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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Either way, I don't understand SPC's lack of even a hatched area for any hazard on the Day 3 outlook...

Same. Enhanced days are significant weather days so going to have a hatched area definitely for wind and probably tornadoes. Makes 0 sense. 

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34 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Same. Enhanced days are significant weather days so going to have a hatched area definitely for wind and probably tornadoes. Makes 0 sense. 

The 30% contour alone (doesn't need a hatched area) drives an "Enhanced" category; but pattern recognition alone (compact, negatively tilted shortwave, deepening surface low with rich moisture in the warm sector) suggests this event will be capable of producing significant severe weather of some type, perhaps widespread.

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50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The 30% contour alone (doesn't need a hatched area) drives an "Enhanced" category; but pattern recognition alone (compact, negatively tilted shortwave, deepening surface low with rich moisture in the warm sector) suggests this event will be capable of producing significant severe weather of some type, perhaps widespread.

I agree. But the 30% area will likely need one from evolving qlcs. And hatched area will be needed further west for tornado threat near sfc low and large hail threat with initial discrete supercells. 

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49 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Today definitely has that stormy feel to it

Lapse rates aren't great and the storms are outpacing the better shear. If the shear was just a little more pronounced in the warm sector, I'd like our odds for more widespread severe weather.

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Lapse rates aren't great and the storms are outpacing the better shear. If the shear was just a little more pronounced in the warm sector, I'd like our odds for more widespread severe weather.

I’ll take just some good ole GV. Save the severe stuff for when we get those ridge riders. 

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35 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Well that was fun. Just got to experience a wet micro burst. Couldn’t see a damn thing trees going crazy. Somehow have power. I’d definitely say it was a solid 30 seconds of 60-65mph gusts

Y'all are definitely getting the goods.

Seems the city's getting slammed right now too, maybe even with some small hail.

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Just now, Powerball said:

Y'all definitely gettign the goods.

Seems the city's getting slammed right now too, maybe even with some small hail.

I was tending to the garden when the drops and winds picked up. As soon as I went inside the winds hit. Almost got caught. Would have quite interesting not gonna lie.

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2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Well that was fun. Just got to experience a wet micro burst. Couldn’t see a damn thing trees going crazy. Somehow have power. I’d definitely say it was a solid 30 seconds of 60-65mph gusts

I left work (intentionally) to go through one of those.  It was some awesome heavy rains. :maprain: Definitely some good winds too.  Police had to block a road on my way home making it a totally dirt road adventure :lmao:

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5 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Well that was fun. Just got to experience a wet micro burst. Couldn’t see a damn thing trees going crazy. Somehow have power. I’d definitely say it was a solid 30 seconds of 60-65mph gusts

Quote

0330 PM

TORNADO

LIVONIA

06/05/2024

THE LIVONIA EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE EXTENDING FROM LYNDON TO NORMAN ST TO SIX MILE   AND MERRIMAN RD.

 

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SPC has Day 4/5 outlooks out for portions of the central-northern Plains to Midwest for Wednesday/Thursday. Global models show moisture returning north under a brisk northwest flow aloft; but not much in the way of a discernible surface response (deep SLP center, 850mb LLJ) for a focused :twister:threat. Will have to keep an eye on finer-scale mesoscale details for that, if it materializes.

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