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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the thing Rev, we all view the world through our own lenses/perspectives. We just walked out of an 8 day snow covered stretch mostly below freezing with 6-12" of snowfall in one week. Full coverage of excellent sledding and hiking snow for an entire week+ and the scenery was outstanding. That simply doesn't happen here often at all and that's a hard fact. It was a remarkable winter week in any winter. And what you are criticizing is people enjoying and being satisfied with a rare and beautiful  anomalous week of winter weather.

You obviously hated it and and nearly every post you make is a glass half empty. And you really want people to see it your way. Majority of people are actually optimistic on the balance and can be satisfied with the small things in life. Instead of criticizing that, maybe.... maybe consider trying to add some of that into your life. Satisfaction and happiness is a free will choice that we all make every single day. It's free, harmless, and the payoff is huge. 

 

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4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Satisfaction and happiness is a free will choice that we all make every single day. It's free, harmless, and the payoff is huge. 

I have to push back on this thought a little.  It is my hypothesis based on observations and my own experiences that some people are just intrinsically predisposed to positivity or negativity to varying degrees.  I am on the negative side.  I have been ever since I was little.  I didn't make a decision to be that way.  I can't just make it go away by choosing it.  I can fight it, and I do, but it is a lifelong struggle.  Sometimes I am successful.  Often I am not.  I suspect many others are the same way. 

I think it's fair to hope that people who have an easier time being positive have some awareness and consideration for those for whom it is not so easy.  At the same time, people who KNOW they are negative need to try and avoid bringing others down with it, because that is not fair either.  

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7 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I guess what I am saying is, the people who COMPLAIN ABOUT THE COMPLAINERS are actually far worse than the complainers themselves.

I gotta disagree with you on this one.  The people who constantly complain on this forum are much worse than the people who object to it.

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8 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I am not making the argument that last week wasn't good and that people shouldn't have enjoyed it. I enjoyed it, and made tons of positives posts on it. Go back and look. I was nothing but positive.

I am simply saying that there is nothing wrong with being frustrated with going back to a blow torch pattern right after; A shut the blinds pattern, and people trying to claim we are now in fact "spoiled" and we should "know our climo" when in fact we are well below average.

I guess what I am saying in, the people who COMPLAIN ABOUT THE COMPLAINERS are actually far worse than the complainers themselves.

Also- this is the panic room. Find me one, just one post this year where I complained in the model thread. It doesn't exist.

I feel ya Rev. The days when General Washington lead the troops across the frozen Chesapeake and surprised the Brits in Delaware  are gone.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and to think people are punting the rest of the winter. fucking insane

gotta suck to be that jaded

Consider the reason why people are jaded, man. The last 7 years ring a bell? I don't get why folks are so perplexed about why some are the way they are. You fail that many times (and in different ways) in a seven year period...you tell me...Why is it hard to understand why somebody would be jaded?

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

I gotta disagree with you on this one.  The people who constantly complain on this forum are much worse than the people who object to it.

the complaining is ridiculous.  Unless folks live in the far western parts of our region (Davis, Canaan, Deep Creek,etc), expecting reliable snowfall from winter to winter isn't a thing around here.  The standard deviation of annual snowfall from most of our climate sites has to be off the charts.

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2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the complaining is ridiculous.  Unless folks live in the far western parts of our region (Davis, Canaan, Deep Creek,etc), expecting reliable snowfall from winter to winter isn't a thing around here.  The standard deviation of annual snowfall from most of our climate sites has to be off the charts.

Last 7 years: Least snowiest years in our history. What one could reasonably expect in our city climo wasn't even met. I don't get why people don't understand that...this is the worst stretch in many of our lifetimes. I'm 33 and have never gone 7 years without getting at leasd one footer, or a period with two less than 2-inch winters in a three year span. This is not what I consider the "normal" inconsistent snowfall. That 7 year period has felt worse to me.

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21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Last 7 years: Least snowiest years in our history. What one could reasonably expect in our city climo wasn't even met. I don't get why people don't understand that...this is the worst stretch in many of our lifetimes. I'm 33 and have never gone 7 years without getting at leasd one footer, or a period with two less than 2-inch winters in a three year span. This is not what I consider the "normal" inconsistent snowfall. That 7 year period has felt worse to me.

 

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

People need to be more compassionate given the unprecedented stretch we've been through. There is no arguing how bad it's been. So what is all this "Ugghhh why are people complaining???" Uh...hello? Have you seen the dang BWI/DCA snow totals lately?

