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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and we're probably not going to see any sustained good winter patterns for the rest of our lives

Folks may think your just trolling and ... I don't know, maybe that is your intent.  Either way, this may be entirely true wrt the MJO ...

 

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27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and sustained good winter patterns will be harder to achieve and less frequent 

Fixed it for you, c’mon man you’re a met have some integrity and commitment to the science instead of trolling people trying to enjoy a hobby. Sad 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks may think your just trolling and ... I don't know, maybe that is your intent.  Either way, this may be entirely true wrt the MJO ...

 

 

5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Fixed it for you, c’mon man you’re a met have some integrity and commitment to the science instead of trolling people trying to enjoy a hobby. Sad 

the empirical evidence is pretty bad, no? 

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

the empirical evidence is pretty bad, no? 

I don't have a problem with putting the posit forth ...

I've opined already re the apparent uncoupled ENSO times.   It's intuitive to at least ask the question -

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34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

maybe the huge area of near 90 degree water in the west pac will magically cool down despite co2 emissions not dropping

2015: “the west coast pacific warm blob isn’t going to magically cool”

2024: “the tropical pacific warm blob isn’t going to magically cool”

 

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59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree there was a signal for a storm. You had a thread on it well prior to it becoming very cohesive on guidance. But it was prior to getting a good airmass in here…sort of the leading edge of the pattern shift. 
 

Seems our biggest problem going forward is now not being able to time any features together in the longwave pattern to produce a larger scale winter storm…there’s always something mucking it up whether it’s shortwave spacing or the longwave pattern itself breaking down after short intervals of favoribility. 

OH right ... I remember you guys were coming at that from the perspective of cold loading/availability.  

Yeah, I was just going with a system - heh...figure we need that first or the rest of it's irrelevant.   As it were, the cold sort of got better as we neared. 

You know, while on the subject, I noticed that on the day itself, it seemed the cold relaxed a little?  

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Wait a minute ... I'm lost I guess.

Forky made a comment about the West Pacific warm ocean muting the MJO's mechanics.

He may have been a bit brutish with his assessment that there will never be a winter ever again  - personally... y'all too sensitive to tongue-in-cheekisms.   Least, that's what I took that as. Sardonic/droll humor.

Something is fucking up winters.  That's in the data.  Not only that, there is long list of papers published over this last decade, discussing the empirically demoed alterations in the global circulation patterns. These are damning data and logically derived papers -

We should stop stomping on everyone and accusing them of troll because their voice implicates and/or posits causalities and consequences.   I'm not defending Forky here ...I'm just not seeing that what he said is really that bad.  

MJO's haven't been coupling as well to the hemispheres, nor have ENSOs ...

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2015: “the west coast pacific warm blob isn’t going to magically cool”

2024: “the tropical pacific warm blob isn’t going to magically cool”

 

what's going to cool down the equatorial west pac? mid latitude storms don't reach that area :( 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait a minute ... I'm lost I guess.

Forky made a comment about the West Pacific warm ocean muting the MJO's mechanics.

He may have been a bit brutish with his assessment that there will never be a winter ever again  - personally... y'all too sensitive to tongue-in-cheekisms.   Least, that's what I took that as. Sardonic/droll humor.

Something is fucking up winters.  That's in the data.  Not only that, there is long list of paper published discussing the empirically demoed alterations in the global circulation patterns. These are damning data and logically derived papers -

We should stop stomping on everyone and accusing them of troll because their voice implicate and/or posits causalities.   I'm not defending Forky here ...I'm just not seeing that what he said is really that bad.  

MJO's have been been coupling as well to the hemispheres, nor have ENSOs ...

i do think that this is also sorta cyclical. the western US and northern Plains have been cashing in over the last several years. it's not like the entire US has just blowtorched every single year since 2015-16. the cold has just been focused somewhere else

cd70_89_205_249_44_12_19_43_prcp.png.da0a9690538a0bc3a3c501990e4587e5.png

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait a minute ... I'm lost I guess.

Forky made a comment about the West Pacific warm ocean muting the MJO's mechanics.

He may have been a bit brutish with his assessment that there will never be a winter ever again  - personally... y'all too sensitive to tongue-in-cheekisms.   Least, that's what I took that as. Sardonic/droll humor.

Something is fucking up winters.  That's in the data.  Not only that, there is long list of papers published over this last decade, discussing the empirically demoed alterations in the global circulation patterns. These are damning data and logically derived papers -

We should stop stomping on everyone and accusing them of troll because their voice implicate and/or posits causalities.   I'm not defending Forky here ...I'm just not seeing that what he said is really that bad.  

MJO's have been been coupling as well to the hemispheres, nor have ENSOs ...

You are funny some times I think on purpose 

can you respond to Will’s post just bc sometimes Mets seem to have some sort of code to agree with each other more than random “weenie” Posters 

Will was jabbing back at Forky’s assertion mild troll post about winters being dismembered by cc by remind him what folks said in 2015

 

2015 “the west coast warm blob isn’t going to magically cool

2024 “the tropical warm pool won’t disappear magically 

lets ask you to respond with both Mets previous ideas in mind 

this is more to See where you stand and your level or confidence . I.E we are unlikely to see as much Sustained winters ( of the beginning of this generation ) and the last two are likely to repeat often with regard to the PAC . I’m not judging I’m looking to get your real take and confidence level 

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i do think that this is also sorta cyclical. the western US and northern Plains have been cashing in over the last several years. it's not like the entire US has just blowtorched every single year since 2015-16. the cold has just been focused somewhere else

cd70_89_205_249_44_12_19_43_prcp.png.da0a9690538a0bc3a3c501990e4587e5.png

It makes it all problematic.

