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Sunday, December 17 - Monday, December 18, 2023 Storm


weatherwiz
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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The FOUS numbers are tamed by 4 or 5 kts.  LGA went from 41 to 33, actually ...

Going to need convection for these higher end gusts to occur. And even then, those gusts would probably be rather localized unless we get a damn good line of convection to develop.

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t see how we tickle 60 here but we’re prepared if it does.

I don’t think you do either, but central and eastern CT (especially coastal areas obviously) are probably going to get real windy. 

Euro gone wild at 12z. Take 20% off those and we’re still talking 45-50kt gusts down there. 

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We could have sneaky severe potential in Connecticut, Massachusetts tomorrow I think. I mentioned it the other day in the other thread with those warm hydrostats punching up into the area, and the actual surface trough istill west of the area that can be interesting with all that mid upper level jet mechanics going on.  

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna have to have all 3 NWS offices up whole region to HWW . Better to do it with 4PM package than look silly and do it in the morning 

Still time to pull a November 1950? LOL But in all seriousness I'm curious what kind of enhanced warnings they would use if that magnitude storm happened today. 70 sustained in HFD, 80 sustained in BOS, gusts to 110 in Concord? I feel like a HWW wouldnt suffice...maybe like a PDS HWW or something?

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4 minutes ago, WJX231 said:

Still time to pull a November 1950? LOL But in all seriousness I'm curious what kind of enhanced warnings they would use if that magnitude storm happened today. 70 sustained in HFD, 80 sustained in BOS, gusts to 110 in Concord? I feel like a HWW wouldnt suffice...maybe like a PDS HWW or something?

They probably are going to wait until last minute to up to HWW. I noticed they’ve already upped the wind speeds in the advisory to HWW speeds. They are so slow to react even when it’s captain obvious. It really doesn’t matter. Beast incoming 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They probably are going to wait until last minute to up to HWW. I noticed they’ve already upped the wind speeds in the advisory to HWW speeds. They are so slow to react even when it’s captain obvious. 

Yeah I've noticed lately that they seem to be more conservative in general. But like even on the outer cape and islands the HWW only states "gusts up to 65". Usually they go 70 or higher in this type of event. Then again, I don't think that the guidance is as bullish with this one as it was with those other events. Still a solid event but probably not another 10/29/17 or 03/02/18.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Pretty notable how long the duration of potentially strong winds are around here. The LLJ almost pivots rather than sweeping through, so it's nearly all day the 18z HRRR is forecasting 45+ knots at PWM.

The degree of 3km CAPE being advertised by the HRRR is fairly eye opening. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They probably are going to wait until last minute to up to HWW. I noticed they’ve already upped the wind speeds in the advisory to HWW speeds. They are so slow to react even when it’s captain obvious. It really doesn’t matter. Beast incoming 

They didn't though.

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