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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion


The Iceman
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Just now, Blue Dream said:

Just got upgraded to a WSW for 5-6”. I don’t really see it but I hope it verifies!

That's where I'm at... I don't expect it to verify but I understand putting out the WSW as it could potentially verify. Better to be safe than sorry in these situations imo.

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for those who do not know:

 

1. Winter storm warnings were issued for those areas where the 5 in snowfall criteria for issuing the warning has been met in the models. Unfortunately Montgomery/Bucks  county were split down the middle with the existing WSW snowfall criteria levels for winter storm warnings. This is one scenario where me and the NOAA do not agree on.  One inch snow accumulation difference in a metropolitan area  of nearly 1-2 million people  like the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks county (more population than many states)  does not make sense whatsoever . I hope they revise the winter weather advisories to WSW warnings and issue one for the northern Montgomery/Bucks county and the LV, especially since they calling for 8 in in the point forecast for Macungie PA and the criteria is 6 in. This is one storm I would err and be cautious about because of the higher snow ration and colder temps and blowing snow.  There will be lots of accidents Friday night rush hour with drivers trying to beat the storm to ge to their destinations as many roads will be snow packed quickly

2. Blowing snow was also inserted into the forecast. Thank you Mt. Holly. This storm event will be discussed by all the posters and the media as being remembered for the blowing snow, frigid temps  and lower visibilities and not just for high snow accumulations. This is the type of storm the old folks like me really remember of  how winter should be and not just having the back breaking 20 inch snow events.

Macungie point forecast 

Tonight
A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
Snow. High near 28. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Friday Night
A chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday
Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Saturday Night
Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery.

 

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5 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

for those who do not know:

 

1. Winter storm warnings were issued for those areas where the 5 in snowfall criteria for issuing the warning has been met in the models. Unfortunately Montgomery/Bucks  county were split down the middle with the existing WSW snowfall criteria levels for winter storm warnings. This is one scenario where me and the NOAA do not agree on.  One inch snow accumulation difference in a metropolitan area  of nearly 1-2 million people  like the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks county (more population than many states)  does not make sense whatsoever . I hope they revise the winter weather advisories to WSW warnings and issue one for the northern Montgomery/Bucks county and the LV, especially since they calling for 8 in in the point forecast for Macungie PA and the criteria is 6 in. This is one storm I would err and be cautious about because of the higher snow ration and colder temps and blowing snow.  There will be lots of accidents Friday night rush hour with drivers trying to beat the storm to ge to their destinations as many roads will be snow packed quickly

2. Blowing snow was also inserted into the forecast. Thank you Mt. Holly. This storm event will be discussed by all the posters and the media as being remembered for the blowing snow, frigid temps  and lower visibilities and not just for high snow accumulations. This is the type of storm the old folks like me really remember of  how winter should be and not just having the back breaking 20 inch snow events.

Macungie point forecast 

Tonight
A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Friday
Snow. High near 28. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Friday Night
A chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday
Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Saturday Night
Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery.

 

Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models.

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From the most recent AFD

 

Quote
Bands of heavier snow may enhance the wet
bulb effect, resulting in colder surface temperatures and higher
liquid to snow ratios. This will result in locally higher snow
amounts. Overall, liquid to snow ratios will be on the order of 14:1
to 17:1, but could get as high as 20:1.

 

Straight powdah as they say up north. That would also explain the higher projected totals area wide than what some of the models are spitting out on the clown maps.

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1 minute ago, MGorse said:

Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models.

Where is the NWS coming up with these 6-7” forecasts in monmouth and ocean county? Every piece of modeling indicates 2” maybe abs have been getting drier?

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 

Straight powdah as they say up north. That would also explain the higher projected totals area wide than what some of the models are spitting out on the clown maps.

But we aren't going to be that frigid. I could see 12:1 ratios but most of us are seeing lighter returns until you get to the Philly area. 

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12 minutes ago, Djdude2122 said:

But we aren't going to be that frigid. I could see 12:1 ratios but most of us are seeing lighter returns until you get to the Philly area. 

Ah, so you know more than professional meteorologists.  Got it.  Thanks.

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1 minute ago, Djdude2122 said:

wow really.. I deal with middle schoolers all day. I don't need it here. Thought this was a weather CHAT. 

It’s currently 32 at my house with a DP of 18.  Ho read up on wet bulbing in storms like this one.  You might learn something 

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Nice little band of snow entering eastern PA. Via the radar scope app there isn't anything reaching the ground unless you are in western PA. That catchup wave in Iowa looks healthy. Hoping this over performs. My over/under in Reading is 3". Cheers guys.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

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29 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models.

I misspoke sorry. But the idea of splitting three very urbanized counties with one inch snowfall differences for issuing WSW needs to be immediately rethought. Its been 5+ years since this new criteria was adopted and there has been  significant population increases  along with increased dependency on traveling between the  LV,  Bucks and Montgomery counties and even into the Poconos. These areas are quickly becoming very interdependent as far as workplace, housing and recreation,  especially with  all of the warehouses being built in the LV and Poconos. WE are the one of the fastest growing urbanized areas in the entire country and number one  in the state.  The current expansion of the NE turnpike is a fine example of what I am talking about.  I hope MT Holly sits down after this winter season and considers lowering the WSW criteria to 5 inches all the way to the Poconos. As the old timer  travelers advisories were once issued when snowfall was over four inches. That snowfall criteria should have been maintained for winter storm warnings and should have never been changed IMHO. The four inch criteria was set in place as the point when it became harder for snow plow drivers to clear the roads in only one pass.  The problem still exists today.   

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11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Signs of life in here and peeps getting chippy, I like it

It's like the return of the living dead

I am out see you for Hurricane Tracking in August! 

Before I go 29.7f humidity 39% dewpoint 9f pressure 29.92 steady cloudy snowfall so far 0.00" 

My bar for tomorrow is 4.3" here in Media Delaware County.  Start time 4:57 am.

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