It's not really that people "don't understand that" (in relation to the awful 7 year stretch of snow, or lack thereof!).  It's that probably a lot of people don't need to keep hearing that if we don't score big with some large amount of snow in DC/Balt in a Nino year that we "should" do so, then we're doomed and will suck even more...even if we have a GOOD winter this year in the end.  I posted something along these lines in the medium range thread a short while ago.  I get the overall long term implications, or potential implications.  But we don't need to hear it pounded at us over and over and over again, or how this pattern looks great but here's how we can really fail despite that, etc.  Let's just at least for the most part focus on this winter for what it is and how it goes.  OK, so if we don't "win" in a huge 63-3 UGA/FSU type Orange Bowl blowout, but if we win like a 34-13 Michigan CFP championship, are we a failure?  Seriously, I'll worry about next winter when it gets closer, same with the winters after that.  Yes, I get that it's been God-awful for years and I get that this makes any snow lover nervous about any future prospects.  But it can also sap any fun or enjoyment if we get some good storms this year if we're going to constantly worry that "it's not enough to offset the past 7!!!"'

ETA:  I got literally 0.5" snow in the pre-dawn hours on Feb. 1 last year that was gone by 10AM.  We had a ridiculously warm Jan-Feb last year with almost literally zero tracking that was worthwhile all winter.  The only other snow I saw outside that half inch was some snow TV for a couple of hours near the end of Feb. that didn't stick.  This year I've seen 9.5" thus far along with a rather nice cold week and snow cover for a week.  Last year, the only cold was like 2 days around Christmas and zero snow cover for more than 2 hours.  Yeah I know, beating last year is a low bar.  But let's try to take this winter for what we can get instead of trying to pigeon-hole it into something that it SHOULD be or it's a failure even if it's not.

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13 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

People need to be more compassionate given the unprecedented stretch we've been through. There is no arguing how bad it's been. So what is all this "Ugghhh why are people complaining???" Uh...hello? Have you seen the dang BWI/DCA snow totals lately?

IMBY game lad. Just the way it is, and will always be here. Plenty of disparity across our region since 2016. I traveled an hour to experience 2 great beach snowstorms(one a blizzard), then stayed home in Jan 22 for 3 warning criteria events. Will probably suck here for a few upcoming winters, while your area does better. I will probably have to travel to get snow. How it goes in the MA outside of owning a place in the western highlands. Move, be willing to travel, or accept and enjoy what you get at home.

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4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

But it can also sap any fun or enjoyment if we get some good storms this year if we're going to constantly worry that "it's not enough to offset the past 7!!!"

Now this part here...for me, it's not necessarily about "offsetting" the past 7. Those are past now. But it's the fact that if we don't see a MECS or HECS this season, we may be waiting even longer than the 8 years we already have been. And overall, we may be waiting longer for an above average season if we don't get it here. I know I don't want to have to wait through two more ninas and who knows what else...so there is more worry than usual about this year producing...because there is a high degree of uncertainty beyond this year.

I get what you're saying about focusing on the here and now...I certainly did that last week. I enjoyed the heck out of those 8-9" (even made a snow angel...despite the fact that I forgot to move my legs...been awhile so I'm rusty :lol:).

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24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Last 7 years: Least snowiest years in our history. What one could reasonably expect in our city climo wasn't even met. I don't get why people don't understand that...this is the worst stretch in many of our lifetimes. I'm 33 and have never gone 7 years without getting at leasd one footer, or a period with two less than 2-inch winters in a three year span. This is not what I consider the "normal" inconsistent snowfall. That 7 year period has felt worse to me.

I mean we were already on the edge of the "reliable snow zone" - mean temps tick up a degree or two, and boom, suddenly we are south of it.  I get it - it sucks.  My kids won't get to experience the same storms that I did as a kid if we live here.  But if you are living in the Mid Atlantic and expecting a snowy climate - it's just not.  DCA's annual mean temp is 60F, BWI is close.  We are quite lucky to have places like Canaan etc that aren't too far away where their annual snowfall will probably keep ticking up - these are some of the snowiest places east of the Rockies.

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now this part here...for me, it's not necessarily about "offsetting" the past 7. Those are past now. But it's the fact that if we don't see a MECS or HECS this season, we may be waiting even longer than the 8 years we already have been. And overall, we may be waiting longer for an above average season if we don't get it here. I know I don't want to have to wait through two more ninas and who knows what else...so there is more worry than usual about this year producing...because there is a high degree of uncertainty beyond this year.

I get what you're saying about focusing on the here and now...I certainly did that last week. I enjoyed the heck out of those 8-9" (even made a snow angel...despite the fact that I forgot to move my legs...been awhile so I'm rusty :lol:).

I get that.  But one needs to step back and not assume that just because some indices or the Nino phase look unfavorable for awhile starting next year, that it means NOTHING in any particular winter season and everything is shit the blinds awful.  I'm not going to sit here and expect it will be great by any means.  But let's worry about next winter...or the next 8!...as they come.  Sure, we may have a sucky or more hostile look next year, but what if we get a lucky time or two where we get a decent or better snow event?  It could happen.  Nothing precludes that.  That's how I'm looking at it for now.

Snow angels?  Now that's something I haven't done for years!!!  LOL!!!

