Central PA Winter 23/24

[ChescoWx]

9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I think you very well know my thoughts probably, haha. For years I wondered about these magical winters my parents and their friends all spoke about when younger. Than I found out they were all born between 1956-1960, then stumbled upon just how weird and crazy the 1960s were in regard to snow. The closest we were to something so strange was rainfall in 2011 with 73" and 2018 with 67" as compared to previous high of 59" due to angels in 1972. But for that comparison to hold true the totals would have had to be 89" and 82" with 2 more years in the 2010's with 60"+ of rain. For a decade the 1960s were a once in 50 to 100 decade (so 500 to 1000 years). People who had there childhood in the 60's have such a distorted view of snow.

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The problem today is folks who grew up in the 2000's and 2010's think we live in an area that gets a lot of snow....the cyclical nature will support a lot of folks belief that with the latest climate cycle it just does not snow like it did when they were younger....

[Jns2183]

The problem today is folks who grew up in the 2000's and 2010's think we live in an area that gets a lot of snow....the cyclical nature will support a lot of folks belief that with the latest climate cycle it just does not snow like it did when they were younger....

Didn't Philly average more snow than state college for the 2010 decade. I remember some ridiculous statistic like that.

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[TimB]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Agreed but this isn't even your areas subforum so do you honestly think the people in this thread wanna hear even more bitching and complaining?

True, forgot we have a thread for that specific purpose. My bad.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Didn't Philly average more snow than state college for the 2010 decade. I remember some ridiculous statistic like that.

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Not sure of what years (but I'm sure some of the data mongers have it).  Yes, there were a few years when us SE'rs had notably more snow than some true CTP locals.  Early look was for this year to potentially be one of em.  I'm not throwing any towels whatsoever, but as the pattern looks to get better, cold is still taking some time.  I've learned a long time ago that we need to get the pattern right before any digi snowmaps start to mean much.  Still look to be heading in a better direction for that anyways.   Weather insnt a light switch, and patience is still needed.  If 2 weeks from now were still waiting....then I'll start to worry a bit more.

 

[Jns2183]

Not sure of what years (but I'm sure some of the data mongers have it).  Yes, there were a few years when us SE'rs had notably more snow than some true CTP locals.  Early look was for this year to potentially be one of em.  I'm not throwing any towels whatsoever, but as the pattern looks to get better, cold is still taking some time.  I've learned a long time ago that we need to get the pattern right before any digi snowmaps start to mean much.  Still look to be heading in a better direction for that anyways.   Weather insnt a light switch, and patience is still needed.  If 2 weeks from now were still waiting....then I'll start to worry a bit more.
 

Bad snow streaks seem to end on a boom at least.

Closest I found was 5 year snow ending 12/31/2014

State College 190
Philly 176
Harrisburg 142

Still that's ridiculous

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[MAG5035]

43 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Didn't Philly average more snow than state college for the 2010 decade. I remember some ridiculous statistic like that.

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Yes and no. Doing 10/11 to 19/20 Philly averaged about 24” a season to UNV’s 34ish. 24” is about PHL’s 30 year avg and 34 is about 10” less than UNV’s 30 year avg. So if you were going off of departure from the station’s average, then  yea PHL had a better decade. I’m sure the average deviates some whatever you consider for the 2010 decade. If you went for the true decade you’d be splitting winters (starting Jan ‘10 and ending Dec ‘20). 

The big takeaway though is that PHL outright outsnowed UNV on what would be considered the snowiest winters of that decade.. and I’ll throw 2009-2010 in there. 2009-2010 (78” to 49.1”), 2010-2011 (44 to 38.4”), and 2013-2014 (68” to 51.8).

They also outsnowed UNV off the one hit wonder 2015-2016 season (27.5” to 17.9”). If anyone could’ve made it out of Harrisburg the 80 miles or so up 322 on Jan 24,2016 you would’ve found that State College had a 2-4” snowfall depending on what end of town you were. 

[Jns2183]

Yes and no. Doing 10/11 to 19/20 Philly averaged about 24” a season to UNV’s 34ish. 24” is about PHL’s 30 year avg and 34 is about 10” less than UNV’s 30 year avg. So if you were going off of departure from the station’s average, then  yea PHL had a better decade. I’m sure the average deviates some whatever you consider for the 2010 decade. If you went for the true decade you’d be splitting winters (starting Jan ‘10 and ending Dec ‘20). 
The big takeaway though is that PHL outright outsnowed UNV on what would be considered the snowiest winters of that decade.. and I’ll throw 2009-2010 in there. 2009-2010 (78” to 49.1”), 2010-2011 (44 to 38.4”), and 2013-2014 (68” to 51.8).
They also outsnowed UNV off the one hit wonder 2015-2016 season (27.5” to 17.9”). If anyone could’ve made it out of Harrisburg the 80 miles or so up 322 on Jan 24,2016 you would’ve found that State College had a 2-4” snowfall depending on what end of town you were. 

