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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread


DDweatherman
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1 minute ago, high risk said:

It's not the kiss of death, but major red flags should always be raised with regards to accepting a 12 km NAM solution when its 3 km nest shows something different.

Isn’t the main difference just a degree or two. I’d think that’s within the realm and any further tick south or quicker transfer would offset that as well

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

It's not the kiss of death, but major red flags should always be raised with regards to accepting a 12 km NAM solution when its 3 km nest shows something different.

Agreed. I think the 12k tends to overestimate snowfall and accumulations in marginal situations. I would think that the higher resolution 3k would capture the lower BL and microclimates better, and if the lower BL is a degree too warm then the 12k can easily miss that.

The 3km HRRR on the other hand...

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
957 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

MDZ004>006-507-122300-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.240213T0800Z-240213T1800Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-
957 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations around 5
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...Frederick MD, Carroll, Northern Baltimore and
  Northwest Harford Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain is expected to change to snow
  between 5 AM and 7 AM. Snow may be heavy at times, with rates
  of up to 1 inch per hour through mid morning Tuesday.
  Visibility may be reduced to less than one half mile at times.
  The combination of wet snow and gusty winds could lead to
  downed trees and power lines, resulting in isolated power
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

BELAK
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