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1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I get that.  But one needs to step back and not assume that just because some indices or the Nino phase looks unfavorable for awhile starting next year, that it means NOTHING in any particular winter season and everything is shit the blinds awful.  I'm not going to sit here and expect it will be great by any means.  But let's worry about next winter...or the next 8!...as they come.  Sure, we may have a sucky or more hostile look next year, but what if we get a lucky time or two where we get a decent or better snow event?  It could happen.  Nothing precludes that.  That's how I'm looking at it for now.

Snow angels?  Now that's something I haven't done for years!!!  LOL!!!

exactly - we are still plenty north where you can have the right combo of cold air plus a juicy storm coming in - and we get blitzed.  I'm sure it will be that way for many years to come, it just won't happen as often.  It's just that snow is going to be less routine here - and it already wasn't that routine to begin with.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

 I agree it's not something to be overly worried about.  But I think its worth mentioning and taking note that the guidance is not aligning the snow output with what you would expect looking at the pattern.  

Given all the fails the last 7 years, even something like this kinda brings on the "Oh look the other shoe dropping" when other things seem to be looking better. Not sure I can fully enjoy any of the good looks now knowing there's even a tiny chance the snow means are a red flag since they line up with what you've been talking about. Man...this is enough to make you pull your hair out, because we're kinda on the edge here, needing this season to produce...but all this with the foreboding "this may not work anymore" and it's mildly stressful. I hope we can get our KU MECS/HECS despite everything!

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49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given all the fails the last 7 years, even something like this kinda brings on the "Oh look the other shoe dropping" when other things seem to be looking better. Not sure I can fully enjoy any of the good looks now knowing there's even a tiny chance the snow means are a red flag since they line up with what you've been talking about. Man...this is enough to make you pull your hair out, because we're kinda on the edge here, needing this season to produce...but all this with the foreboding "this may not work anymore". I hope we can get our KU MECS/HECS despite everything!

YOU WILL get your Kocin-Uccellini MECS HECS despite everything. 

It will be a mecs hecs KU, rolled into one EPIC storm and you will get snowed to death.

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16 hours ago, WVclimo said:

I gotta disagree with you on this one.  The people who constantly complain on this forum are much worse than the people who object to it.

Disagree personally. If you aren't sad when we don't get snow. Why are you here?  There is nothing wrong with venting. We have threads for it. It gets removed in the model thread.

 

So at this point, complaining about the complainers is some type of moral high road superiority thing. Clearly.

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27 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I think you mean the time that Gen. Washington surprised the Hessian troops at Pearl Harbor and prevented them from bombing it! :lol:

Off topic. But On Dec 31st at 2am we did the 13 mile march from Trenton to Princeton. Full gear and muskets sling. I did the whole thing, didn't once need to get in the chase car. I was proud of myself. My body held up. Without sleep, my mind started to go. I was thinking and saying things that didn't make sense. 

40  white dudes dressed in 18th century clothes walking through Trenton at 2am with guns just as the bars are letting out. Can you imagine the reaction that got? I can!

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32 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Disagree personally. If you aren't sad when we don't get snow. Why are you here?  There is nothing wrong with venting. We have threads for it. It gets removed in the model thread.

 

So at this point, complaining about the complainers is some type of moral high road superiority thing. Clearly.

I picture snow polyannas shouting down the cassandras in a desperate veiled attempt to deny their own insecurities while popping Xanax and Wellbutrin by the handful.  

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52 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Off topic. But On Dec 31st at 2am we did the 13 mile march from Trenton to Princeton. Full gear and muskets sling. I did the whole thing, didn't once need to get in the chase car. I was proud of myself. My body held up. Without sleep, my mind started to go. I was thinking and saying things that didn't make sense. 

40  white dudes dressed in 18th century clothes walking through Trenton at 2am with guns just as the bars are letting out. Can you imagine the reaction that got? I can!

I bet it would have been amusing to see a bunch of drunken people stumbling out of the bars, looking at you all...and wondering how they stepped out into the wrong century! :lol:

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1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Disagree personally. If you aren't sad when we don't get snow. Why are you here?  There is nothing wrong with venting. We have threads for it. It gets removed in the model thread.

 

So at this point, complaining about the complainers is some type of moral high road superiority thing. Clearly.

This motherfucker keeps repeating complain about the complainers, blah blah blah.   What about the people who complain about the complainers complaining about the whiney complainers?  Your problem is you have been constantly whiney and for years in almost every thread.   

Drive to upstate NY and save your complaining for next year.  See you then.  We will be bereft and inconsolable without your postings.....complaining.

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1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Off topic. But On Dec 31st at 2am we did the 13 mile march from Trenton to Princeton. Full gear and muskets sling. I did the whole thing, didn't once need to get in the chase car. I was proud of myself. My body held up. Without sleep, my mind started to go. I was thinking and saying things that didn't make sense. 

40  white dudes dressed in 18th century clothes walking through Trenton at 2am with guns just as the bars are letting out. Can you imagine the reaction that got? I can!

The material just keeps coming.  You can stay if you just keep posting like this.  It's a gift that keeps on giving.  

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