Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I misread your post.  I thought you said it was a decade since you had a good storm.  Reading comp ftl

Lol..sneaking some baileys in the coffee this morning there Mr Hubb. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

In what way? It's funny. I was just thinking about the NAM that we haven't talked about it or brought it into any of the conversations with any storms as of late.

That’s because it only goes out to 84 hrs…so it’s just coming into range now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

not that it means much but big changes on the NAM

 it may be the first by virtue of running first, but picking the first to gather the physical sounding

 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 it may be the first by virtue of running first, but picking the first to gather the physical sounding

 

yup definitely more amped this run

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s because it only goes out to 84 hrs…so it’s just coming into range now. 

Yeah... It's been so long that I forgot .lol

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

yup definitely more amped this run

Yep but still crappy 

[Prismshine Productions]

Yep but still crappy 

Baby steps...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

yup definitely more amped this run

mm, not sure I'm seeing 'more amped'  ...only out to hr 30 though

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

mm, not sure I'm seeing 'more amped'  ...only out to hr 30 though

its out to hr 84

[Typhoon Tip]

gosh .. it almost seems it'd be better if the whole jet stream lifted N because with that high up there and that running over top would probably ignite a general region of isentropic lift snows - generate an event out of generic overrunning.

[Prismshine Productions]

mm, not sure I'm seeing 'more amped'  ...only out to hr 30 though

12km is already out to 84

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

its out to hr 84

tropical tidbits is not a very good site for timely updating I've noticed -

[ORH_wxman]

NAM would actually have the storm on the kicker wave....the front runner gets ground up so much that it isn't able to sweep away the baroclinic zone with it.

 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

tropical tidbits is not a very good site for timely updating I've noticed -

its out hit refresh lol

[ariof]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jan 7th 2022 repeat?

Without 51° two days before

[dendrite]

If that's amped that's pretty sad. You can't even find a kink in the isohypses of the remnant s/w.

[Typhoon Tip]

okay I see it -

yeah that solution may (if not likely) just the NAM being the NAM.  But it's putting all the emphasis on the trailing S/W.  In fact, extrapolating that 84 hour frame would argue that's enough mechanical power there to trigger some sort of NJ model low response out of that thing alone.

But as far as the lead, it's all but completely damping it out of existence due to wave space/destructive interference

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't use the NAM for this system if the NAM was the last model available. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM would actually have the storm on the kicker wave....the front runner gets ground up so much that it isn't able to sweep away the baroclinic zone with it.

 

And I'm not even sure I'd trust that to survive with the big dog digging in on its heels.

[Typhoon Tip]

man - this is annoying.  It seems I keep seeing model renditions of this POS that match my discussion points, while they're not actually picking one of them and f'ing sticking with it.

I said this morning that this NAM extrapolation -type look would be possible. I gave it some 20 or 30% chance and then here we are, a model goes ahead and maps that out. 

But this has happened to all of us this week with this thing. It's all shot gun solutions still

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

And I'm not even sure I'd trust that to survive with the big dog digging in on its heels.

HAHA... Just said that exact same thing in my head.

It's like we're relaying destructive interference backward in the flow.

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Been almost two years since I grabbed a 4 spot lol. 

Was that why we stopped having GTGs?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I love this place. “It’s amped” “it’s flat” “it doesn’t even exist” “it’s the trailing wave”

 

[CoastalWx]

I noticed the euro sort of did that. Basically caught up with the dampening s/w. Almost became like a speed max type s/w but did curl up once it got to SNE. 
 

All the while though heights were falling. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Was that why we stopped having GTGs?

It’s because you never came.  

[Prismshine Productions]

man - this is annoying.  It seems I keep seeing renditions of this POS that match my discussion points, while not actually picking one of them and f'ing sticking with it.
I said this morning this that this NAM extrapolation -type look would be possible. I gave it some 20 or 30% chance and then here we are, a model goes ahead and maps that out. 
But this has happened to all of us this week with this thing. It's all shot gun solutions still

This SOB is playing Russian Roulette with every model, every run, *and* the ensemble suites, can't say the last time I have seen this play out because at this time frame something starts to stick out

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

It's important to look at these panels like Ginxy has here. The ensemble means may look nice, but don't tell the whole story. 

Like for Mount Tolland for instance, the EPS mean is about 5.5 inches. But the 25th/75th range is 1.5 to 8.5 inches. So some bigger members are dragging the mean up, while the floor still remains quite low. When you can start setting the floor higher, that's when you can start honking for a storm.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's important to look at these panels like Ginxy has here. The ensemble means may look nice, but don't tell the whole story. 

Like for Mount Tolland for instance, the EPS mean is about 5.5 inches. But the 25th/75th range is 1.5 to 8.5 inches. So some bigger members are dragging the mean up, while the floor still remains quite low. When you can start setting the floor higher, that's when you can start honking for a storm.

^ an aspect that is like radiation trying to get through lead helmet on top of Mount Tolland, no doubt

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha... looks like Brian and Will and I all keyed on the same aspect at the same time re the NAM

Which was done for fun.   at least I hope ...

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie has a decent look at 84h with the leading s/w. Looks like it holds enough mechanics together.