Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Snowguy66]

Hoping we don’t get anything that sticks. I’ve got a pokeyman convention to go to. Would love for it to trend warmer.


.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For someone that has almost 500,000 weather posts.. when you see him disappear.. you know it’s for one of two reasons.. either he doesn’t want to publicly melt or this storm and winter have totally and completely broken him and he needs time away and doesn’t want to ruin it for the folks getting good snows from it 

Either that, or time for the job, wife and two kids...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said:

Hoping we don’t get anything that sticks. I’ve got a pokeyman convention to go to. Would love for it to trend warmer.


.

Who cares about Pikachoo…bring the snow.  Just drive slow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Either that, or time for the job, wife and two kids...

It’s never been that . You don’t amass that amount of posts if so . He loves the fam .. but weather also obsesses him . Like each and everyone of us here. 

[dryslot]

18z Euro is a bit further north so far this run from 12z, A bit less confluence and higher heights out ahead, Still ends up a bit better on qpf then 12z.

[DavisStraight]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who cares about Pikachoo…bring the snow.  Just drive slow. 

I have a friend who made a small fortune off of Pikachoo.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The run to run changes are wild on the Euro... Moderate to Heavy Snow starts at 2-4am Sunday on the 18z EURO for Western New England.. A good stripe of 6-8" 84 north .. It's a thump of snow , break, then some CCB snow tries to form at the end but its a ragged precip shield .. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The run to run changes are wild on the Euro... Moderate to Heavy Snow starts at 2-4am Sunday on the 18z EURO for Western New England.. A good stripe of 6-8" 84 north .. 

lol I thought this was a Sunday night into Monday deal? 

[ORH_wxman]

Decent event for interior on 18z euro though the midlevels are very marginal early on in CT before they crash. 
 

It would still be nice to actually link the WCB and CCB stuff…the fact they they are separated like that on all these runs today is partially responsible for the lower jackpot totals now…instead of 12-16 it’s like 6-9”

 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Sled said:

I miss last year's George, everything was gonna be a blizzard- much more fun than downcast George.

I prefer bawdy George, liar George, but he’s dying Jerry, he’s dying!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent event for interior on 18z euro though the midlevels are very marginal early on in CT before they crash. 
 

It would still be nice to actually link the WCB and CCB stuff…the fact they they are separated like that on all these runs today is partially responsible for the lower jackpot totals now…instead of 12-16 it’s like 6-9”

 

Ya I thought it was all rain at first glance.. Not quite sure how it's computing snow in Central CT with 850 temps of +1 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

lol I thought this was a Sunday night into Monday deal? 

ya wild has a band of 1"+ per hour heavy wet snow pre dawn Sunday - It's acting like the NAM with these swings in sensible weather and its only 60-72 hours out as well .. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent event for interior on 18z euro though the midlevels are very marginal early on in CT before they crash. 
 

It would still be nice to actually link the WCB and CCB stuff…the fact they they are separated like that on all these runs today is partially responsible for the lower jackpot totals now…instead of 12-16 it’s like 6-9”

 

I knew that 12z run was full of shit.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew that 12z run was full of shit.

Dude wtf is going on with the EURO ... I mean it actually matches up with GFS decently now .. 18z GFS and EURO have a predawn snow start time Sunday for CT lol no one is expecting that .. I feel like that maximizes the cold and snow potential in CT because temps don't rise into the upper 30s like originally forecast .. rather they are 32-33 when precip moves in 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The run to run changes are wild on the Euro... Moderate to Heavy Snow starts at 2-4am Sunday on the 18z EURO for Western New England.. A good stripe of 6-8" 84 north .. It's a thump of snow , break, then some CCB snow tries to form at the end but its a ragged precip shield .. 

We tried  to explain today . You folks lost all sense of reality 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya wild has a band of 1"+ per hour heavy wet snow pre dawn Sunday - It's acting like the NAM with these swings in sensible weather and its only 60-72 hours out as well .. 

that’s why it’s a JAM these days. Way too swingy. Can’t trust it. 

[dryslot]

EPS probably has a few west members from the mean when it comes out as there is a bit of moisture that hangs back.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried  to explain today . You folks lost all sense of reality 

I still believe nothing until we get multi guidance agreement .. rain / snow / shredded mess all still on table.. Although your spot in NE CT at 1000' has the most wiggle room and is pretty likely to see plowable snow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Dude wtf is going on with the EURO ... I mean it actually matches up with GFS decently now .. 18z GFS and EURO have a predawn snow start time Sunday for CT lol no one is expecting that .. 

You just need to treat the OP as an ensemble member until within like 24 hours....I wonder if all of the enhanced data assimilation and resolution has improved/increased dispersiveness....ie the ensemble mean is better at calling BS on the OP.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is barely 0C at 850 near the MA border at hr 78. Sell the clowns.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You just need to treat the OP as an ensemble member until within like 24 hours....I wonder if all of the enhanced data assimilation and resolution has improved/increased dispersiveness....ie the ensemble mean is better at calling BS on the OP.

The EPS has been pretty jumpy too for an ensemble.. Our first storm of the year when you got 18" .. It had my area in the 8-10" zone right up until game-time until the rug got pulled out and everything shifted north.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is barely 0C at 850 near the MA border at hr 78. Sell the clowns.

I know I mentioned that earlier it's +1 over most of CT 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I thought it was all rain at first glance.. Not quite sure how it's computing snow in Central CT with 850 temps of +1 

It’s warm. Looks like the cmc. Toss the clowns. More like 2-4” along 84 in wct. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is barely 0C at 850 near the MA border at hr 78. Sell the clowns.

MA/CT border?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MA/CT border?

Yup. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m thinking 4-8” in my neck of the woods right now.  Low ceiling.    This will be a wet pasty one.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is barely 0C at 850 near the MA border at hr 78. Sell the clowns.

About Hartford north stays isothermal 

 

[dmcginvt]

from btv afd

Would not be surprised based on water vapor
presentation of s/w energy and mid/upper lvl trof, this system is
stronger than modeled and is slower to shear apart in the fast
confluent flow aloft acrs the NE CONUS, resulting in a slight
northward trend in pops/precip on Sunday into Monday. At this time,
best potential for a snow accumulation would be along and south of
Interstate 89 acrs central/southern VT, 

[Damage In Tolland]

You’re going to need elevation to get snow to begin 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re going to need elevation to get snow to begin 

Yeah like 5000’