Scraff Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If the NAM nailed the January storms, why second guess it? It’s on a heater! I’m in…until I’m not. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 48 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol Yeah you probably should not comment at all after your performance the other night 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yes it is. But the HRRR is with it. Getting more interesting for sure. You didn’t help the NAM by listing the HRRR as a character witness 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Jump south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So if this south shift is real, when would the changeover to snow happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, snowmagnet said: So if this south shift is real, when would the changeover to snow happen? Just before the commute I think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 One more 50-75 mile jump south with the low and I'll be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It's not the kiss of death, but major red flags should always be raised with regards to accepting a 12 km NAM solution when its 3 km nest shows something different. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This is very close to a big event. And a nothing event. Makes it fun 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, high risk said: It's not the kiss of death, but major red flags should always be raised with regards to accepting a 12 km NAM solution when its 3 km nest shows something different. Isn’t the main difference just a degree or two. I’d think that’s within the realm and any further tick south or quicker transfer would offset that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, high risk said: It's not the kiss of death, but major red flags should always be raised with regards to accepting a 12 km NAM solution when its 3 km nest shows something different. Agreed. I think the 12k tends to overestimate snowfall and accumulations in marginal situations. I would think that the higher resolution 3k would capture the lower BL and microclimates better, and if the lower BL is a degree too warm then the 12k can easily miss that. The 3km HRRR on the other hand... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 ICON a tick south. But still a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Stupid ICON also came SE some its been furthest north the entire time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Stupid ICON also came SE some its been furthest north the entire time When is that model ever right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Winter storm watch 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Solution Man said: When is that model ever right? never its horrible with the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 RGEM says no as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 957 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 MDZ004>006-507-122300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.240213T0800Z-240213T1800Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- 957 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations around 5 inches are possible. * WHERE...Frederick MD, Carroll, Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain is expected to change to snow between 5 AM and 7 AM. Snow may be heavy at times, with rates of up to 1 inch per hour through mid morning Tuesday. Visibility may be reduced to less than one half mile at times. The combination of wet snow and gusty winds could lead to downed trees and power lines, resulting in isolated power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ BELAK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Winter storm watch Hoping that gets extended south to moco and parrs ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 RAP headed south also. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Winter storm watch Lol at a WSW being issued when this is their current snowfall map 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: "The combination of wet snow and gusty winds could lead to downed trees and power lines, resulting in isolated power outages." 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Lol at a WSW being issued when this is their current snowfall map Well that was at 530am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Lol at a WSW being issued when this is their current snowfall map Map from early this morning though. They will update later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Lol at a WSW being issued when this is their current snowfall map They typically wait for the NAM to come in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 ICON did at least come a little south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 That's a fair move SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 There go the watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Might be the first decent gradient storm of the season. Like maybe an inch here with 4”+ in NW Harford County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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