canderson Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: A saw that, quite the disparity. I assume MDT never broke out of the clouds? Whereas we had some peaks of sun early on down this way. I’m stuck at 49 as well, with a little over a third of an inch. Yuck indeed. Only time the sun popped out was very briefly around 330. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 We have 2 hanging baskets of miniature Petunia plants. There not in the best shape. But they are still blooming in December. They have endured numerous frosts and temps as low as 17 degrees. I never seen an annual do this before. All the other annuals succumbed to the frost. This must be one hardy species. Also the grass is still green here too! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Some rain totals across the county since midnight - Glenmoore 0.89" / East Nantmeal Twp, 0.53" / Atglen 0.43" / Warwick Twp. 0.48" / West Brandywine Twp. 0.41" Most of the steady rain. Cloudy day with temperatures only rising a couple degrees from the near 50 degrees we are currently at across much of the area. We should have temps near normal for much of the week before rising a bit above normal by next weekend before colder again for next week. There is a slight chance of some snow flurries on Tuesday night but otherwise a mainly dry week. Records for today: High 69 (1998) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 1.12" (1905) / Snow 5.2" (1907) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Some rain totals across places outside the State College CWA since midnight - Glenmoore 0.89" / East Nantmeal Twp, 0.53" / Atglen 0.43" / Warwick Twp. 0.48" / West Brandywine Twp. 0.41" Who gives a shit?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Who gives a shit?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using TapatalkMe and posseSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Hopefully this thread doesn’t get derailed again… It’s actually a valuable & quality post! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 @candersongood luck to your Longhorns! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Late nooners. 48 and in the clouds at The Masland Mansion, Kings Gap State Park. Christmas Open House. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year. Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago? So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 that map to me is laughable this far out. sat was said to be 60 to mid 60s and we didnt make it past 49. the forecast even for sat morning was 63 mostly sunny skies. they didnt even update it to consider the foggy drizzle keeping the temps down. so after the last few years with models giving us happy land outcomes and it not happening. this is all a nice dream and even some how we did got this snow. we all know it wouldnt stick around for a white christmas. it always manages to warm up and all melt even if we have 7 days till christmas. ill keep an eye on this but I doubt any thing will happen. watch it go from a coastal to a lake runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Ladies & Gentlemen, he’s back….. !!! Hopefully, you day isn’t Ruined by this rain… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 2 hours ago, paweather said: @candersongood luck to your Longhorns! Thanks. My December just got even more busy. London, Amsterdam, Rehoboth and now NOLA for New Years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Thanks. My December just got even more busy. London, Amsterdam, Rehoboth and now NOLA for New Years! That’s insane. Must not have kids…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Today's weekly Eps not only held serve with a trough in the east starting Christmas, but the trough is deeper and temps colder! Normal precip for the last 3 of the 6 week forecast period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, anotherman said: That’s insane. Must not have kids…. Nope! DINK 4 life lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 56 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Ladies & Gentlemen, he’s back….. !!! Hopefully, you day isn’t Ruined by this rain… you know I have a point tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 45 minutes ago, Ruin said: you know I have a point tho Welcome back! Here’s to a great Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Welcome back! Here’s to a great Winter! Hope so tho christmas means less deaths in the family 2 years ago really made the holiday lonely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Today's weekly Eps not only held serve with a trough in the east starting Christmas, but the trough is deeper and temps colder! Normal precip for the last 3 of the 6 week forecast period. Last Christmas was the only real cold period of the entire season. Ironic if it gets extremely cold again this year. We had one pipe burst (external spigot which routes through the garages.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Today was as a terrible winter day, IMO. 50's all day, fog, clouds...cannot enjoy cold or warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 6 hours ago, ChescoWx said: Some rain totals across the county since midnight - Glenmoore 0.89" / East Nantmeal Twp, 0.53" / Atglen 0.43" / Warwick Twp. 0.48" / West Brandywine Twp. 0.41" Most of the steady rain. Cloudy day with temperatures only rising a couple degrees from the near 50 degrees we are currently at across much of the area. We should have temps near normal for much of the week before rising a bit above normal by next weekend before colder again for next week. There is a slight chance of some snow flurries on Tuesday night but otherwise a mainly dry week. Records for today: High 69 (1998) / Low 9 (1976) / Rain 1.12" (1905) / Snow 5.2" (1907) Got the weather station up and running at my place on Friday. Had a 25.1 mph gust today with the thundershowers, which I think is pretty good for a home station. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said: Chattanooga Choo-Choo issues. When is the last time we had a low sweep from the Low Miss Valley and straith us with 4-8"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Since we are starting the first winter month I thought I would give you my annual attempt at a winter forecast for Chester County PA. Take this for what it is worth as the last 3 years I have done this have been totally and completely wrong! I will show you my methodology for the forecast below. You will see below that the fall season (September thru November) here in Chester County has overall since the 1890's shown a clear cooling pattern...however, during our current warming cycle since 1970 we have seen a clear warming pattern. Overall this Fall has averaged 54.9 degrees which is the 50th warmest Fall since 1894. I decided to use the surrounding 20 fall seasons using from the 30th warmest to the 70th warmest fall average temperatures. I compared those to the upcoming winter and came up with the following forecast base on our fall temperatures this year. Average Temperature will be 32.1 degrees this is 0.9 degrees below our 30 year average. Total snowfall will be between 28" to 37" our 30 year average is 36.3" in the county. I put a range here as the ranges for the analog years I used go from the 86.6" of snow we received in 2009-10 to as little as the 2.7" from just last year. For your coffee table conversation the annual average snowfall for Chicago IL is only a couple inches more than Chesco at 38"....who knew Chesco was almost as snowy as Chicago? So there it is! What do you think? How wrong will I be this year? Enjoy! You should at monthly nao, ao, enso values by month for those 20 years you targeted. See the progressions and do a 3-6 month trailing evaluation to find a correlation coefficient to the previous 6 months. Even than I think the correlation to snow on a local basis is incredibly low. If you used snowfall on a much larger geographic basis it would be higher, but with how localized storms can be it's like a monkey throwing darts. We can but root for chancesSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 JB says Christmas and New Years will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 30 minutes ago, paweather said: JB says Christmas and New Years will be rocking. So it’ll be in the mid 60s and sunny. Got it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 JB says Christmas and New Years will be rocking.You mean ‘The American Storm?’ What a joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, canderson said: So it’ll be in the mid 60s and sunny. Got it! Can’t wait to wear shorts, Huh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, anotherman said: You mean ‘The American Storm?’ What a joke. Come on man JB is always right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 Come on man JB is always right The only time he’s right is when it’s cold and snowy since that is his perpetual call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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