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January 6-7 Winter Storm


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I'm heading back west on Saturday morning, just in time to miss the first big east coast snow in 2 years... Helped my dad pull the snowblower out and gas it up yesterday. Berks and the LHV usually does well in these types of storms, in fact even though we're still days away I wouldn't be surprised if they "jackpot" with heavier totals. All speculation as of now.

One thing I've noticed just glancing at the models is there seems to be a cap on totals with this. A relatively quickly moving system so despite being a STJ brewed storm, there won't be much time to precipitate absurd amounts. 12-15" max type of storm, which is still great especially after the past few winters. GFS has obviously been trending much further north with Confluence in SE Canada retreating further north. Euro is better, CMC worse. Seems like a classic EC storm progression leading up!

If I had to take a crack at where the heaviest band sets up, I'd say Northern Berks up through Lehigh, Schuylkill, Carbon, Monroe... That general area. I do believe amplification and a warmer solution is much more probable compared to getting a whiff south 

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The GFS coming in with it's most north and warm run yet. And as I suspected, it's weaker as well. The 12z CMC coming in south from it's previous runs though, almost lining up with the GFS

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