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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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tornado warning that is by Cross Lake, or possibly well into the woods north of Brainerd MN

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Aitkin MN-Crow Wing MN-
631 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL AITKIN AND CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTIES...

At 631 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Cuyuna, or 16
miles northeast of Brainerd, moving southeast at 55 mph.

 

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Hoping to thread that needle between big storms and zero damage from either hail or wind tonight. As somebody said earlier in the year, the problem with extended active patterns is the second they slow down for even a few days it feels like a month since the last good storm

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Frontal passage timing is not looking optimal for today, with the disturbance moving through the region today helping to kick it southward fairly quickly.

It's looking like initiation may occur right across portions of the metro, perhaps in the vicinity of the I-88/I-80 corridors.

In other words, it's likely a miss south for some around here.

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7 hours ago, MidwestChaser said:

What's a guy gotta do to get an MCS around here?

It’s been unreal. Had a very very brief downpour yesterday, maybe 90 seconds as the first line passed just to my NE and the second just to my south.  Had to go out before sunset and water when it became obvious it was all going to miss us again 
 

23 days now without any appreciable rain.  Every single day I’ve had to water the garden since May 22nd.  North central Indiana looks very dry to me as well when I drive around 

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That slight risk for this afternoon/evening definitely looks overdone.

While there's sufficient instability and moisture, shear is greatly lacking. Can already see the effects of that issue with the current activity in the DVN CWA being very outflow dominant.

A marginal risk for an isolated severe t'storm threat would have been sufficient.

On the flip-side, what a forecast change from what looked like a dry day just 12 hours ago. MCV magic...

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