That one hit wonder takes the cake for me. Us laughing at the nam a few days prior for it's insanity only to be correct. The SREFS snowfall curve going exponential in the 36 hours beforehand which supported the NAM fantasy amounts. The local weather stations being off 16"-30" a day before. And mostly that route 81 deathband that setup stationary for 6-10 hours. I doubt I will have another storm like it in my life. To top it off it was the only snow of the season.

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[Jns2183]

The 1960s averaged 8 storms of 3" plus per year for the decade, but never saw a storm with more than 18"

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[mahantango#1]

[Jns2183]

New rainfall map from 630pm forward

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[Blizzard of 93]

Happy Hour GFS delivered again for most of PA near the end of the run.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 16 day run ends cold as well….

[Ruin]

abc27 not buying the idea of any cold 

[mahantango#1]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
632 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2023

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-281145-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
632 AM EST Wed Dec 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of rain could become heavy at times this afternoon and
evening with localized rainfall totals approaching 2 inches. Isolated
flooding of poor drainage areas is possible as a result of sharp
rises on smaller streams and creeks.

[Blizzard of 93]

It’s just a matter of time until we are tracking specific threats in early January.
The week 2 looks on all 3 of the ensembles continue to show ridging up top in the Arctic & Greenland and then a broad trough from coast to coast that should give us chances of Winter storms.

[Bubbler86]

6 hours ago, Ruin said:

abc27 not buying the idea of any cold 

Not much GFS support for BN temps until the second week of Jan now.   

[Blizzard of 93]

45 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not much GFS support for BN temps until the second week of Jan now.   

Normal in January works just fine.

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Normal in January works just fine.

Those temps he posted are not far from the normal as to highs for Sun and Mon (normal is 40).   If his angle was snow, he needs below normal whether one calls it cold or not.    Normal high on Jan 15th is 38. 

[TimB]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those temps he posted are not far from the normal as to highs for Sun and Mon (normal is 40).   If his angle was snow, he needs below normal whether one calls it cold or not.    Normal high on Jan 15th is 38. 

I do understand what Blizz means on that, tho. Sure, you can’t really get accumulating snow most of the time when the temp is 38, but if the normals are, say, 38/24, a day that is 33/29 is exactly normal and you can get accumulating snow on that day.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

44 here with .19” of rain thus far. 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, TimB said:

I do understand what Blizz means on that, tho. Sure, you can’t really get accumulating snow most of the time when the temp is 38, but if the normals are, say, 38/24, a day that is 33/29 is exactly normal and you can get accumulating snow on that day.

Sure, but if Ruin wants something a lot colder than 42 then that was not being shown until later in January.  But agree that normal is not shabby and chances of snow.

 

Verbatim on the 6Z, the highs do not stay in the 30's at MDT any day until January 6th which pretty much matches what many have been talking about.  There has not been much support recently for BN level cold the first few days of Jan. 

[NEPA MT TOP]

After reading the comments and predictions on here living and dying by each model run that they are gospel, an old saying comes to mind, a little knowledge is dangerous. Those on here who look at a model or some forecast and proclaim this is correct; obviously don't know what they are doing. There are so many aspects around the globe affecting the wweather, you need to find out how they affect weather later on.

[paweather]

The infamous Bob Chill had some good comments about the upcoming pattern change. 

[TimB]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Sure, but if Ruin wants something a lot colder than 42 then that was not being shown until later in January.  But agree that normal is not shabby and chances of snow.

 

Verbatim on the 6Z, the highs do not stay in the 30's at MDT any day until January 6th which pretty much matches what many have been talking about.  There has not been much support recently for BN level cold the first few days of Jan. 

Agree that delayed but not denied is probably the best hope here. 

[Atomixwx]

Agree that delayed but not denied is probably the best hope here. 

But it's been the narrative for the last three years. If the global setup were the same, it'd make more sense.

As we all know, it isn't. I'm having a hard time keeping hope alive.

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[TimB]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

But it's been the narrative for the last three years. If the global setup were the same, it'd make more sense.

As we all know, it isn't. I'm having a hard time keeping hope alive.

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You know what I’d place my money on if I had to bet between delayed and denied but I’m not going to continue flooding this place with negativity.

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, TimB said:

You know what I’d place my money on if I had to bet between delayed and denied but I’m not going to continue flooding this place with negativity.

Thank you and God Bless!

[ChescoWx]

Had a FB poster tell me they feel snow cover lasted longer "back in the day" So what are the top 20 seasons and days with consecutive snow cover? Of note but not surprisingly during our current snowier cycle - 7 of the top 20 snow cover stretches have happened since 2000.

[Jns2183]

Had a FB poster tell me they feel snow cover lasted longer "back in the day" So what are the top 20 seasons and days with consecutive snow cover? Of note but not surprisingly during our current snowier cycle - 7 of the top 20 snow cover stretches have happened since 2000.

Here's Harrisburg

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[TimB]

6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Here's Harrisburg

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No need to bring actual facts and statistics to the discussion, personal observations and PWS data spliced into a threaded record will always supersede observations at a first order climate site.