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Central PA Winter 23/24


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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

A saw that, quite the disparity. I assume MDT never broke out of the clouds? Whereas we had some peaks of sun early on down this way. I’m stuck at 49 as well, with a little over a third of an inch. Yuck indeed. 

Only time the sun popped out was very briefly around 330. 

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We have 2 hanging baskets of miniature Petunia plants. There not in the best shape. But they are still blooming in December. They have endured numerous frosts and temps as low as 17 degrees. I never seen an annual do this before. All the other annuals succumbed to the frost. This must be one hardy species. Also the grass is still green here too!

 

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Some rain totals across the county since midnight - Glenmoore 0.89" / East Nantmeal Twp, 0.53" / Atglen 0.43" / Warwick Twp. 0.48" / West Brandywine Twp. 0.41"
Most of the steady rain. Cloudy day with temperatures only rising a couple degrees from the near 50 degrees we are currently at across much of the area. We should have temps near normal for much of the week before rising a bit above normal by next weekend before colder again for next week. There is a slight chance of some snow flurries on Tuesday night but otherwise a mainly dry week.
Records for today: High 69 (1998) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 1.12" (1905) / Snow 5.2" (1907)
image.png.306e9b263573065e3d3cf1ce15b67f3e.png
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Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year.
Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago?
So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy!image.thumb.png.345b58ce87a81d052eead3f08a7144a9.png
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that map to me is laughable this far out. sat was said to be 60 to mid 60s and we didnt make it past 49. the forecast even for sat morning was 63 mostly sunny skies. they didnt even update it to consider the foggy drizzle keeping the temps down. so after the last few years with models giving us happy land outcomes and it not happening. this is all a nice dream and even some how we did got this snow. we all know it wouldnt stick around for a white christmas. it always manages to warm up and all melt even if we have 7 days till christmas. ill keep an eye on this but I doubt any thing will happen. watch it go from a coastal to a lake runner.

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Today's weekly Eps not only held serve with a trough in the east starting Christmas, but the trough is deeper and temps colder! Normal precip for the last 3 of the 6 week forecast period.

Last Christmas was the only real cold period of the entire season.   Ironic if it gets extremely cold again this year.   We had one pipe burst (external spigot which routes through the garages.)  

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6 hours ago, ChescoWx said:
Some rain totals across the county since midnight - Glenmoore 0.89" / East Nantmeal Twp, 0.53" / Atglen 0.43" / Warwick Twp. 0.48" / West Brandywine Twp. 0.41"
Most of the steady rain. Cloudy day with temperatures only rising a couple degrees from the near 50 degrees we are currently at across much of the area. We should have temps near normal for much of the week before rising a bit above normal by next weekend before colder again for next week. There is a slight chance of some snow flurries on Tuesday night but otherwise a mainly dry week.
Records for today: High 69 (1998) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 1.12" (1905) / Snow 5.2" (1907)
image.png.306e9b263573065e3d3cf1ce15b67f3e.png

Got the weather station up and running at my place on Friday. Had a 25.1 mph gust today with the thundershowers, which I think is pretty good for a home station.

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Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year. Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago? So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy!image.thumb.png.345b58ce87a81d052eead3f08a7144a9.png
You should at monthly nao, ao, enso values by month for those 20 years you targeted. See the progressions and do a 3-6 month trailing evaluation to find a correlation coefficient to the previous 6 months. Even than I think the correlation to snow on a local basis is incredibly low. If you used snowfall on a much larger geographic basis it would be higher, but with how localized storms can be it's like a monkey throwing darts. We can but root for chances

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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