It does impose certain challenges to attribution when cycles, vs changing the wholesale planetary system, ...obscure one another.

 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What a winter for Anchorage. One of their coldest/snowiest on record then they roll in with a daily record high yesterday. They must be jumping for joy...unless they like the cold. 

Coldest?  

I thought it was just snowy... 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What a winter for Anchorage. One of their coldest/snowiest on record then they roll in with a daily record high yesterday. They must be jumping for joy...unless they like the cold. 

It’s the only place currently that can sustain winter weather with the unfavorable MJO phases.

@forkyfork and @bluewave are correct, the unfavorable mjo phases are here to stay. Winters will be more like the past few years then the snowy early 2000’s 

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wait a minute ... I'm lost I guess.

Forky made a comment about the West Pacific warm ocean muting the MJO's mechanics.

He may have been a bit brutish with his assessment that there will never be a winter ever again  - personally... y'all too sensitive to tongue-in-cheekisms.   Least, that's what I took that as. Sardonic/droll humor.

Something is fucking up winters.  That's in the data.  Not only that, there is long list of papers published over this last decade, discussing the empirically demoed alterations in the global circulation patterns. These are damning data and logically derived papers -

We should stop stomping on everyone and accusing them of troll because their voice implicates and/or posits causalities and consequences.   I'm not defending Forky here ...I'm just not seeing that what he said is really that bad.  

MJO's haven't been coupling as well to the hemispheres, nor have ENSOs ...

I didn't see Forky's post as trolling.

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3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

It’s the only place currently that can sustain winter weather with the unfavorable MJO phases.

@forkyfork and @bluewave are correct, the unfavorable mjo phases are here to stay. Winters will be more like the past few years then the snowy early 2000’s 

The problem I have with all that is that if the MJO wave mechanics are less coupled to the hemisphere in general ...that doesn't logically mean that the absence of MJO influence should "stick" the hemisphere anywhere - the MJO is rendered less effectual ... that's what that should mean.  Nothing else.

Folks are trying to create their own attribution models ... some of them may be okay, but we need to remember: this is all out here in the hoi polloi of conjectural storms that are vastly more violent than any K.U. bomb that's ever occurred ...

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s the only place currently that can sustain winter weather with the unfavorable MJO phases.

@forkyfork and @bluewave are correct, the unfavorable mjo phases are here to stay. Winters will be more like the past few years then the snowy early 2000’s 

All in cycles too...70's to 90's were not great, 2000-2018 was great....2019-? crap

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20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You are funny some times I think on purpose 

can you respond to Will’s post just bc sometimes Mets seem to have some sort of code to agree with each other more than random “weenie” Posters 

Will was jabbing back at Forky’s assertion mild troll post about winters being dismembered by cc by remind him what folks said in 2015

 

2015 “the west coast warm blob isn’t going to magically cool

2024 “the tropical warm pool won’t disappear magically 

lets ask you to respond with both Mets previous ideas in mind 

this is more to See where you stand and your level or confidence . I.E we are unlikely to see as much Sustained winters ( of the beginning of this generation ) and the last two are likely to repeat often with regard to the PAC . I’m not judging I’m looking to get your real take and confidence level 

We have to think of this along deltas.   The delta is consummately going to be pointed in a warming direction - all told science included.

But that's not absolute.  We're not standing on the sun for acknowledging that objectively, here.  Of course we can still sustain a winter -

What does sustain mean, anyway.  If it means matching  "expectations" ?   NO, that will never happen. There's only so much heroine in Earth's atmosphere...  But everyone also just leans the expectation too far over the line relative to all input anyway.

In 1995-1996, the greatest winter I ever experienced for longevity...we couldn't even sustain it the whole way. We had a 2 or 3 week melt down in the midst of it that put the stank on the phrase muddy thaw.  Winter came back and persisted into the first couple of weeks of April.

But all that aside... the probability of sustaining winter for longer durations ( keeping it ambivalent like that), is going down.  That much isn't up to my confidence, ...so long as the world keeps warming and these materialization of consequences continue to offset, there is no other conclusion.

But "going down" is often interpreted as rock bottom in the panic prone withdraw syndrome of the d-drip hopefuls.

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

could be wrong...thought I had come across something recently that it was one of their coldest to. 

OH I don't know.  I wasn't impugning ...  I heard about the snowy year.  But I didn't know of the temperature stuff

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks are trying to create their own attribution models ... 

This is the point. Discuss the science behind those assertions of attribution. Forky is right about the expanding IPWP, it will and has effected our climate here and the evidence suggests it will not favor sustained cold weather. His assertion that we will never experience another sustained winter pattern in the NE is where his ulterior motives become clear.  

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH I don't know.  I wasn't impugning ...  I heard about the snowy year.  But I didn't know of the temperature stuff

January averaged above to normal there just looking at the NOAA jan Temp color anomaly map so I can’t see it being close to the the coldest 

coldest and snowiest doesn’t usually go together in a cold pattern- winter wonderland land , I would guess coldest is also usually drier 

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