January 2024

[wdrag]

Monitoring Sunday 1/28: EPS is the most organized and consistent. It's axis has slipped a little to the south, painting this as an  elevations based wet snow of 4+" potential along I84. EPS confidence is 30-45%.  However, think we have a small less than 1" accum down to I95 with refreeze of slush Monday morning.

NYC prob for 1" is still very low, so no thread but monitoring trends the next day or so.  Attached EPS prob for 1" Sunday. It says be cautious about thinking 1" NYC CP. 

 

By the way: there was a little sleet mixed with the rain last night in the NYC-LI area. 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

Something can't be over that hasn't started at the coast. 

We already have a yanksfan! 

Genuine question here (bc I'm too tired and lazy to look up the stats).  How many below average months has Philly and NYC had respectively in the last 5 years?   

I dont care that much about below or above avg, let's get more sunny days in here!  NASA needs to invent a device to suck up clouds and send them to another planet or to the moon

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

Everyone gets the weenie emoji. It’s a sign of love…stick around…

Except that pheasants have actually vanished from the Poconos because of overhunting.  The last time I saw one was back in the 90s.

[MJO812]

I guess no one posted the overnight euro for this weekend storm

[MJO812]

The trend for the weekend storm has hern flatter.

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I guess no one posted the overnight euro for this weekend storm

I guess you missed Walt’s post about the Euro right above this. Still a nothing event for snow in the NYC metro

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I guess you missed Walt’s post about the Euro right above this. Still a nothing event for snow in the NYC metro

One eye open

Mayne a chance

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh wow a few barely below normal months against the warmest 30 year averages vs an infinite number of top 5-10 warmest months over past decade 

You really got us with that one. 

Yeah, we are similar to BHO which has had 52 top 10 warmest months to only top 10 coldest since 2010. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The trend for the weekend storm has hern flatter.

Airmass is very poor. You'd need a strong dynamic system to pull in colder air. 

Maybe a rain/snow mix towards the end, no accumulation 

[SnoSki14]

Not surprised to see models back off the torch for the northeast to start Feb. 

MJO 6/7 is not warm for us in a Nino for Feb. 7 is actually a colder signal. Still think we average slightly above normal but no 60s & 70s like some thought.

Even 50s may be difficult 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not surprised to see models back off the torch for the northeast to start Feb. 

MJO 6/7 is not warm for us in a Nino for Feb. 7 is actually a colder signal. Still think we average slightly above normal but no 60s & 70s like some thought.

Even 50s may be difficult 

It’s the same pattern we had in December to start February with the warmest departures over the Upper Midwest and Canada. 
 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Monitoring Sunday 1/28: EPS is the most organized and consistent. It's axis has slipped a little to the south, painting this as an  elevations based wet snow of 4+" potential along I84. EPS confidence is 30-45%.  However, think we have a small less than 1" accum down to I95 with refreeze of slush Monday morning.

NYC prob for 1" is still very low, so no thread but monitoring trends the next day or so.  Attached EPS prob for 1" Sunday. It says be cautious about thinking 1" NYC CP. 

 

By the way: there was a little sleet mixed with the rain last night in the NYC-LI area. 

Yup I had some sleet when I took the dog out around 11pm.

[bluewave]

The best chance NYC may have to get to 10” on the season is if we can get over to phase 8 by mid-February. The VP anomaly charts are actually similar to the RMMs. But this is no guarantee if the MJO get can’t get past 7 with so much SST warmth near the Dateline. Plus we made it to 8 last March and the big event occurred in the interior and disappointed the coast. 
 

 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The best chance NYC may have to get to 10” on the season is if we can get over to phase 8 by mid-February. The VP anomaly charts are actually similar to the RMMs. But this is no guarantee if the MJO get can’t get past 7 with so much SST warmth near the Dateline. Plus we made it to 8 last March and the big event occurred in the interior and disappointed the coast. 
 

 

Real good question, the models are showing it getting in phase 8 President’s Day weekend but is it real or just another false alarm like we’ve seen the past few years? You’re right about the furnace SSTs in phase 7, does it stall out there? We won’t know for sure until we get into February 

[Allsnow]

The interior had a big event in March? I don’t remember 

[MJO812]

 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The interior had a big event in March? I don’t remember 

Last year?  Yes-Western MA had close to 2 feet-we had white rain here

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Last year?  Yes-Western MA had close to 2 feet-we had white rain here

When was this? 
 

Was this the event we had hours of moderate snow but nothing stuck to the ground? 

[Allsnow]

Euro keeping us in the 40’s now for Friday bleh 

[wdrag]

56 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yup I had some sleet when I took the dog out around 11pm.

