and gliding yet to come.
Intermittent snow showers and cold temps are on the menu today. The air outside the lodge is 15*F and the snow measures 21*F. Most of the new snowfall accumulated between closing yesterday and 3:30am, allowing the groomer time to blend it into a fresh ski surface. There is silky cord and delightful parallel tracks throughout the Upper Trails, Screamer, Easy Up, Woody's Way, Easy Back, Zig Zag, Upper Devecka's, Blue Jay's, and Dan's Drop. Expect light accumulations on the trails as the day progresses. If things take a turn for the deeper, we will commence snowmobile grooming ops. The Yellow and Orange Snowshoe Trails are being re-packed this morning, and the team will tackle Red Trail after that if time allows.
Part 2 of MBSEF's Par For The Course race kicks off at 10am. RACERS TAKE NOTE: PAR FOR THE COURSE HAS JUST BEEN POSTPONED TO 10AM DUE TO SLOW CONDITIONS ON THE ROAD This citizen's event is entirely contained to Zig Zag and will have very minor impact to the Nordic network. Expect the race to be wrapped and cleaned up by 11:30am. Whether you are headed up to the mountain to test your race legs on the course, or you are gearing up to enjoy the fresh snow on the ski and snowshoe trails, you are bound to enjoy a big burst of winter and have a blast in the process. Expect slow and snowy roads today, and use caution on the commute. Happy Saturday, and happy snow day!

 

 

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2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I know mid to late March is getting real late but the guidance has not folded yet like it did for February.  If/ when it does then I will show that.  I really don't understand the personal attacks in this place.  

Mine wasn’t a personal attack it was a valid question which you didn’t answer. During the winter when we do have a more realistic chance at snow you typically find the least optimistic piece of data. You never show some control run or cherry picked obscure op run that shows a big snowstorm. You typically show the ensembles and even then you usually tend to snow the least snowy presentation. If it’s snowy day 9 you will show the day 1-7 mean lol.  If the mean is snowy you will show the probabilities, which granted are a better way to depict our snow chances but still my point is you always show the most conservative guidance. 
 

Now it’s March and we’re looking at a period that’s very likely too late and now you’re cherry picking op runs and 600 hour control runs that show snow. My observation and question why is valid. And Zens conclusion you are trolling is a logical one given that evidence. If you have an alternative explanation feel free to provide it and set the record straight. 

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mine wasn’t a personal attack it was a valid question which you didn’t answer. During the winter when we do have a more realistic chance at snow you typically find the least optimistic piece of data. You never show some control run or cherry picked obscure op run that shows a big snowstorm. You typically show the ensembles and even then you usually tend to snow the least snowy presentation. If it’s snowy day 9 you will show the day 1-7 mean lol.  If the mean is snowy you will show the probabilities, which granted are a better way to depict our snow chances but still my point is you always show the most conservative guidance. 
 

Now it’s March and we’re looking at a period that’s very likely too late and now you’re cherry picking op runs and 600 hour control runs that show snow. My observation and question why is valid. And Zens conclusion you are trolling is a logical one given that evidence. If you have an alternative explanation feel free to provide it and set the record straight. 

When there is a legit signal for something he will post (mostly) snow mean/probability maps every cycle, ad nauseum. Those are the posts that annoy me the most, because there is never any analysis or interesting commentary. So it's not all deb stuff. Not sure he is trolling as such. WB maps galore!

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30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mine wasn’t a personal attack it was a valid question which you didn’t answer. During the winter when we do have a more realistic chance at snow you typically find the least optimistic piece of data. You never show some control run or cherry picked obscure op run that shows a big snowstorm. You typically show the ensembles and even then you usually tend to snow the least snowy presentation. If it’s snowy day 9 you will show the day 1-7 mean lol.  If the mean is snowy you will show the probabilities, which granted are a better way to depict our snow chances but still my point is you always show the most conservative guidance. 
 

Now it’s March and we’re looking at a period that’s very likely too late and now you’re cherry picking op runs and 600 hour control runs that show snow. My observation and question why is valid. And Zens conclusion you are trolling is a logical one given that evidence. If you have an alternative explanation feel free to provide it and set the record straight. 

