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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread


DDweatherman
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23 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Back in the day things would shift north like this every run. 20-40 miles at a time. We’ve got lucky twice this year with it going the other way. Can we do it one more time?

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apparently maybe is the answer to my rhetorical question above?

also came back this far in the thread to give a shoutout to the AI Euro. Looks pretty good right now.
 

22 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:


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3 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

My concern w the storm is we’re counting on dynamics to get us cold enough for a marginal snow event from a system that’s been weaker than modeled over the past 24 hours

Putting aside my weenie bun, this is a very good point

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7 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

My concern w the storm is we’re counting on dynamics to get us cold enough for a marginal snow event from a system that’s been weaker than modeled over the past 24 hours

I think it is the stronger, more consolidated, and souther closed low pass at 500 that has made the difference.

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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I can't get the site to load right now for whatever reason - but you can learn more about it here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-t-z

Graphcast is Google's AI model. The ECWMF runs it after initializing it off it's data, I think

AI been south all along.  Not sure of its track record before this storm.

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Wow. Absolutely clobbered in the second phase of the storm on HRRR. Have to echo the worries w/ regards to a weaker verification though - have to hope we stay in the Goldilocks zone of weak enough to stay on the south track, but strong enough to get us those eye watering rates on the back end.

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2 minutes ago, Swiscaster said:

I’m up in Philly this week and no one here is talking about snow.  NWS doesn’t have any advisories for the city or nearby burbs.  If any of these models are right, there could be a lot of surprised people.

My sister 20-25 miles NW of Philly is under a WWA for 3-5” but that’s kind of sudden.  This storm is going to have some major busts in both directions.  

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