Thank you.  Moving forward now...

 

I will thread Sunday-Sunday night sometime this evening around 9PM (grandkids).  Increasing chances of 1/2-2" NYC-LI and for about 4+ nw NJ-I84 corridor.  Not major but 850 low and increasing ne 850 MB Jet by 06z/Monday makes this a favorable outcome.   Jut want a look at 12z ENS... no doubt in my mind at least a bit of snow coming to NYC and shovel able WET snow nw NJ-CT with initial melting but surface CAA makes this a candidate for deteriorating untreated pavement conditions Sunday evening -night.

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

When was this? 
 

Was this the event we had hours of moderate snow but nothing stuck to the ground? 

yeah it was around March 10th or so.   It was 33-34 in most of the area here with white rain or minor accums on the grass-inland and elevated areas got crushed

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah it was around March 10th or so.   It was 33-34 in most of the area here with white rain or minor accums on the grass-inland and elevated areas got crushed

Gotcha. @bluewave why was is to warm if we were in p8? Just too late in the season

[gravitylover]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah it was around March 10th or so.   It was 33-34 in most of the area here with white rain or minor accums on the grass-inland and elevated areas got crushed

I dunno about crushed but it was the only storm that gave me more than 6" last year, I think I got 9". blah 

[NittanyWx]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh wow a few barely below normal months against the warmest 30 year averages vs an infinite number of top 5-10 warmest months over past decade 

You really got us with that one. 

This is the warmest winter on record nationally Dec 1 to date (total HDD).

[weatherpruf]

10 hours ago, NCPOW said:

Beautiful GSP. I miss the hell out of mine. 

I'm a poodle guy myself. Don't laugh; they are the smartest dogs out there and you will forget you are dealing with a dog, that's how uncanny they are. "Poodle" means puddle in German; they were bred to retrieve birds from water, hence the funky haircuts. Neighbor had two magnificent long hair German Shephards, they were always getting out and drinking from my koi ( well now just goldfish; got tired of feeding the herons expensive fish ) pond. They'd knock you down and lick you to death.

[NittanyWx]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Real good question, the models are showing it getting in phase 8 President’s Day weekend but is it real or just another false alarm like we’ve seen the past few years? You’re right about the furnace SSTs in phase 7, does it stall out there? We won’t know for sure until we get into February 

The VP signal for the MJO was and is a clear P-8-1 in Dec and it failed to produce expected results for reason's we've outlined in this forum in the past.  A question I'm asking myself is whether the SPV/TPV decoupling actually allows wave breaking to do it's thing via jet retraction mid month.  Think it's possible, but not yet totally sold on it.

 

I still don't think we should be using wheeler plots as any sort of predictive basis for snow forecasting in this region...

 

Your Hovmoller diagrams get you a much cleaner and disaggregated picture of the things that you would consider to matter from the tropical forcing perspective anyway.

[weatherpruf]

9 hours ago, George001 said:

We have a decent chance at getting a big nina next year, after strong or super ninos Ninas often follow the year after, and often those Ninas gain a lot of strength. A good example is the 2010-2011 La Niña event. It came off a strong nino, and this Nina developed into one of the strongest La Niña events in history. That combination of a strong blocking, a strong La Niña pattern combined with an active southern jet (leftover from nino?) produced an one of the snowiest winters on record that year. That winter had 3 blizzards.

I think a lot of people will be concerned about the strength of this coming La Niña. But I won’t be. La nina is not as bad of an enso state to be in as a lot of people make it out to be.

I just remember 2007 La Nina being one deluge after another and maybe two sleet events in Feb. Sucked. It has sucked for a couple years now, though. Hope we can at least get a sleetfest going one more time before spring. 

[SACRUS]

 

39/39 /cloudy and light scattered showers. To the low 40s today with more light rain, Thu near or low 50s and same Friday. May touch upper 50s in some spots Sat.  Colder by Sunday as storms pulls through perhaps a mix for a brief period before more rain.  Storm allows trough into the northeast with a 2 day colder 1/29 - 1/31.  Feb overall warmer but trough near by or off the northeast coast with strong ridge into the MW/GL.  

 

 

[Allsnow]

Olr maps do have convection getting into 8 but this can change 

[NittanyWx]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Olr maps do have convection getting into 8 but this can change 

VP200, 850 u-wind and OLR all show convection and the expected forcing response eastward with a progressive MJO signal.  There really isn't much debate here as to the progressive nature of tropical forcing.

 

There is a lot of debate on whether this parlays into cold in the windows it's supposed to for early-mid Feb.  IO convection is shut off for the time being.