We have had only one snowy week this winter; even you were troubled at times that the long range models were not snowier in response to the great H5 looks.  

I wish I had a few inches of snow for every great H5 map shown in the threads this winter....reality sucks sometimes;  nothing done in these threads has any effect on the actual weather.

People should not use me as a scapegoat for the bad winter; or what unfortunately turned out to inaccurate prognostications.

Finally, I really wish the medium/ long range threads were reserved for people's thoughts on weather, if you don't like what I post don't read it!  If it is an inappropriate post, mods can delete it.  If you thing the weather maps I show do not accurately depict what is going to happen post your own thoughts on what will happen.

 

 


 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

We have had only one snowy week this winter; even you were troubled at times that the long range models were not snowier in response to the great H5 looks.  

I wish I had a few inches of snow for every great H5 map shown in the threads this winter....reality sucks sometimes;  nothing done in these threads has any effect on the actual weather.

People should not use me as a scapegoat for the bad winter; or what unfortunately turned out to inaccurate prognostications.

Finally, I really wish the medium/ long range threads were reserved for people's thoughts on weather, if you don't like what I post don't read it!  If it is an inappropriate post, mods can delete it.  If you thing the weather maps I show do not accurately depict what is going to happen post your own thoughts on what will happen.

 

 


 

you're deflecting though... my issue wasn't that you were conservative all winter...I never said anything about that.  But why now, when the odds of snow are way worse...are you suddenly posting the snowiest guidance from each run? 

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Not intending to speak for weather will, but there is probably a reverse psychology component to this. I can relate to it, since unfortunately I do it too. In the northern suburbs of Chicago, we have had 9 consecutive bad winters. 2013-14 was good, 2014-15 was decent (can’t call it good since the first half of winter was almost non-existent that season). The 9 since have been bad, using more meaningful metrics like SDDs (as opposed to snowfall totals). If snow melts after a few days, it ruins the ambience and tenor of winter.

After so many years of being let down, one stops getting excited about winter overall (and snowstorms that show up on models) because it has often resulted in being let down. But in March, you feel more open to being excited, since it’s out of the “expected” season so you have less to lose if the threat falls apart. So, I don’t think it’s trolling.

It also bothers me when people talk about climo all the time, and keeping expectations in check. If that were really true, there’s really no use getting excited about winter. There are certain absolute standards for winter. If you live in Miami, 1976-77 was a cold winter relative to normal. Does that mean it should get an A grade? Of course not, since there was never snow on the ground.

Bing Crosby didn’t sing “I’m dreaming of a white Christmas…with the caveat and hope that all of the atmospheric indices line up perfectly.” I just want symmetry in the seasons. If you wake up in the heart of winter, it should be reliably cold with snow on the ground. When I look out the window in July, I know it’s going to feel and look like summer. There are no worries. I think a lot of us just want winter to be more consistent and reliable. It doesn’t mean there haven’t been wintry periods IMBY over the past 9 years…but there is no consistency. In late January 2019, we had two mornings in the -20s with nearly a foot of snow on the ground, but then it was in the 40s two days later. That’s unacceptable. Cold snaps seem to flip quickly, instead of more gradual warm ups on the back end of them.

End of rant - all of this to say that, for people who really love the tenor of winter and like the harmony of seasons in seasons, it has been a very difficult period. The worst part about this winter is that, even in places where I thought winter was always sacred (like 45N and north in the Midwest), it has been horrendous. I had two snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI, and both were canceled. In fact, many areas never opened trails at all! Usually the season is from 12/15 to 3/15. It’s just horrible. Many areas in far northern WI average near 100”, but have only had 20” this season. Parts of MN have had less than 10” for the season. 

Obviously I don’t live in your forum area, but I stop by here often for the quality of discussion (same with TN valley). The lakes/Ohio valley forum seems puritanical, like you’re not allowed to be excited about snow and cold. Just wanted to add some context to the frustration and conversation. I hate to admit it, but it seems like we need to wait for the AMO and PDO to flip, in order to even have a reasonable chance at a decent winter. I realize this is a pessimistic view, but unfortunately it seems like a reasonable approach after 9 consecutive warm/bad years. 

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